Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21-22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets continued their volatile trade as market participants looked ahead to key inflation data next week as well as the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement. Recently, US jobless claims jumped to the highest since October 2021, indicating a potentially softening labor market. The uptick also raised hopes that the Fed would pause its rate-hiking campaign at its meeting next week. On the flip side, the European Central Bank is expected to continue to tighten its monetary policy. Meanwhile, Japan's economy grew more than initially thought in January-March, revised data showed as a post-pandemic pickup in domestic spending and company restocking helped offset the hit to exports from slowing global demand. Chinese inflation came in flat again in May as the country's economy sputters owing to softening demand and falling exports, leading to calls for a rate cut and a bigger government stimulus.

On the domestic front, Indian markets moved higher helped by firm global trends and positive news flow on the domestic macro front. Auto stocks were in focus after reporting better-thanexpected sales numbers for May. The Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. While its commentary on growth remained upbeat, the central bank remained more cautious about the future trajectory of inflation and emphasized that it remains committed to anchoring inflation close to 4%. The most important factor determining the trajectory of inflation, going forward, will be the monsoon. If the monsoon is normal, food inflation will remain under control and this will give room to RBI to go for a rate cut. Therefore, the progress of the monsoon should be keenly watched. Rural and agri-related stocks are likely to be in focus with the arrival of monsoon in India. With major domestic events behind, markets will take cues from global events. Going forward, it is expected that market will continue to move higher supported by lower volatility, healthy macros, and consistent FII buying. Besides, both global and domestic factors will continue to give direction to the markets.

On the commodity market front, a pause in fall was seen in commodities and it bounced from the lower levels; CRB closed near 290 levels. In the bullion counter, gold saw marginal fall whereas silver witnessed some buying; overall gold and silver ratio improved a little. In the energy counter, natural gas prices revived but crude oil prices witnessed fall. In the base metals, only aluminium witnessed fall, rest of them recovered. China's exports shrank much faster than expected in May and imports fell, albeit at a slower pace, as manufacturers struggled to find demand abroad and domestic consumption remained sluggish. Hopes for more stimulus in the property sector, once the pillar of the country's economic growth, propelled demand outlook as construction is a main consumer for most industrial metals. Investors also bet China to further cut banks' reserve ratio and interest rates in the second half of this year to support the economy, following a report by state-owned media. However, some investors were sceptical about China after optimism earlier in the year led to disappointment when demand failed to rebound strongly.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • The Reserve Bank of India decided to leave its benchmark interest rates unchanged for the second straight meeting as inflation moderated further and previous rate hikes are set to keep inflationary pressures contained over months ahead. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, unanimously voted to hold the repo rate at 6.50 percent, as widely expected.
Power
  • Torrent Power has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Government of Maharashtra for development of three Pumped Storage Hydro Projects of 5,700 MW capacity at an investment of about Rs 27,000 crore. The project would be completed in a period of 5 years.
  • NHPC has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Department of Energy, Government of Maharashtra for establishment of Energy Storage Systems (Pumped Storage Systems) along with Other Renewable Energy Source (like Solar/ Wind/ Hybrid etc.) with a total capacity of 7,350 MW.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Biocon's Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) manufacturing facility located in Bangalore has received a certificate of GMP compliance from the Competent Authority of Germany, following an EU GMP inspection that was conducted in February 2023.
  • Zydus Lifesciences has received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (US FDA) for Tadalafil Tablets USP, 20 mg. Tadalafil Tablets USP, 20 mg had annual sales of $61 million in the United States (April 2023).
  • Lupin has launched Darunavir tablets, in 600 mg and 800 mg strength, to market a generic equivalent of Prezista tablets of Janssen Products, LP, which reduces the amount of HIV in the blood. Darunavir tablets had estimated annual sales of $308 million in the US as per IQVIA MAT March 2023.
  • Zydus Lifesciences has received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for Esomeprazole Magnesium for Delayed- Release Oral Suspension, 20 mg and 40 mg (USRLD: Nexium Delayed-Release for Oral Suspension, 20 mg and 40 mg).
Information Technology
  • Tata Elxsi has partnered with the Indian Space Research Organization (Isro) to enable the upcoming Gaganyaan Mission. Through the association, Tata Elxsi has designed and developed Crew Module Recovery Models (CMRM) for recovery team training of the space Mission.
Hotel
  • Lemon Tree Hotels has signed a License Agreement for a 60-room property in Rajamundry, Andhra Pradesh. The hotel is expected to be operational by Q3FY25.
Real Estate
  • Godrej Properties has further increased its stake in Godrej Home Constructions from 74% earlier to 100%. With the said acquisition, Godrej Home Constructions has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the company with effect from June 2. The transaction cost for 26% stake is Rs 14.98 crore.
Automobile
  • Hero MotoCorp launched a new range of its 100cc motorcycle – the HF Deluxe. The HF-Deluxe is available at showrooms across the country at prices of Rs 60,760 for kick variant and Rs 66,408 for self-variant.
  • Aether Industries Limited has inked a license agreement with Saudi Aramco Technologies Company for the commercialisation of the sustainable Converge polyols technology.

