Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21-22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, Global stock market sentiments got boosted after the US Senate approved the debt-ceiling suspension till January 1, 2025, thereby, averting a default. The Senate voted 63-36 to approve the bill that was passed on Wednesday by the House of Representatives, as lawmakers raced against the clock following months of partisan bickering between Democrats and Republicans. In another development, Fed’s Patrick Harker signalled a pause in rate hike in June FOMC. On the data front, US Weekly unemployment claims rose to 232,000 vs 230,000 in the previous week. ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month to 46.9 in May vs 47.1 in April. On the flip side, European market look nervous after China reported weak economic data and it fuelled concerns about a global slowdown. The European Central Bank is widely expected to increase interest rates by another 25 basis points on June 15, adding to the combined 375 basis points of hikes over the past year to combat runaway prices. Recent data form China showed that Chinese manufacturing data showed further weakness. Even China's services sector also cooled off, further deflating hopes of a rebound.

Back at home, Domestic market looked enthusiastic with rotational buying seen across sectors including auto, banking and FMCG after strong earnings and expectations of a good monsoon. India's stock market capitalisation beat that of France to reclaim its spot as the world's fifth largest stock market, amid rapid revival in Adani Group stocks. Market is taking cues from the better-than-expected FY23 GDP growth rate. Besides other high frequency indicators such as like GST collections, manufacturing PMI, auto sales in May and impressive credit growth indicate a healthy and gradually improving economy. In the upcoming Monetary policy meeting, it is expected that the central bank would focus on two important aspects on headline retail inflation and a better than expected GDP growth print in Q4FY23. Besides, The MPC will continue with the 'pause' mode at its upcoming meeting. To note, the consumer price index (CPI) inflation moderated in April-23 to 4.70 per cent year-on-year (YoY), an 18-month low and remained within the RBI's target range (2-6 per cent) for the second consecutive month. Going forward, market will continue to take direction from the global and the domestic factors.

On the commodity market front, CRB slipped further on rise in dollar index. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The greenback still remained close to 10-week highs hit in May, buoyed by the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates. Buying returned in bullion counter after a three week fall. Gold experienced volatile movements but ultimately closed higher as buying returned after a three-week decline. The recovery in gold was fuelled by expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in June and positive developments in the U.S. debt ceiling bill. Conversely, energy prices fell due to a stronger dollar and weak data from China, which raised concerns about demand. Base metals saw mixed performance, with zinc and lead prices declining while aluminum remained stable and copper rebounded slightly. Economic recovery in China showed signs of slowing down, impacting industrial metal prices. Zinc inventories also increased, indicating a surplus due to rising supply and weak demand. Castor prices decreased due to lack of export demand, while cotton oil seed cake and cotton candy prices recovered. Guar prices ended on a bearish note due to falling crude oil prices and sluggish export demand. Jeera prices saw buying interest, but dhaniya and turmeric remained weak.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • India’s Gross domestic product grew 6.1 percent year-on-year, following a 4.5 percent growth in the previous three-month period. Economists had forecast growth of 5.0 percent. In the corresponding period last year, the economy had grown 4.0 percent
  • According to a survey from S&P Global, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, rose to 58.7 in May from 57.2 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The expected score was 56.5.
Information Technology
  • Tata Elxsi has partnered with Cultos Global to integrate a Blockchain mechanism from Cultos Global with its TETHER Connected Vehicle Platform, to create an innovative Driver Reward Program. This unique proposition of tracking driver behaviour using rich analytics from the cloud-first TETHER connected vehicle platform, augmented with ADAS and driver monitoring features, enables an entirely new way of positively impacting driver behaviour, incentivised through a high-trust and high-privacy blockchain model.
Defence
  • Paras Defence and Space Technologies has entered into a joint venture agreement with Israel-based CONTROP Precision Technologies. Both will undertake business of manufacturing, implementation/installation, integrated logistics support, after sale support, training etc., in the electro optic (EO)/infra-red (IR) field in accordance with the Government of India’s Make in India initiative.
Pharmaceuticals/ Healthcare
  • Lupin announced a strategic collaboration with Enzene Biosciences to launch Cetuximab in India, the first biosimilar developed for Cetuximab. Cetuximab has received approval from the Drug Controller General of India (DCGI) for treating head and neck cancer, particularly Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). Cetuximab is available as a 100mg vial.
  • Laurus Labs has signed definitive agreements to acquire additional stake of 7.24% in Immunoadoptive Cell Therapy (lmmunoACT), an advanced cell and gene therapy company, for Rs 80 crore.
  • Sun Pharmaceutical announced that its new drug application (NDA) of tildrakizumab injection, used to cure adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis was approved by the Chinese health authority.
  • Aster DM Healthcare has entered hospital operation and management agreement with 130-bed Padmavathy Medical Foundation, based in Kollam, Kerala.
Capital Goods
  • Inox Wind secured a 150 megawatt (MW) wind energy project from NTPC Renewable Energy Limited (NTPCREL) in Gujarat. With this, the total orders awarded to Inox Wind from NTPC to date stands at 550 MW.
Power
  • NHPC has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Vidhyut Utpadan Company (VUCL), Nepal for joint development of Phukot Karnali HE Project (480 MW), which is a run-of-the-river hydropower project situated in Kalikot district of Karnali Province, Nepal.
  • SJVN Limited signed a project development agreement of 669 MW Lower Arun Hydro Electric Project in Nepal. The company is also developing 217 km long associated transmission network for power evacuation and export to India.

