Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets moved higher on the back of upbeat earnings. However, investors also remained concerned about inflation and the potential for recessions throughout world. Going forward, in the next meeting, Fed is expected to remain aggressive, expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points. European stock markets traded in a mixed fashion, as investors digested quarterly corporate earnings amid continued political and economic uncertainty. The ECB is widely expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its next meeting at the end of the month, adding to the total of 125 basis points of hikes already announced this year. Data released on Thursday showed that German producer prices rose by a massive 45.8% on an annual basis in September, up 2.3% in the month, showing sustained inflationary pressure in the economic pipeline. In another development, the Bank of Japan announced emergency bond-buying operations, offering to buy 100 billion yen ($666.98 million) worth of Japanese government bonds with maturities of 10-20 years and another tranche worth 100 billion yen with maturities of 5-10 years. Chinese stock market too remained weak as concerns about a weakening currency and economic woes dampened sentiment. Meanwhile, China’s central bank left its benchmark lending rates unchanged for a second consecutive month. The People’s Bank of China said it would hold the one-year loan prime rate at 3.65%, and the five-year rate at 4.30%, according to an announcement.

Back at home, healthy corporate earnings and softer crude oil prices supported buying, even though investors sentiments largely remained weak due to sharp increase in US yield, global market weakness, and unexpected drop in Indian rupee. Inflation and corporate earnings will continue to remain in focus. Going forward, Ukraine and Russian Saga, actions of major central banks, movement of crude Oil prices, Inflation and Zero Covid policy of China will continue give direction to both global as well as domestic markets. Going forward sectors such as banks, Capital Goods, Manufacturing will continue to remain favorite of investors whereas sectors like Oil & Gas and IT will continue to be less attractive.

On the commodity market front, Commodities continued to slip on bounce back in Dollar Index, increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine amid delayed Chinese GDP numbers. CRB breached the mark of 300 and closed near 291 levels. Gold and silver is expected to trade in a range of 48000-51000 and 54000-59500 levels respectively. Recent fall and festivals will attract more physical buying in gold. Crude can see downside level of 6800 and resistance is near 7350 levels. Base metals will move in a slim spread. GDP Growth Rate of China, Ifo Business Climate and GfK Consumer Confidence of Germany, CB Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders MoM, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index¸ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final and GDP Growth Rate of US, Inflation Rate of Australia, BoC Interest Rate Decision, ECB Interest Rate Decision and ECB Press Conference, BoJ Interest Rate Decision and BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report, GDP of Germany and Spain, Inflation of France and Germany etc are loads of data and events scheduled this week which will keep market participants on toes.

May this Diwali bring with it fresh hopes, brighter days and new dreams! Wishing you and your family a very happy Diwali!