PIVOT SHEET

MACRO ECONOMIC METER

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US wholesale inventories edged down by 0.1 percent in April after dipping by a revised 0.2 percent in March. Economists had expected wholesale inventories to slip by 0.2 percent compared to the unchanged reading originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims climbed to 261,000, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week's revised level of 233,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 235,000 from the 232,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US trade deficit increased to $74.6 billion in April from a revised $60.6 billion in March. Economists had expected the trade deficit to jump to $75.2 billion from the $64.2 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • US factory orders rose by 0.4 percent in April after climbing by a downwardly revised 0.6 percent in March. Economists had expected factory orders to climb by 0.5 percent compared to the 0.9 percent advance originally reported for the previous month.
  • Consumer prices in China were up 0.2 percent on year in May. That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent following the 0.1 percent increase in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.2 percent, missing expectations for a decline of 0.1 percent - which would have been unchanged from the April reading.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

OBEROI REALTY LIMITED
CMP: 969.50
Target Price: 1126
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1088.40/726.25
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 35251.24
  • EPS (Rs.) 51.65
  • P/E Ratio (times) 18.77
  • P/B Ratio (times) 2.89
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.41
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Oberoi Realty Ltd. is India’s leading real estate development company, headquartered in Mumbai. It is focused on premium developments in the residential, office space, retail, hospitality, and social infrastructure verticals. The mix of innovative design, planning initiatives and use of cutting-edge technologies has enabled the company to successfully deliver 42 completed projects across Mumbai, the financial capital of India.
  • According to the management, the retail segment is experiencing phenomenal footfalls and strong growth across consumption. It expects sustained interest in Grade-A offices as occupiers and employees focus on the quality of space that they occupy. In the coming year, it is look forward to the launch of new projects and entry into new markets.
  • The company is setting up its second mall in Mumbai at Borivali, a western suburb. According to the management, the company plans to launch 1.5 million sq ft mall in mid-2024.
  • On the development front, it has entered into an agreement with NRB Bearings to acquire the latter's around 6.4 acre land parcel in Thane's Pokhran Road 2 along with structures thereon. The said land parcel is contiguous to the existing 68 acres owned by the company.
  • The company is currently in discussions with global hospitality giants Marriott International and Grand Hyatt to manage and operate a luxurious five-star hotel property in Thane, Maharashtra. It plans to develop a 300-key hotel as part of a comprehensive integrated project spanning approximately 75 Acres. This will mark the first establishment of a five-star hotel in Thane, situated near Mumbai, the financial capital of the country.
  • During the quarter ended March 2023, area booked stood at 14,11,886 sq.ft with booking value at Rs. 6,023 crore as compared to 5,24,291sq.ft and Rs. 925 crore respectively in the corresponding year.
  • The Company has recorded Consolidated Revenue of Rs. 995.11 crore for Q4FY23 as against Rs. 842.94 crore for Q4FY22. EBITDA came in at Rs 402.38 crore for Q4FY23 as against Rs. 371.25 crore for Q4FY22. The Consolidated Profit After Tax for Q4FY23 is Rs. 480.16 crore as against Rs. 232.78 crore for Q4FY22.