PIVOT SHEET

MACRO ECONOMIC METER

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US construction spending surged by 1.2 percent to an annual rate of $1.908 trillion in April after rising by 0.3 percent to a revised rate of $1.885 trillion in March. Economists had expected construction spending to inch up by 0.2 percent.
  • US initial jobless claims crept up to 232,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 230,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 235,000 from the 229,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US consumer confidence index edged down to 102.3 in May from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to slip to 100.0 from the 101.3 originally reported for the previous month.
  • Eurozone inflation eased sharply to a 15-month low in May largely due to a fall in energy prices. Inflation eased to 6.1 percent in May from 7.0 percent in April. The rate was forecast to slow to 6.3 percent. This was the lowest rate since February 2022, when inflation was 5.9 percent.
  • The monetary base in Japan was down 1.1 percent on year in May, coming in at 672.732 trillion yen. That beat expectations for a decline of 1.4 percent following the upwardly revised 1.7 percent contraction in April (originally - 1.9 percent).
  • According to the survey results from S&P Global, China's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in three months in May as strong new orders boosted production. The Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index picked up to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April. The reading was forecast to remain unchanged at 49.5.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

THERMAX LIMITED
CMP: 2387.25
Target Price: 2733
Upside: 14%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 2678.50/1830.35
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 28445.59
  • EPS (Rs.) 37.79
  • P/E Ratio (times) 63.17
  • P/B Ratio (times) 7.35
  • Dividend Yield (%) 40.38
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Thermax Limited, a leading energy and environment solutions provider, is one of the few companies in the world that offers integrated innovative solutions in the areas of heating, cooling, power, water and waste management, air pollution control and chemicals. Thermax has manufacturing facilities in India, Europe and Southeast Asia.
  • As on 31 March 2023, Thermax Group had an order balance of Rs 9,752 crore, up 10.67% YoY. Order booking for the quarter was 33.63% lower at Rs 2,254 crore. The order book last year was higher due to a significant order of Rs 1,176 crore booked for a sulphur recovery block, and an order of Rs 546 crore was received for a flue gas desulphurisation system. The Company is focusing on order conversion to achieve faster growth rate and higher scale.
  • Enquiry pipeline from metal, sugar/distillery, food & beverages sectors continues to be strong. Strong order flow such as received multiple orders to set up bio- CNG plants and an order from a public sector company to renovate and modernise ESP. It is also building a green energy portfolio, where order inflows grew by 28% in the March quarter, resulting in a 66% jump in the order book for that segment.
  • The company sees good opportunities in exports market such as Europe, Africa etc. along with healthy inquiry pipeline from biomass, waste to energy, etc. China + 1 strategy is showing some pickup with orders for Waste to energy equipment, which earlier went to China is now coming to India.
  • The government capex push in the Budget and support to green technologies is expected to further spur the company’s clean energy portfolio. Moreover, India's steel sector would experience good growth due to significant increases in government capital expenditures on infrastructure and transportation.
  • It has reported 52% YoY rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 156 crore on a 16% YoY increase in consolidated operating revenue to Rs 2310 crore for the fourth quarter of FY 2022-23. The PAT was driven by good performance in all three segments - industrial products, industrial infra, and chemicals.