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Defense
  • Bharat Electronics bags order worth Rs 8,060 crore for battery packs from Triton Electric Vehicle India. Triton Electric Vehicle India, a part of Triton Electric Vehicle LLC, USA, has issued a Letter of Intent to navratna defence PSU Bharat Electronics for 300 KW Li-ion battery packs for its semi-truck project in India at a value of Rs 8,060 crore. The battery packs will be delivered by the company to Triton in 24 months commencing from January 2023.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has launched a fixed-dose combination for the treatment of diabetes for patients with comorbidities. It has become the first company to launch Teneligliptin (20mg) + Dapagliflozin (5mg/10mg) fixeddose combination for the treatment of adult patients with type 2 diabetes.
Paint
  • Asian Paints announced Rs 2,100 crore of phased investment to set up a new plant to produce vinyl acetate ethylene emulsion (VAE) and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) in the country.
Metal
  • Jindal Steel & Power signs MoU with Greenko Group to facilitate 1,000 MW of carbon-free energy for its steel plant in Odisha. The company has signed an MoU with Greenko Group to facilitate 1,000 MW of carbon-free energy for its steel-making operations at Angul, Odisha. This is in line with its goal to become a net-zero steel company by 2035.
Automobile
  • Tata Motors has received an order for 200 electric buses which will be deployed in Jammu and Srinagar. The Mumbai-based auto major has won the tender of 200 electric buses floated by Jammu Smart City.
Retail
  • V-Mart Retail will acquire online marketplace LimeRoad, in a move which will help it expand its presence in the omni-channel space. The company has signed a business transfer agreement with AM Marketplaces and certain other parties for the acquisition of its LimeRoad business as a going concern. on a slump sale basis.
Healthcare
  • Aster DM Healthcare's Subsidiary Aster Pharmacies Group entered into a joint venture agreement with Abdulmohsen Al Hokair Holding Group to establish, manage and operate a pharmacy chain across the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to market and commercialize pharmaceutical products under the 'Aster Pharmacy' brand.
Power
  • SJVN Limited arm SJVN Green Energy and Assam's power Distribution Company APDCL have inked a pact to form a joint venture to set up 1,000 MW floating solar projects worth Rs 6,000 crore in Assam.
  • Adani Transmission has bagged a deal to install and maintain 10.80 lakh smart meters for BEST Undertaking. Sources pegged the deal value for the multi-year-old engagement by Adani Transmission's distribution platform at Rs 1,300 crore.
Realty/ Construction
  • Dilip Buildcon has received project worth Rs 702 crore from Gujarat Metro Rail Corporation. The completion period for the said project is 26 months.
  • Ahluwalia Contracts (India) has secured order from Government of Assam office for additional construction work of new medical college & hospital, Bongaigaon worth Rs 110.67 crore. The order inflow during the FY23 stands at Rs 3,011.76 crore.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims slipped to 214,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level of 226,000. The dip surprised economists, who had expected jobless claims to inch up to 230,000 from the 228,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US leading economic index fell by 0.4 percent in September after revised data showed the index was unchanged in August. Economists had expected the leading economic index to dip by 0.3 percent, matching the drop originally reported for the previous month.
  • US existing home sales slid 1.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.71 million in September after falling by 0.8 percent to a revised rate of 4.78 million in August. Economists had expected existing home sales to slump by 2.1 percent to a rate of 4.70 million from the 4.80 million originally reported for the previous month.
  • Consumer prices in Japan were up 3.0 percent on year in September. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the August reading
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

INDIAN LIMITED
CMP: 226.15
Target Price: 264
Upside: 17%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 224.25/130.15
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 28165.65
  • EPS (Rs.) 33.67
  • P/E Ratio (times) 6.72
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.73
  • Dividend Yield (%) 2.96
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The business of the bank has increased 9% YoY to Rs 1009454 crore ends June 2022, driven by 9% increase in advances to Rs 425203 crore. Deposits rose 8% to Rs 584251 crore at end June 2022.
  • Advances growth was driven by retail loans rising 14% YoY to Rs 80667 crore at end June 2022, while credit to agriculture increased 13% to Rs 90505 crore and and MSME 8% to Rs 73075 crore at end June 2022. The corporate credit has declined 2% to Rs 155113 crore ends June 2022.
  • It has recorded 6% increase in the interest earned at Rs 10153.66 crore, while interest expenses declined 0% to Rs 5619.68 crore in Q1FY2023. NII improved 14% to Rs 4533.98 crore in the quarter ended June 2022.
  • The CASA deposits of the bank moved up 8% YoY to Rs 237967 crore at end June 2022. The CASA ratio eased to 40.7% at end June 2022 compared to 40.9% at end June 2021, while declined from 41.8% a quarter ago.
  • The bank has improved asset quality in Q1FY2023, percentage of gross NPA as part of gross advances declined to 8.13 per cent from 8.47 per cent. Percentage of net NPAs also fell to 2.12 per cent from 2.27 per cent.
  • Provision coverage ratio (PCR) stood at 88.08% as of 30 June 2022 improved from 87.38% on 30th March 2022.
  • Capital Adequacy Ratio at 16.50%. Bank has improved the credit to deposit ratio to 72.8% at end June 2022 from 72.1% at end June 2021.

Risk

  • Unidentified Asset Slippages.
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets

Valuation

The bank has been consistently delivering on improving asset quality, cost efficiency, other income and productivity in the past few quarters. Its proactive tech integration ensured a smooth transition. It is one of the best mid-cap PSBs with strong capital ratios across cycles and ability to deliver relatively stronger return ratios as growth accelerates. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.264 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on one year average P/BVx of 0.69x and FY23 BVPS (Book Value Per Share) of Rs.382.02.