Risk

  • Delay in new project launch
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

In FY2023, the company has achieved highest ever net profit and highest ever gross booking value. Despite global headwinds, the domestic tailwinds have given a huge boost to the residential sector. According to the management the demand for housing has continued to grow, driven by the aspiration of continued home ownership by end users. Industry consolidation has led to incremental market share gains for organised players. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1126 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BV of 3x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.375.46.

P/B Chart

CSB BANK LIMITED
CMP: 268.75
Target Price: 320
Upside: 19%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 297.20/178.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 4662.432
  • EPS (Rs.) 31.55
  • P/E Ratio (times) 8.52
  • P/B Ratio (times) 1.53
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • T he business of the bank has increased 25% YoY to Rs 45995 crore end March 2023, driven by 28% surge in advances to Rs 21489 crore. Deposits also moved up 21% to Rs 24506 crore at end March 2023.
  • The CASA deposits of the bank increased 16% YoY to Rs 7886 crore at end March 2023. The CASA ratio declined to 32.2% at end March 2023 compared to 33.7% at end March 2022, while improved on sequential basis from 31.4% a quarter ago. The bank is focused on building a strong liability franchise.
  • The asset quality of the bank has improved in Q4FY2023. Gross NPA (Non-Performing Assets) ratio of 1.26% (down by 55 bps YoY) and Net NPA ratio of 0.35% (down by 33 bps YoY). Provision coverage ratio (including technical write-offs) was 92.11%.
  • The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CRAR) of the Bank, computed as per Basel III guidelines, stood at 27.10% in Q4FY2023.
  • According to the management, gold loans will continue to be the "cash cow" for the bank which increased by 48 percent year on year (YoY). The bank has achieved a strong credit growth on the back of sweating the system for gold loan business and leveraging the existing infrastructure. Gold loans constitute around 47 percent of the banks’ loan book as of FY23 compared with 42 percent a year ago.
  • The growth was mainly on the back of increase in agriculture & microfinance industry loans, gold loans, corporate loans, two-wheeler loans, new MSME loans. However, retail loans, MSME general loans and assignment loans saw a decline.
  • According to the management, the bank is entirely focused on a strong loan growth and would be able to maintain strong liquidity, which may slightly impact the margins. However, the bank expects to maintain NIMs above 5% for some time. In Q4 FY 23, it has posted healthy 15% growth in net interest income (NII). Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank eased to 5.38% in Q4FY2023 compared to 5.42% in the corresponding quarter of previous year.

Risk

  • Asset Slippages.
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets

Valuation

The bank is able to grow faster than the average industry growth trends in both deposits and advances. Despite lower treasury and PSLC (Priority Sector Lending Certificates) income contributions, the operating profit recorded a growth of 15% supported by growth in NII and other income. Key indicators like NIM, CRAR, RoA, NPA ratios etc. continues to be strong. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.320 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 1 year’s average P/BV of 1.52x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.210.77.

P/BV Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

ASHOK LEYLAND LIMITED (ASHOKLEY)

The stock closed at Rs.152.35 on 09thJune, 2023. It made a 52- week low at Rs. 128.20 on 17th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.169.45 on 06th September, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.144.35.

From last five to six months, the stock has been consolidating in broader range of 135-155 as big wild swings kept the stock volatile over the period of months. At current juncture, the stock has formed inverted head and shoulder pattern on broader charts and is on verge of fresh breakout above the neckline of the pattern formation. Additionally, positive divergence on secondary oscillators on daily and weekly charts along with rise in average volumes, also points towards, next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock above 155 levels for the upside target of 173 levels with SL below 145 levels.