Risk

  • Fluctuation in commodity prices
  • Slowdown in economy

Valuation

The Company is focussed on leveraging its brand to strengthen current relationships through new offerings, enhancing capital allocation, margin improvement and seeking new development options with worldwide partnerships. It is investing in green and clean technology and expanding its product portfolio. According to the management, the company is entering a phase where its mix of work would change over the next couple of years with opportunities emerging in the climate and energy transition space. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 2733 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a one year average P/BVx of 7.27x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.375.97E.

P/B Chart

PHOENIX MILLS LIMITED
CMP: 1484.00
Target Price: 1725
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1620.00/989.60
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 26507.45
  • EPS (Rs.) 44.89
  • P/E Ratio (times) 33.06
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.16
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.16
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • P hoenix Mills is India's largest retail led mixed-use developer. Its operations span across most aspects of real estate development; planning, execution, marketing, management, maintenance & sales. The group has real estate assets in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, Pune, Raipur, Agra, Indore, Lucknow, Bareilly & Ahmedabad.
  • Recently, it opened its new mall in Ahmedabad bringing 250 national and international brands under one roof. The mall is developed in equal partnership with Ahmedabad-based realtor B Safal Group. It now has 8.8 million sq ft of operational retail space across eight cities in India.
  • It is gearing up for the launch of its second malls in the cities of Pune and Bangalore respectively. The construction at Phoenix Mall of Asia, Bangalore is progressing well. Phoenix Mall of the Millennium at Wakad, Pune is also on track and expected to commence operations by Q2 FY24 with the offices forming part of the mixed development set for launch in Fy25.
  • Phoenix Citadel, Indore, which was launched in December 2022, is showing steady ramp up in trading occupancy and is now at 79% versus 42% in the first month of its operations.
  • It is also planning to open a second mall in Surat. According to the management it has acquired land for the Surat project and is getting other required approvals for it. The project will have retail space of around 1 million sq ft and is expected to come up in the next three years.
  • Income from operations for Q4 FY23 is at Rs. 729 crores, up 47% year-on-year and up 83% over Q4 FY20. EBITDA for Q4 FY23 was at Rs. 431 crores, up 79% yearon- year and up 111% over Q4 Fy20.
  • In FY2023, garments production up by 7.35% YoY to 133.23 mn garments from 124.11 mn garments. The garment sales volume of improved from 121.56mn garment last year to 128.14mn garment. According to the management the same is expected to improve to 147mn in Fy2024.

Risk

  • Regulatory, taxation and environmental risks
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

The company has reported strong business growth and it expects the momentum to continue in FY2024 on the back of the launch of two new malls within the next six months, a sustained consumption growth in existing malls, ramp up at existing malls in Chennai, Pune and Kurla on account of increase in trading area and consumption growth in its newly launched malls. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1725 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on three year average P/BV of 3.36x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.513.26.

P/BV Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

INFO EDGE (INDIA) LIMITED (NAUKRI)

The stock closed at Rs 4266 on 02ndJune, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs.3308.20 on 14th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.4624.90 on 26th August, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 3899.

Stock can be seen trading under pressure since last two years as prices have witnessed a series of decline from 7200 levels to 3300 levels. On broader charts, the stock formed a “Double Bottom” pattern around 3300 levels and bounced sharply thereon to reclaim a fresh move above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly interval. At current juncture, stock has given a fresh breakout above the falling trend line of declining channel. The breakout has been witnessed with marginally higher volumes, which suggest a long build up into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 4250-4270 levels for the upside target of 5000-5050 levels with SL below 3700 levels.

APOLLO HOSPITALS ENTERPRISE LIMITED (APOLLOHOSP)

The stock closed at Rs 1138 on 26th May, 2023. It made a 52- week low at Rs 877.35 on 15th July, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.1156.65 on 03rd February, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1069.