P/B Chart

H.G. INFRA ENGINEERING LIMITED
CMP: 575.00
Target Price: 677
Upside: 18%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 830.80/481.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 3747.34
  • EPS (Rs.) 53.32
  • P/E Ratio (times) 10.78
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.75
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.17
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • H.G. Infra Engineering is infrastructure construction, development and Management Company. The main business includes providing engineering- procurement-and-construction (EPC) services on a fixed-sum turnkey basis and undertaking civil construction and related infrastructure projects.
  • The current order book is around Rs.11507 crore providing good revenue visibility for coming years driven by Ganga Expressway sub-contracting EPC job (worth Rs.4,970.90 crore) secured during Q1FY23. To date, the company has bid a pipeline of Rs7000 crore consisting of 3 projects in roads, 2 in railways, and 1 each in water and metro.
  • The Management of the company expects good order inflows of Rs.9,000-10,000 crore during FY23, to be driven by a strong order pipeline in the roads segment and growing opportunities in the other infrastructure verticals such as railways and water supply. Moreover, it expects FY23 revenue to Rs.5000-6000 vs Rs.3615 crore FY22 levels and expects 15.5-16% EBITDA margins for FY23.
  • The management of the company is looking to monetize its 4 assets {3 projects (Gurgaon-Sohna, Rewari Ateli Mandi, and Narnaul Bypass) have already received COD and 1 (Rewari Bypass Package)} and is expected to be completed by end of FY23.
  • On the development front, it has secured a subcontracting job from Adani Road Transport for Ganga Expressway (Group-II) project (design length: 151.7 km) in Uttar Pradesh on an EPC basis which is to be completed in 27 months. Margin expectation is at 15% and management of the company expects execution on the project to begin by September 2022-end with receipt of the appointed date.
  • Moreover, the management of the company expects a reduction in debt to Rs.3000 crore-3500 crore during FY23. As on 30th June 2022, it has a debt of Rs.4500 crore. It has guided gross Capex of Rs140 crore for FY23 (Rs.4.50 crore incurred in 1Q) of which Rs4 crore will be funded through the sale of old equipment.
  • The company's consolidated net profit rose 8.3% to Rs 109.45 crore on 17.5% jump in net sales to Rs 1105.90 crore in Q1 FY23 over Q1 FY22.

Risk

  • Strict Operational and strategic regulation
  • Currency fluctuation

Valuation

The company is doing well with a healthy executable order book position and robust execution skills. Moreover, with the government's focus on expediting transportation projects via Gati Shakti Master Plan, the management expects healthy ordering activity to continue going ahead. Given the strong government push, the company expects robust financial growth. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.677 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BV of 2.5x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.270.94.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

ADITYA BIRLA FASHION AND RETAIL LIMITED (ABFRL)

The stock closed at Rs 331.10 on 21st October, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 221.30 on 20th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 351.75 on 30th September, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 284.82

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows. Apart from this, it is forming a Diamond pattern on weekly charts, which is bullish in nature. Although stock is still trading in range but its consolidation with high volumes indicates there may be a strong spurt in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 320-325 levels for the upside target of 365-375 levels with SL below 295 levels.

AMBUJA CEMENTS LIMITED (AMBUJACEM)

The stock closed at Rs 512.60 on 21st October, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 274.00 on 08th March, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 585.70 on 20th September, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 406.54

As we can see on chart that the stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows; sort of rising channel, which is bullish in nature. Apart from this, stock is forming a “Bullish Pennant” pattern and is likely to give the breakout of same. On the technical indicators front such as RSI and MACD, they are also suggesting buying for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 505-510 levels for the upside target of 580-600 levels with SL below 470 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Indian markets witnessed pre Diwali rally in the week gone by as Nifty surged more than 2% while Bank Nifty ended the week with gains of more than 3.5%. The rally got supported by Axis Bank, the surged more than 12% over the week and hit its 52 week high after Bank reported good set of numbers for the quarter ended September. From the derivative front, call writers remained active at 17600 & 17700 strikes while marginal put writing was observed at 17500 strike. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 16.25% while that for put options closed at 17.53%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 17.23%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.23. For upcoming week, we expect market to remain sideways and is likely to trade in defined range. Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 17350-17650 while Bank nifty could hover in range of 40500-41000 zone. Traders are advised to focus on stock specific action as index could remain sideways on the back of limited trading session next week.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top Long Buildup