BHARAT FORGE LIMITED (BHARATFORG)

The stock closed at Rs.815.60 on 09thJune, 2023. It made a 52- week low of Rs.615 on 20th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.919.45 on 15th December, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.792.

The Stock can be seen trading under pressure since the beginning of 2023 as prices have witnessed a series of decline from 900 levels to 750 levels. On broader charts, the stock has formed a “Double Bottom” pattern around 750 levels and bounced sharply thereon to reclaim a fresh move above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily interval. At current juncture, the stock has given a fresh breakout above the neckline of the “W” pattern seen on daily chart interval. The breakout has been witnessed with marginally higher volumes, which suggest a long build up into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 810-815 levels for the upside target of 880-885 levels with SL below 770 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Once again Indian markets remained sideways in the week gone by as nifty and Bank nifty, both the indices traded in defined range to end the week near unchanged line. Profit booking from higher levels was observed in the later part of the week, as Nifty ended below 18600 mark while Banking index closed below 44000 mark on local bourses. From the derivative front, hefty call writing was observed at 18600 & 18700 strikes while put writers were seen adding marginal open interest in lower strikes. The implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 9.49%, while that for put options closed at 10.57%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 11.26%. The PCR OI for the week closed at 1.36. Technically, the rally seen in the previous weeks, in Indian markets, seems exhausted as of now, as we can expect further round of profit booking in upcoming sessions. However the bias still remains in favor of bulls and we suggest traders to use these dips to create fresh longs. We also expect that market may witness sector rotation in upcoming sessions, as stock specific action likely to remain on radar. On downside, Nifty may get support in zone of 18450-18400 levels, while any sharp upside is likely to cap in zone of 18650 to 18750 levels.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 08th June, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices are expected to trade higher due to reduced supply at physical market. Arrivals dropped at major trading centers as farmers are looking reluctant to release their crop in anticipation of further rise in prices. About 138.3 thousand tonnes of Turmeric has arrived across India so far in year 2023 since 1st Apr’23 as compared to 145.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. Moreover, growing worries over upcoming crop prospects in wake of delayed arrival of monsoon will also push up prices to move up. Firmness in turmeric is likely to remain intact due to lack of premium quality of produce in the market amid shrinking supplies. Turmeric Aug prices are likely to move up towards 8600 in near term with support of 7700.

Jeera NCDEX July futures are expected to remain higher due to improved buying in local market. Arrival pace is in line with last year but quality of the crop is questionable that pushed the prices of fair quality of jeera much higher. About 61.7 thousand tones has been arrived so far in year 2023 since 1st Apr as compared to 61.3 thousand tonnes of previous year. According to Gujarat government's third advance estimates released, jeera production is estimated to fall 9.3% on year to 200,780 tonnes. Gujarat is the second-largest producer of the commodity. Considering the improved buying in spot market, jeera July prices is likely to move up further towards 51000 with support of 46000.

Dhaniya NCDEX July prices are likely to trade on positive bias due to increased buying at prevailing levels. However, gains in dhaniya are looking limited due to huge supply at physical market. About 222 thousand tonnes of dhaniya has been arrived so far in year 2023 since 1st Apr’23 against the 90.75 thousand tonnes of prior year. Coriander production is seen to rise 81% on year to 376,090 tn in Gujarat, according to the state government's third advance estimates. India's export of spices during Apr-Jan declined 13% on year to 1.1 mln tonnes, according to data from the Spices Board India. Dhaniya NCDEX July futures are likely to trade in range of 5800-6250 levels.