From last six months, the stock has been consolidating in broader range of 4900-4150 levels as big wild swings kept the stock volatile over the period of months. At current juncture, fresh breakout in prices have been witnessed, after a period of prolong consolidation phase. The sudden spike in volumes, alongside suggests strength in current move. Additionally, positive divergences on secondary oscillators on daily and weekly charts also supports for next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 4900-4950 levels for the upside target of 5450-5500 levels with SL below 4550 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets remained volatile in the week gone by and ended the week almost near an unchanged line as Nifty closed above 18500 levels, whereas Bank Nifty closed around 44000. On weekly basis, Auto, FMCG & Pharma sector performed well whereas profit booking was seen in energy stocks. From the derivative front, highest call writing was observed at 18600 strike whereas on put side the highest open interest concentration is held at 18500 strike. In banknifty, highest call & put open interest concentration is at 44000. The implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 9.99%, while that for put options closed at 10.59%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 11.60%. The PCR OI for the week closed at 1.38. Technically, both the indices are struggling to give a fresh move above their key resistance levels. However, the bias is still in favor of bulls as fresh round of buying gets emerge from lower levels. We recommend traders to keep focus on stock specific action for upcoming week as Index is likely to remain on a volatile path, as we expect some wild intraday moves in upcoming sessions. On downside 18400-18350 zone can provide some support to Nifty while 18650-18700 zone can add some supply to keep a cap on any sharp upside.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 01st June, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric June futures are likely to trade on positive bias on supply concerns. Supplies are below normal due to lower production in major producing states. Arrivals are yet to pick up in Maharashtra that keeping prices up. Shortage of premium quality of produce is prompting millers and stockists to buy good quality at higher cost. About 114.5 thousand tonnes has been arrived so far since Apr’23 to so far in May’23 at major APMC mandies as compared to 134.1 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, arrivals surged up in second half of May’23 due to fair realization but quality of the crop is questionable. Reports of crop damage are coming out due to unseasonal rainfall in Maharashtra that raised the worries over actual production. Production is expected to be revised down in Maharashtra wherein forecast of bleak monsoon has raised concerns over upcoming crop as well. Acreages under turmeric may shift to other kharif crops that will lead to fall in production. However, heavy stocks will cap the excessive gains. Turmeric June contract is expected to trade in range of 7800-8350 levels.

Jeera NCDEX June futures are expected to remain down in upcoming week due to subdued demand in local market. Surging imports at cheaper rate and increased seasonal supply is likely to weigh on prices. Due to higher prices, export dropped from India; India exported about 176 thousand tonnes in FY 2022-23 as compared to 204 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, government official data showed that export increased in Mar’23 due to festive buying amid prevailing crop concerns. Major trend is still bullish due to tighter carryover stocks and below normal arrivals in the market. Quality of the new crop is also questionable after recent rainfall in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Jeera June futures are expected to trade in range of 41000-47500 levels.

Dhaniya NCDEX June prices are likely to remain under pressure due to adequate supplies in the market. Surging arrival pressure at major trading centers is likely to keep prices down. Overall dhnaiya production is estimated to increase by 8%- 10% across India that will keep supplies adequate in coming weeks. However, losses are likely to be limited as prices are ruling near to 2 years low that will spark fresh buying in the market. Short covering can be seen at futures platform any time so cautious selling is recommended. Dhaniya NCDEX June futures are likely to trade in range of 6000-6600 levels.