Bottom Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 20th October, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric NCDEX (Nov) futures are likely to keep gains intact next week mainly due to prevailing supply concerns. Demand from stockists has improved in wake of lower production outlook for upcoming season. Apart from that, gains in turmeric is likely to be supported by emerging fear of yield losses sparked with recent heavy rainfall in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telengana. Area under turmeric has fallen by 13% Y-o-Y in year 2022 and now fear of yield losses will keep the market sentiments up for turmeric. Sowing activities have reached its last stage and overall area under turmeric in Andhra was Pradesh reported at 16921 Hec compared to 19376 Hectares of the previous year. Festive as well as the wedding season demand is likely to remain active that will firmness in prices. Arrivals are likely to remain lower due to lean arrival season. Considering the above fundamentals, prices are likely to hold the support of 7200 and are likely to move up gradually towards the 8000 level in coming week.

Jeera NCDEX Nov resumed its uptrend last week due to short covering at futures platform. Tightness in supplies and increased festive buying supported gains in prics. In wake of rise in festive as well as wedding season demand ahead, Jeera prices are likely to move up further in coming days. Export demand has been active due to global supply shortages wherein spices makers are covering their stocks in the wake of bleak supply outlook for next three months. Persistent demand from China also supporting firmness in prices as China accounts for 45% of total Indian export of jeera in Aug’22. Out of the total export of 23.47 thousand tonnes in Aug’22, about 10.62 thousand tonnes of jeera were imported by China. Jeera Nov futures prices are likely to sustain above to the support level of 23500 and expected to move towards the resistance of 24700

Dhaniya NCDEX Nov Prices are expected to trade mixed to higher in near term mainly due to active festive buying amid emerging fear of disruption in imports. Geopolitical tension between Ukraine and Russia has resurfaced again that result in to fall in imports from Russia and impact of same is likely to be seen on domestic dhaniya prices. India has imported about 15 thousand tonnes of dhaniya from Russia so far in year 2022. However, excessive gains in dhaniya will prompt stockiest to release their stocks as dhaniya prices are already ruling much higher compared to last year. Prices are likely to hold support of 11100 and will move towards the resistance of 11700.