BULLIONS

Bullion counter may trade with bullish bias as the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits surged last week, suggesting that the labour market was slowing amid mounting risks of a recession. This has increased the chances of the Federal Reserve pausing its interest rate hiking cycle, which can weigh on the dollar and boost gold prices. The dollar has been on a downward trend in recent weeks, which has made gold more attractive to investors. The International Monetary Fund on Thursday urged the U.S. Federal Reserve and other global central banks to “stay the course” on monetary policy and remain vigilant in combating inflation. Markets are pricing in a 71.3% chance of the Fed standing pat next week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Still, the odds of a interest rate hike in July are now 51%. The U.S. consumer inflation report for May, due on June 13 that could provide more clarity about the health of the world’s largest economy. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could prompt the Fed to continue raising interest rates, which could weigh on gold prices. The U.S. economy is strong amid robust consumer spending but some areas are slowing down, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said, adding that she expects continued progress in bringing inflation down over the next two years. Comex gold is encountering robust support around the $1930 mark, while facing resistance near the $2000 level. Similarly, silver is finding support around $23.50 and encountering resistance near $26.00. Ahead in the week Gold (Aug) may trade in the range of 59000-61000 whereas MCX Silver may trade in the range of 71000-77000.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices may continue to witness both side movements and trade in the wide range of 5600-6200 levels. Demand concerns outweighed the prospect of tighter supply after Saudi Arabia pledged at a weekend OPEC+ meeting to cut crude output by 1 million barrels per day in July. That unilateral cut was in addition to the group's broader deal to extend existing supply curbs into 2024. This move is seen as an attempt to support oil prices, which have been under pressure in recent months due to concerns about a global economic slowdown. The fears over tighter supply and higher demand as the United States enters driving season which could drive prices higher were being offset by worries over a slow pickup in China's fuel demand. Additionally, a larger than expected rise in U.S. gasoline inventories raised concern over demand, particularly as this increase in stocks occurred during the peak U.S. driving season. But oil prices could get a lift, if the U.S. Federal Reserve skips a rate hike at its next meeting on June 13-14. Additionally, there have been signs that demand is slowly picking up in Asia, with the latest data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell in India showing that petroleum products demand in the country increased 9% yearon- year in May 2023. Natural gas prices may trade in the range of 175-210 levels. The current demand for natural gas remains low, so it’s not surprising to see that stocks are building at a robust pace. But supply issues in Europe and hope of steady demand growth the US caused by hotter temperatures after June 15 may provide some support to natural gas prices.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in range with bullish bias as top metal consumer China rolled out measures to support its economy. The sentiment was boosted by China's financial boost and its decision to launch a nationwide campaign to promote automobile purchases and shore up demand in the world's largest auto market. Data released recently signalled better performance in the auto and new energy sectors, fuelling hopes of strong metals demand. Sales of passenger vehicle in China totalled 1.76 million vehicles in May, up 28.2% from a year ago, according to the China Passenger Car Association. However, concerns about central bank rate hikes and slowing global economic growth may weigh on the counter. Copper may trade in the range of 710-740. Strong cable and wire production last month following increased government investment in the power sector bolstered copper consumption, while the production of copper tube, rod and foil slowed. A conveyer belt at Chile's Escondida copper mine, the largest copper deposit in the world, will face a partial 100-hour pause due to a fire, an Escondida union source told Reuters. Zinc can trade in range of 208-225. Lead can move in the range of 177-186. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-212. China's solar-related output such as polysilicon and batteries surpassed an annual growth of 72%, data by Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed, boosting demand for aluminium. Steel long (June) is likely to trade in the range of 45500-48000 on NCDEX. The prices may come under pressure on back drop in export price, fear of rising imports and apprehension of an impact in domestic demand.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton prices traded down on reports of smooth sowing progress in Gujarat. Cotton sowing in Gujarat has started on positive note as about 60.9 thousand Ha was sown under cotton as on 5th June as compared to 42.5 thousand ha of the previous year. However, sowing activities is yet to pick up and delay in arrival of monsoon will impact the sowing progress. Acreages are already down in northern India and expected to fall in other states due to adverse weather condition. Hike in MSP will also impact the market sentiment up. Government increased the MSP of cotton from 6080 INR/quintal to 6620 INR/quintal for year 2023-24. Cotton prices are likely to trade in range of 58000-63000 levels. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1470-1560 levels.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX July futures are likely to trade down on demand concerns. However, losses are likely to be limited as bleak production of cotton and lower arrivals has affected the overall production of cotton seed oil cake adversely. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2350- 2750.