BULLIONS

Gold prices experienced a notable surge, recording their biggest weekly gain in nearly two months. The combination of a weaker dollar and growing expectations of a pause in the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign contributed to the renewed appeal of bullion. In the week by, gold prices rose by 1.7%, marking the strongest performance since the week ending April 7. The sentiment in the gold market remains positive, and there is potential for further upward movement as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates unchanged in June. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker expressed his view that interest rates should not be raised at the upcoming meeting, despite the persistently slow pace of inflation decline. Market probabilities now indicate a 73.7% likelihood of rates remaining unchanged. The decline in the dollar index to a one-week low further supported gold prices, as it made the precious metal more affordable for buyers holding other currencies. Additionally, the successful passage of bipartisan legislation by the U.S. Senate, lifting the government's debt ceiling, averted the risk of a historic default. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, typically loses appeal when interest rates rise. However, the current dynamics in the gold market, including a softer dollar and hopes for a pause in Fed tightening, have fuelled optimism among investors, contributing to the recent surge in gold prices. Comex gold is encountering robust support around the $1930 mark, while facing resistance near the $2000 level. Similarly, silver is finding support around $22.650 and encountering resistance near $24.700. Ahead in the week, MCX Gold may trade in the range of 59000-61500 levels whereas MCX Silver may trade in the range of 70000-76000 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices experienced significant volatility throughout the week due to concerns over the U.S. debt ceiling and uncertainty surrounding the OPEC+ meeting. Prices initially declined amid worries about the debt ceiling pact and mixed messages from major producers. However, after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Debt Ceiling bill, prices rebounded from their lows. Despite the rebound, crude oil prices still recorded negative returns on a weekon- week basis. The market remains cautious as uncertainties persist regarding supply dynamics and the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting. Traders and investors will closely monitor developments in Congress and the decisions made by major oil producers to assess the future direction of crude oil prices. The market's focus has also shifted to a June 4 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, collectively called OPEC+. U.S. crude oil stockpiles experienced an unexpected increase last week. This was driven by a surge in imports and a decline in strategic reserves, which reached their lowest level since September 1983, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to witness both side movements and trade in the wide range of 5500-6100. Natural gas prices witnessed a bearish rally, due to warmer weather in the Northeast, resulting in reduced heating demand. US natural gas inventories rose by 110 Bcf, the largest weekly increase since January 2023, surprising analysts. Ahead in the week, prices may post some recovery from the lower levels but main trend remains on the bearish side and the possible trading range would be 160-185 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may witness lower lever buying as investors are encouraged due to the passing of the U.S. debt ceiling bill. The U.S. Senate passed the bipartisan legislation backed by President Joe Biden that lifts the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. However, demand concerns and a gloomy global economic outlook may offset optimism from the U.S. debt ceiling deal. The counter is already facing downside pressure stemming from recession risks, a lack of solid demand growth in top consumer China, as well as rising domestic supply on the back of ample raw materials. Contracting manufacturing activity and slumping industrial profits in China have turned investors bearish. Copper may trade in the range of 700-735 levels. Copper prices are likely to continue to be dictated by the pace of China's economic recovery as well as the Fed’s interest rate hiking path. Global copper prices are set to fall to $7,000 per tonne in the second half of this year, Chinese research firm Antaike predicted, as heightened risks of recession and a lack of solid demand growth in top consumer China weighed. Zinc can trade in range of 200-220. The total LME inventories of zinc are at a oneyear peak to 87,500 tonnes, the strongest level since May 2022, indicating surpluses of the metal used to galvanise steel. Lead can move in the range of 177-186 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 204-215 levels. Steel long (June) is likely to trade in the range of 45000-47000 levels with bearish bias on NCDEX . The steel prices are set to bend under the combined weight of a slowdown in global demand, influx of cheap imports from far-eastern Asia and Russia.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton prices are likely to keep its firmness intact due to reduced supplies. Growing worries over upcoming crop numbers due to bleak monsoon prospects in year 2023 will support firmness in prices. Sowing acreages has been far behind to the target in Punjab due to weather concerns that will lead to fall in production in upcoming season. Cotton Association of India (CAI) lowered its cotton crop estimate by 465,000 bales for the 2022-23 season to 29.8 million bales as production is expected to decline in Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Odisha. The latest estimate of cotton crop is the lowest since 2008-09 season which was 29.0 million bales. Cotton is likely to trade in range of 56500 -60000 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1500-1570 levels.

Guar seed June futures are likely to trade down due to subdued demand. Heavy stocks of guar seed and bleak demand prospects of gum in wake of weakness in crude oil prices is likely to put pressure on prices. However, rising possibilities of drier spell of monsoon in year 2023 due to developing chance of an El Niño weather phenomenon will cap the excessive losses. Drier monsoon is likely to directly affect the sowing progress and yield of guar seed in year 2023. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5200-5600/5800 in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 9500-11000 levels.

Mentha oil June contract is likely to trade sideways to higher with shrinking supplies in the market. However, gains will be limited due to reports of tumbling export of menthol from India. India exported about 12.7 thousand tonnes of menthol during FY 2022-23 as compared to 19.7 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 36% Y-o-Y. Improved sowing number will also weigh on prices. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 945-1000 levels.

Castor seed prices are likely to remain under pressure due to adequate supplies. Higher production and limited export demand of castor oil will cap the major upside movement. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Y-o-Y. Castor seed June prices are likely to trade in range of 5350-5900 levels.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 778.85
M*.Low: 695.80

It closed at Rs. 715.90 on 01st Jun 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 720.11. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.074. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 715 for a target of Rs. 738 with the stop loss of 704

ALUMINIUM MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 217.85
M*.Low: : 203.35

It closed at Rs. 208.50 on 01st Jun 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 207.91. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 64.499. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 208 for a target of Rs. 216 with the stop loss of 203.