BULLIONS

Gold prices were set for a second weekly decline as U.S. Treasury yields rose to multi-year highs following strong labour market data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, denting the bullion’s appeal. Gold slipped over 1.2% so far whereas silver prices still hold some gains. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields scaled a fresh peak since June 2008, while the dollar index ticked 0.1% higher. The Fed is only about halfway through their tightening cycle and there’s probably more room for rates to go up, gold would likely continue to drop. The market will keep a watch on inflation and jobs data and if they bring forward the markets estimate for a pause that will drive gold higher. Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, indicating the labour market remains tight a separate data showed U.S. existing home sales dropped for an eighth straight month in September. Swiss customs data showed that gold exports to top markets China and India increased in September, while shipments to Turkey rose to the highest since April 2013. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.19% to 930.99 tonnes. Ahead in the week, COMEX prices may continue to trade with bearish bias and prices likely to trade in the range of $1560-$1660 and silver may trade in the range of $17.20-$19.40. On MCX Gold may continue to trade with bearish bias where it may find support near 48600 and face resistance near 51400. Silver may continue to trade with bearish bias where it may trade in the wider range of 53500-58000 with higher volatility.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices were near flat as market participants weighed concerns about steep inflation with optimism that China could see energy demand tick up. To fight inflation, the US Federal Reserve is trying to slow the economy and will keep raising its short-term rate target. Meanwhile, Beijing is considering cutting the quarantine period for visitors to seven days from 10 days. China, the world's largest crude importer, has stuck to strict COVID-19 curbs this year, which weighed heavily on business and economic activity, lowering demand for fuel. OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the most significant curb since the start of the pandemic, while speculation grows that the oil cartel will further intervene in markets to shore up prices. U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed plans to release 15 million barrels from the U.S. strategic reserve by year's end, and threatened more to come as he seeks to negate high energy prices as an election topic ahead of the midterm elections on Nov. 8. Ahead in the week, prices are likely to witness both side movements where it may find support near 6650 and could possibly face resistance near 7250 levels. Natural gas prices witnessed a bear run as the weather is likely to be warmer than it was expected. We have already witnessed 80 points fall in the gas prices on MCX and prices break and sustain well below the psychological level of 50-day moving averages. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade with bearish bias sell on rise advised and the possibly trading range would be 420-500 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as the rising inflation in US & other economies, too, sparked fears of further rate hikes and a looming global recession which could threaten metals demand. Comments from Fed Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker bolstered concerns about the Fed hiking rates and potentially tilting the economy into a recession. China determined to stick with its strict COVID-19 rules threatened economic growth and clouded the demand outlook for metals. Copper may trade in the range 620- 670 level. The global copper market is expected to see a deficit of about 325,000 tonnes this year and a surplus of 155,000 tonnes in 2023, the International Copper Study Group said. Chinese refined copper buyers may increase their purchase of Russian metal amid expected rising premiums for copper sales to China in 2023 - seen between $150 and $210 a tonne over LME three-month price, and up from $105 in 2022 and $88 a tonne in 2021. Freeport-McMoRan executives gave a bullish demand outlook of copper due to its use in renewable energy products and said none of its customers have scaled back orders. Zinc can trade in the range of 260-285 level. Lead can move in the range of 174-185. Aluminum may trade in the range of 190-207 level. The price gain may continue to cap as overall supply is still healthy, with global primary aluminium supply rising 4.3% year-on-year in September to 5.7 million tonnes. Commodity trader Glencore has delivered significant amounts of Russian-origin aluminium to London Metal Exchange registered warehouses in Gwangyang, South Korea. Steel long is likely to trade in the range of 47800- 49400 on NCDEX.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton MCX Nov prices are expected to trade sideways to higher due to fear of yield losses in central part of India. Recent heavy rainfall in Maharashtra, Telangana and Gujarat has dampened the quality of standing cotton crop. Harvesting activities are likely to be delayed along with the yield losses. At the same time, improved export prospects backed by record depreciation of Indian rupee and rising seasonal demand of cotton are also likely to support recovery in cotton prices in coming week. Seasonal trend of export shows that about 30-40% of total cotton export from India is realized in Oct- Dec. Expected rise in export demand from Bangladesh and other SEA nations will restrict the major losses. Prices are likely to find support 27500 and will move up gradually towards 32500 in near term.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX (Dec) futures are likely to trade higher due to emerging buying in domestic market. Firmness is relative meal prices and emerging seasonal demand is likely to support gains in prices. Apart from that, cotton seed oil cake prices will track the gain in cotton prices and will move accordingly as cotton prices are moving up on emerging fear of crop losses due to recent rainfall in major cotton growing states. Prices are likely to hold the support of 2300 and will move towards 2600 in coming week.

Guar seed Nov futures are likely to trade sideways to higher due to ongoing short covering at futures platform. Buying activities have been improving at lower level that will prompt market participants to cover short positions. However, gains will be limited due to bumper crop outlook. Guar seed prices may hold the support of 4500 and is likely witness recovery towards 5100.

Mentha oil (Nov) is likely to trade on sideways due to limited trade at physical market. Prices are correcting down due to higher stocks estimates wherein buyers are active at every dip in prices. Going forward, losses are limited due to lower production. Prices are likely to hold support of 960 and will move gradually towards 1010 in near term.

Castor seed (Nov) prices are expected to remain under pressure on sluggish export outlook of castor oil. However, tighter pipeline stocks and lower production for year 2022-23 will cap the losses. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to hold the support of 6950 and will face the resistance of 7500 in near term.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD MCX
Contract: DEC
M*.High: 52120.00
M*.Low: 49810.00

It closed at Rs. 50143.00 on 20th Oct 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 50494.71. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.401. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 50000 for a target of Rs. 49000 with the stop loss of 50500.

NATURAL GAS MCX
Contract: NOV
M*.High: 612.80
M*.Low: 472.10

It closed at Rs. 479.70 on 20th Oct 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 541.21. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 22.617. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 490 for a target of Rs. 420 with the stop loss of 530.