TURMERIC NCDEX
Contract: AUG
M*.High: 9068.00
M*.Low: 7746.00

It closed at Rs. 8030.00 on 01st Jun 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 8129.54. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.651. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 8150 for a target of Rs. 7600 with the stop loss of 8420.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India's manufacturing PMI rose from 57.2 in April to 58.7 in May on strong demand, according to Reuters reports.
  • India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 6.1 per cent in the last quarter of the previous fiscal. Further, the Centre now estimates the overall growth rate of FY23 to be 7.2 per cent
  • India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to a fresh all-time high in May as the world’s third-largest oil consumer imported close to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of the commodity from Russia.
  • Cabinet Approves Rs 1 Lakh Crore Programme For World’s Largest Grain Storage Plan In Cooperative Sector
  • Government Slashes Import Tariffs On Palm Oil, Gold, And Silver.
  • Wheat procurement during the ongoing Rabi Marketing Season 2023-24 till 30.05.2023 is 262 Lakh Metric Ton which has already surpassed last year’s total procurement by 74 Lakh Metric Ton.
  • Pipeline natural gas exports to Europe by Russian energy group Gazprom declined by 14.7% in May from April: Reuters.
  • India’s copper imports witnessed a 15 per cent year-onyear jump in financial year 2022-23. As per Commerce Ministry data, India imported 2,75,341 tonnes of copper in the previous financial year

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB slipped further on rise in dollar index. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. The greenback still remained close to 10-week highs hit in May, buoyed by the prospect of higher-for-longer U.S. rates. Gold saw see-saw movements and finally closed in green. Buying returned in bullion counter after a three week fall. Gold extended a recovery from two-month lows amid resurgent bets that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in June, while a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling drew closer towards passing after being approved by the House of Representatives. Rising interest rates push up the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, weighing on investor demand. Energy counter surrendered its previous gain. Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and weak data from top oil importer China that Fed demand fears. Chinese data showed manufacturing activity contracted faster than expected in May, as weakening demand cut the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) down to 48.8 from 49.2 in April, lagging a forecast of 49.4.

Base metals moved in different directions. Zinc and lead prices moved down whereas aluminium was in range. Copper prices rebound marginally. Recent data showed that a post-reopening economic recovery in China was running out of steam, while manufacturing activity in the U.S. and euro zone was also slowing substantially. This weighed heavily on industrial metal prices, with copper sinking to a near seven-month low in May, however it recovered from the low. Zinc inventories in London Metal Exchange-registered warehouses nearly doubled since last week to a one-year peak after a shipment arrived in Malaysia, data published by the exchange showed on Wednesday. Steady arrivals of metal into storage facilities indicate there are surpluses of the metal used to galvanise steel due rising supply and weak demand from the construction sector.

On lack of export demand, castor prices slashed further. Cotton oil seed cake and cotton candy prices recovered from the three week low on growing worries on crop numbers on rising fear of occurrence of El Nino. Guar counter was unable to move up and closed the week on bearish note on fall in crude oil prices, sluggish export demand amid ample stocks with farmers. In spices, buying returned in jeera whereas dhaniya and turmeric remained traded weak.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

16

COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

3rd Advance Estimates for 2022-23 …. “Surpassing all records”

As per third Advance Estimates for 2022-23, the production of Foodgrains in the country is estimated at record 3305.34 lakh tonnes which is higher by 149.18 lakh tonnes than the production of foodgrain during 2021-22. Record output is also estimated for each individual crop such as Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybean, Rapeseed & Mustard and Sugarcane during the 2022-23, agriculture ministry said in a statement. The Ministry had set a target of achieving 328 mt foodgrain in this agricultural year.

The record production clearly outlines the tireless hard work & courage of farmers against rising cost of input and went out for higher sowing in the kharif and Rabi season as well as, research by agricultural scientists, and farmer-friendly policies of the Central Government. The government had gone for taking revolutionary steps to strengthen agriculture infrastructure and economic condition of the farmers.

As per Third Advance Estimates, the estimated production of major crops for 2022-23 is as under:

  • Total production of Rice during 2022-23 is estimated at record 1355.42 lakh metric tonnes. It is higher by 60.71 lakh tonnes as compared to previous year.
  • The production of Wheat in the country is estimated at record 1127.43 LMT which is higher by 50.01 lakh tonnes as compared to previous year’s production.
  • Production of Maize in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 359.13 lakh metric tonnes which is higher by 21.83lakh tonnes than the previous year production.
  • Production of Nutri / Coarse Cereals is estimated at 547.48lakh tonnes which are higher by 36.47 lakh metric tonnes than the previous year’s production.
  • The production of Moong is estimated at 37.40 lakh metric tonnes which higher by 5.74 lakh metric tonnes as compared to previous year’s production.
  • Total Pulses production during 2022-23 is estimated at 275.04 lakh metric tonnes which is higher by 2.02 lakh tonnes than previous year’s production of 273.02 lakh metric tonnes.
  • The production of Soybean and Rapeseed & Mustard is estimated at149.76 lakh metric tonnes and 124.94 lakh metric tonnes respectively, which is higher by 19.89 lakh metric tonnes and 5.31 lakh metric tonnes respectively than the production of previous year 2021-22.
  • Total Oilseeds production in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 409.96 lakh metric tonnes which is higher by 30.33 lakh tonnes than the previous year’s oilseeds production.
  • Total production of Sugarcane in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record4942.28 lakh metric tonnes. The production of sugarcane during 2022-23 is higher by 548.03 lakh metric tonnes than the previous year’s production.
  • Production of Cotton is estimated at 343.47 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) and production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at94.94 lakh bales (of 180 kg each).