STEEL LONG NCDEX
Contract: NOV
M*.High: 50650.00
M*.Low: 48790.00

It closed at Rs. 49200.00 on 20th Oct 2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 49411.14. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.631. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 49200 for a target of Rs. 48000 with the stop loss of 49800.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The global copper market is expected to see a deficit of about 325,000 tonnes this year and a surplus of 155,000 tonnes in 2023, the International Copper Study Group said.
  • The Union Cabinet approved the increase of Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for all Rabi crops for the marketing season 2023-24. The MSP for wheat has been increased by Rs 110 per quintal, for barley by Rs 100, for gram by Rs 105, for rapeseed and mustard by Rs 400 per quintal.
  • India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $25.71 billion in September 2022, as against $22.47 billion in September 2021, according to the latest data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
  • India’s import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the July- September quarter was the lowest since FY18 as record high prices and shrinking global spot supplies impacted inbound shipments.
  • India’s oilmeal export up 39% in H1 as rapeseed meal shipments double
  • Russia emerges as 2nd-biggest crude oil supplier to India; imports rise 18.5% in September
  • India's sugar output to be higher at 36.5 million tonnes in 2022-23 marketing season: ISMA
  • The Centre informed that at present 43.82 lakhs tonne of buffer stock of various pulses are available under Price Stabilization Fund (PSF) and Price Support Scheme.
  • India has allowed export-oriented units and the firms set up in Special Economic Zones to export flour made from imported wheat.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Commodities continued to slip on bounce back in Dollar Index, increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine amid delayed Chinese GDP numbers. CRB breached the mark of 300 and closed near 291 levels. Gold fell for second week; Silver saw little pause in the fall pressured by rising U.S. dollar and Treasury yields amid worries that the Federal Reserve will persist with sharp rate hikes. U.S. economic activity expanded modestly in recent weeks. With the latest data showing inflation continuing to run at more than three times the central bank’s 2% target, the report may do little to temper expectations for a fourth straight 75-basis-point rate hike next month. In energy counter, crude oil saw a bounce from the low whereas natural gas witnessed sharp fall. U.S. president Joe Biden said he plans to sell 15 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and repurchase oil, if prices fall enough. However, a looming European Union ban on Russian crude and oil products and the output cut from OPEC+, of 2 million barrels per day supported prices. U.S. crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week - down 1.7 million barrels, weekly government data showed, against expectations for a build of 1.4 million barrels. SPR levels fell 3.6 million barrels to just over 405 million, the lowest since May 1984. Base metals corrected further, except zinc. Selling continued in industrial metals on soaring inflation and the prospect of more interest rate hikes fuelled worries about the global economy and metals demand, while a strong dollar also weighed on the market. China recently signaled that it has no intention of phasing out its zero-COVID policy, which has severely disrupted manufacturing activity this year. The move brewed more uncertainty over the future of the world’s second-largest economy. But the country also maintained its accommodative monetary policy stance, while outlining more stimulus measures to help support growth.

Cotton oil seeds cake saw marginal bounce whereas kapas closed in red. Cotton traded weak. Mentha oil breached the support and was only few points shy away from 955. Castor seed was in range. There was no respite for guar counter and it saw continuous fall from more than a month on advancement of harvesting activities that will result in to rise in supplies at major trading centers. It was a strong week for spices, in which dhaniya and turmeric prices augmented whereas jeera recovered its weekly loss. Prevailing supply constrains in domestic market with prompt spices maker to buy jeera with every dip in prices. Uncertainty over imports due to Ukraine crisis is likely to keep Dhaniya prices volatile. Bleak production outlook for upcoming season supported firmness in prices as turmeric acreages has dropped in Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Energy Crisis creating economic slowdown

The world is facing many problems from geopolitical crisis to energy shortages, economic unrest and the rising danger of a nuclear war. So the world economy has entered into a time of heightened uncertainty and rising challenges, amid ongoing high inflation levels, monetary tightening by major central banks, high sovereign debt levels in many regions.

Energy prices – determined by the price of crude oil, natural gas and coal – began soaring last year as a result of COVID lockdowns being lifted, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this year. As the Russia-Ukraine conflict does not seem to end, uncertainty over the energy crisis continues to grow as Moscow suspends oil and natural gas supplies in response to sanctions imposed by the West while EU nations will stop buying Russian crude oil imported by sea from 5 December, and end purchases of Russian refined oil products by sea from 5 February next year. Overall, Russia has cut gas supplies to Europe by 88% over the past year. Facing global condemnation for its invasion of Ukraine and heavy economic sanctions, Russia has already ‘indefinitely closed’ Nord Stream 1, an underwater gas pipeline

Raising the supply concern, on October 4, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+ slashed oil production output by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in November, stating that the decision was based on the “uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks.

Russia exports of energy

Russia exports about 5m barrels a day of crude oil and about 3m barrels a day of refined oil products. These account for 40% of its total export revenues. The EU says its latest sanctions could cut the amount of oil it buys from Russia by 90%. However, this will take months to come into full effect, and even then Russia will be able to sell oil elsewhere in the world. India and China have both been buying more Russian crude in recent months.

Impact on global growth

In 2022, inflation became a global phenomenon—impacting 100% of advanced countries and 87% of emerging markets and developing economies. Energy price shocks due to supply concern have caused rising global inflation and tighter monetary conditions, slowing global growth. The International Energy Agency in its monthly report, has said that unrelenting inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes, have started taking their tolls by pushing the global economy into severe stress which is already on the brink of recession.

Rising food insecurity and social unrest

The rising cost of energy is straining family budgets, leaving little leeway to respond to the changes taking place in the changed global situations. High fuel and food prices are often correlated with mass protests, political violence, and riots. While Sri Lanka and Peru have already seen heightened riots, Turkey, Egypt and some European countries are also at risk for social unrest as the cost of living accelerates and food insecurity worsens.

Businesses shutting down on power crisis

With energy prices at decade-long highs, Europe’s most energy-intensive companies have begun to shut down. Dozens of plants across a diverse range of industries such as steel, aluminium, zinc & lead, fertilisers and the power industry itself have been forced to close up shop as sky-high gas and power prices make their businesses unprofitable.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

The Indian rupee recouped from its initial decline versus the U.S. dollar and was little changed on Friday, as traders assessed the outlook for the local unit after the previous day's choppy session. On Thursday, the rupee dropped to a record low, but managed to recover on likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India. The next big move could be on "either side", considering how "jumpy" the market will be, the trader said, adding the RBI had managed to arrest, at least temporarily, the rupee's downside momentum. The unexpected decline in U.S. initial jobless claims and further hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials had lifted Treasury yields to new multi-year highs. This reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve would keep opting for large rate increases. Futures had almost fully priced in another 75 basis points rate hike at the Fed's November meeting. Drawing support from the U.S. Treasury yields and the underlying trend, rupee forward premiums dropped. The 1-year implied yield plunged to 2.35%, the lowest since 2011. The UK’s Conservative Party is desperate to draw a line under Liz Truss’s disastrous premiership, following her resignation after just 44 days in office. A rapid leadership contest will be fought, with the winner having the unenviable task of overturning an unprecedented deficit in the polls. Here’s who could replace Truss, these are the dire economic conditions her successor will face, and this is how her weeks-long tenure stacks up against the shortest-serving UK prime ministers of the last 250 years.

USDINR (OCT)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upward trend for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.08 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 83.35 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.05 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.00.

One can buy at 82.40 for the target of 83.40 with the stop loss of 81.90.

GBPINR (OCT)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 91.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 93.73 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 92.03. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.78.

One can sell at 92.50 for the target of 91.50 with the stop loss of 93.00.

EURINR (OCT) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 79.91 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 81.61 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 80.44. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 52.67.

One can buy at 80.40 for the target of 81.40 with the stop loss of 79.90.

JPYINR (OCT) JPYINR (OCT) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downward trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 54.25 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 56.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 56.13. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 28.91.