With record production continuously in the last 8 years, India has comfortable stocks of foodgrain that are not only providing confidence against the current global food crisis but the world is also looking towards India to fight the crisis. Though India has banned the export of wheat to avoid the hoarding of food grain by many countries, however, the government has promised the many countries to provide enough foodgrain on basis of government to government deals.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee strengthened to a more than twoweek high this week and even recorded its highest intraday gains in two months on Thursday. This surge came after the market's expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike during the June 13-14 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting shifted from a hike to a pause. As a result, the modest upside momentum in the rupee is expected to continue for next week. However, we can expect the downside cap for USDINR around 82.00 as well. Parallelly the US dollar faced its largest daily loss in nearly a month against a basket of currencies notably against pound. This decline was influenced by the release of US manufacturing data and statements from Federal Reserve officials, which reinforced the belief that the central bank is likely to forgo an interest rate hike in its upcoming meeting. This decline came after investors scaled back their expectations of a rate increase this month. Going forward, we think the upside in euro and pound may get a cap as shifts in rate expectations cam turn around quickly to favor dollar over major currencies as US economic data still has scope to outperform the Eurozone and the UK on a relative basis.

USDINR (JUN)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.70 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.90 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.50 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.72.

One can sell near 82.50 for the target of 81.70 with the stop loss of 82.90.

GBPINR (JUN)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 102.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 104.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 102.64. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.63.

One can buy near 103.00 for the target of 104.00 with the stop loss of 102.50.

EURINR (JUN) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 88.18 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 89.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 88.90. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.35.

One can buy near 88.60 for the target of 89.60 with the stop loss of 88.10.

JPYINR (JUN) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 58.80 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 60.40 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 60.06. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.15.

One can sell near 59.80 for the target of 58.80 with the stop loss of 60.30.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

IKIO Lighting's Rs 607-crore IPO to open on June 6

The Rs.607-crore initial public offering of IKIO Lighting will open for public subscription on June 6. The company has fixed the price band at Rs.270 to Rs.285 per share. The issue will close on June 8. The public issue of IKIO, a LED lighting manufacturer, comprises a fresh issue of equity shares worth Rs.350 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 90 lakh shares by the existing shareholders. Investors can bid for a minimum of 52 equity shares and in multiples of 52 thereafter. Under the OFS, promoters Hardeep Singh will offload 60 lakh shares, and Surmeet Kaur will sell about 30 lakh shares. For the nine months ended December 31, 2022, the company's revenue from operations stood at Rs.328.63 crore, and profit after tax stood at Rs.51.35 crore. The company posted a revenue growth of 55.47% to Rs.331.84 crore in FY22. Its profit after tax has jumped 75.37% from Rs.28.81 crore in FY21 to Rs.50.52 crore in FY22. Some of its peers include Dixon Technologies, Amber Enterprises, Syrma SGS Technology, and Elin Electronics. Motilal Oswal Investment Advisors is the sole bookrunning lead manager. The company had filed its draft papers in October last year and received regulatory approval in December.

Nexus Select Trust lists at 3% premium on expected lines

Nexus Select Trust was listed with a decent premium of 3 percent over the issue price of Rs 100 per unit on the National Stock Exchange on May 19. This is the fourth REIT listing on the bourses since 2019. The initial public offering of India’s leading consumption center platform with 17 best-in-class urban consumption centers across 14 cities had received a healthy response from investors last week subscribing 5.45 times as the portion set aside for institutional investors was subscribed 4.81 times and that of non-institutional investors 6.23 times during May 9-11. Nexus Select Trust, India's first retail assets-focused REIT sponsored by global investment giant Blackstone, has raised Rs 3,200 crore via public issue, of which fresh issue proceeds of Rs 1,400 crore will be utilised for repaying debts of the asset SPVs and the investment entity; acquisition of stake and redemption of debt securities in certain asset SPVs; and general corporate purposes. The rest of Rs 1,800 crore was an offer for sale issued by unitholders. The price band for the offer was Rs 95-100 per unit. Nexus has a well-diversified tenant base of 1,044 domestic and international brands with 2,893 stores as of December 2022 and is also well-diversified across cities with no single asset and tenant contributing more than 18.3 percent and 2.8 percent of total gross rentals for December 2022.