One can sell at 55.25 for the target of 54.25 with the stop loss of 55.75.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

DCX Systems' Rs 500-cr IPO to open on Oct 31

The Rs 500-crore initial share-sale of DCX Systems, manufacturer of cables and wire harness assemblies, will open for public subscription on October 31. The three-day Initial Public Offering (IPO) would close on November 2, according to the Red Herring Prospectus (RHP). The company has cut the size of its fresh issue of equity shares to Rs 400 crore from Rs 500 crore planned earlier. Apart from fresh issue, the IPO comprises an offer for sale of equity shares to the tune of up to Rs 100 crore by promoters -- NCBG Holdings Inc and VNG Technology. The company proposes to utilise the net proceeds from the fresh issue towards debt payment, funding working capital requirements, investment in its wholly-owned subsidiary Raneal Advanced Systems to fund its capital expenditure expenses and general corporate purposes. The Bengaluru-based company is primarily engaged in system integration and manufacturing a comprehensive array of cables and wire harness assemblies, and are also involved in kitting. DCX Systems' revenue from operations grew at a CAGR of 56.64 per cent from Rs 449 crore in Fiscal 2020 to Rs 1,102 crore in Fiscal 2022. The company's order book has increased from Rs 1,941 crore as of March 31, 2020 to Rs 2,369 crore as of March 31, 2022.

Droneacharya Aerial Innovations files DRHP for SME IPO

Droneacharya Aerial Innovations filed DRHP with market regulator Sebi for their IPO on Thursday. The company will be issuing a total of 62.90 lakh equity shares of Rs 10 apiece via the book-building route. The equity shares of the company are proposed to be listed on BSE’s SME Platform (BSE SME). The proceeds from the proposed offering will be used by the company to purchase drones and other accessories, and for other general corporate expenses. For the year ended June 2022, the company reported a total income of Rs 3.08 crore and a net profit of Rs 72.06 lakh. Droneacharya Aerial Innovations, incorporated in the year 2017, is a full-fledged innovative data solution company which provides a complete ecosystem of drone solutions for multi-sensor drone surveys, data processing of Drone and robust high-configuration hardware for drone delivery, drone in a box solution for automated survey and surveillance and drone pilot training, along with GIS data processing, Python coding and industry-specific courses.

Tata-backed Cult.fit looking at IPO in 12-18 months

Fitness startup Cult.fit is aiming for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) in 12-18 months as its core gym business has turned in an operating profit. Cultfit’s revenue had also grown more than 50% compared to pre-Covid-19 levels. “The two businesses - our fitness and fitness products business - will lead the charge for Cult.fit over the next 12-18 months as we look towards turning completely profitable at an Ebitda level and as we look towards our IPO event in the next 12-18 months,” Naresh Krishnaswamy, business head said. Ebitda refers to a company’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation. The company - which counts Tata Digital and Zomato as investors - is doubling down on its core fitness and fitness products business for now, he added. “Other businesses like Mind.fit and some of our wellness categories like diagnostics have been put on the backburner; we are a lot more focussed on these two businesses and we want to get these two businesses near to profitability before we invest in any third or fourth business,” he said.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Bharat Bond ETFs cross Rs 50,000 cr AUM mark

Bharat Bond Exchange Traded Funds, a central government initiative, have crossed the Rs 50,000 crore asset under management mark in just two-and-a-half years, Edelweiss Mutual Fund said on Wednesday. The fund house manages Bharat Bond Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The overall passive debt category has crossed Rs 1.15 lakh crore mark at the industry level - this growth was kickstarted by the launch of the first tranche of the Bharat Bond ETF in December 2019, according to a statement. So far, five tranches of Bharat Bond ETFs have been launched. There are 5 different maturities offered by the fund ETFs -- 2023, 2025, 2030, 2031, and 2032 -- which can help investors to choose the right maturity according to their needs.

HSBC Mutual Fund receives SEBI approval to acquire L&T MF

HSBC Asset Management (India) has received approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to fully acquire L&T Investment Management Limited (LTIM), subject to certain conditions and approval. LTIM is a wholly-owned subsidiary of L&T Finance Holdings Limited (LTFH) and the investment manager of L&T Mutual Fund. According to AMFI data, L&T MF has average assets under management (AAUM) of Rs 717.03 billion and over 2.2millionn active folios as of September, 2022. According to HSBC MF, upon completion of the acquisition, the schemes of the mutual funds operated by L&T Mutual Fund will be transferred to HSBC Mutual Fund or will be merged/ consolidated with identified schemes of the mutual fund of HSBC or vice-versa. The sponsorship, trusteeship, management, and administration of the L&T Mutual Fund will be correspondingly changed.

NEW FUND OFFER

FUND HOUSE PERFORMANCE

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 20/10/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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