Happy Forgings plans up to Rs 1,200 crore IPO

Auto-ancillaries company Happy Forgings Limited is reportedly planning to launch an IPO to list its shares on the Indian bourses and raise around Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,200 crores. Happy Forgings Limited is an auto component manufacturer headquartered in Ludhiana. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is one of the largest full services suppliers of forged engine and driveline components in India.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

ITI Mutual Fund launches ITI Focused Equity Fund

ITI Mutual Fund has announced the launch of ITI Focused Equity Fund. The New Fund Offer or NFO is currently open for subscription and it will close on 12 June. ITI Focused Equity Fund will invest in a highly concentrated portfolio of 30 companies across market capitalisations. The minimum application amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The fund will be jointly managed by Dhimant Shah and Rohan Korde. ITI Focused Equity Fund will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 Total Return Index. The fund will invest predominantly in equity and equity-related securities of up to 30 companies across various market capitalisation. The NFO is suitable for those investors who are looking to invest with a long-term horizon.

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund launches Mirae Asset Silver ETF

Mirae Asset Mutual Fund has announced the launch of Mirae Asset Silver ETF, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking Domestic Price of Silver. The New Fund Offer (NFO) of the scheme is open and it will close for subscription on June 6. Scheme re-opens for continuous Sale & Repurchase on June 12. Mirae Asset Silver ETF will be managed by Ritesh Patel. During the NFO, an investor can invest a minimum of Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. To counter adverse movements in a particular asset or asset classes, investors can achieve effective diversification in their portfolios by incorporating alternative investments such as commodities. In India, investing in gold and silver ETFs are two most prominent investment strategies to gain exposure in commodity segment without the need to trade commodities or derivatives, the fund house said.

Kotak Mutual Fund launches Kotak NIFTY 200 Momentum 30 Index Fund

Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund has launched Kotak NIFTY 200 Momentum 30 Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/ tracking the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 Index. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on June 8. The scheme will open for sale and repurchase within five business days from the date of allotment. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against the NIFTY 200 Momentum 30 Index (Total Return Index). The scheme will be managed by Devender Singhal, Satish Dondapati, and Abhishek Bisen. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that, before expenses, corresponding to the total returns of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error. To achieve the investment objective, the scheme will follow a passive investment strategy with investments in stocks in the same proportion as in the Nifty 200 Momentum 30 Index. The investment strategy would revolve around reducing the tracking error to the least possible through rebalancing of the portfolio, taking into account the change in weights of stocks in the index as well as the incremental collections/redemptions from the scheme. The minimum subscription amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The minimum amount for monthly and quarterly SIP is Rs 500 (Subject to a minimum of 10 SIP installments of Rs 500 each). The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options.

UTI Mutual Fund launches UTI S&P BSE Housing Index Fund

UTI Mutual Fund has launched UTI S&P BSE Housing Index Fund, an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking S&P BSE Housing Total Return Index (TRI). The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on June 5. The scheme will open for purchase and redemption within five business days from the date of allotment. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against S&P BSE Housing TRI. The scheme will be managed by Sharwan Kumar Goyal and Ayush Jain. The investment objective of the scheme is to provide returns that, before expenses, correspond to the total return of the securities as represented by the underlying index, subject to tracking error. The minimum subscription amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The minimum SIP amount for daily, weekly, and monthly SIP is Rs 500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The minimum SIP amount for quarterly SIP is Rs 1,500 and in multiples of Rs 1 thereafter. The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options. The scheme will invest 95-100% in securities covered by the S&P BSE Housing Index and 0-5% in debt/ money market instruments including tri-party repo on government securities or treasury bills and units of liquid mutual funds.

NEW FUND OFFER

21

MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY - LARGE CAP FUND

EQUITY - MID CAP FUND

EQUITY - SMALL CAP FUND

EQUITY - TAX SAVING FUND

BALANCED ADVANTAGE FUND

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 01/06/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
22