Guar seed July futures are likely to trade down due to subdued demand. Heavy stocks of guar seed and bleak demand prospects of gum in wake of weakness in crude oil prices is likely to put pressure on prices. However, delayed monsoon and possibilities of El Nino in year 2023 will cap the maximum losses. Guar seed prices will trade in range of 5200-5600/5800 in near term wherein Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 9500-11000 levels.

Mentha oil June contract is likely to trade sideways to higher with emerging buying in local market. Prices have dropped to multiyear low due to demand concersn. Tumbling export of menthol from India and increased uses of synthetic menthol has pulled the mentha oil prices down. India exported about 12.7 thousand tonnes of menthol during FY 2022-23 as compared to 19.7 thousand tonnes of previous year down by 36% Y-o-Y. However, buying activities have increased at recent fall in prices that will cap the losses. Mentha oil prices are likely to trade in range of 895.930.

Castor seed prices are likely to trade mixed to higher on increased buying against limited availability at major trading centers. However, gains will be limited due to higher production and limited export demand of castor oil. Overall Production is estimated at 18.82 lakh tonnes in year 2023 higher by 16% Yo- Y. Castor seed July prices are likely to trade in range of 5350-5900.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 6850.00
M*.Low: 5574.00

It closed at Rs. 5903 on 08th Jun 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 6162.26. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.801. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.6000 for a target of Rs. 5500 with the stop loss of 6200.

ZINC MCX
Contract: JUN
M*.High: 248.65
M*.Low: : 204.15

It closed at Rs. 215.70 on 08th Jun 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 234.51. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.012. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 213 for a target of Rs. 223 with the stop loss of 209.

GUARSEED NCDEX
Contract: JULY
M*.High: 5952.00
M*.Low: 5350.00

It closed at Rs. 5438.00 on 08th Jun 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5687.88 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 22.799. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 5450 for a target of Rs. 5050 with the stop loss of 5600.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The government has hiked minimum support prices (MSPs) for 14 kharif crops for marketing season 2023-24 by 5-10% to ensure remunerative prices to the growers.
  • The India Meteorological Department declared the monsoon onset over Kerala on June 8, a week later than it normally does.
  • The government has removed the procurement ceiling of 40% of total marketable surplus for tur, urad and masur under the Price Support Scheme.
  • The Reserve Bank of India marginally lowered its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent.
  • China's copper imports slid 4.6% in May from a year ago. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totalled 444,010 tonnes in May, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
  • The cotton crop in Punjab was sown on around 1.75 lakh hectares – marking only 58% of the target.
  • India has emerged as the 2nd Largest Producer of Crude Steel in the world: Union Minister of Steel & Civil Aviation Shri Jyotiraditya M. Scindia.
  • India’s import of cheap Russian oil scaled another record in May. India took 1.96 million barrels a day from Russia in May, 15 per cent more than the previous high in April, according to data from energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
  • Argentina's current soybean harvest is nearing completion with total production expected to reach just 21 million metric tons, a major grains exchange said

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

A pause was seen in the fall in commodities and they bounced from the lower levels; CRB closed near 290 levels. In the bullion counter, gold saw marginal fall whereas silver witnessed some buying; overall gold and silver ratio improved a little. Gold prices fell slightly amid uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady later this month. Regardless of its decision in June, the central bank is most likely to keep rates higher for longer - a scenario that bodes poorly for non-yielding assets such as gold. In the energy counter, natural gas prices revived but crude oil prices witnessed fall. Crude oil imports into China, the world's largest oil importer, rose to their third-highest monthly level in May as refiners built up inventories, however, market focused on overll negative data and crude oil prices closed in red territory. In base metals, only aluminium saw fall, rest of them recovered. China's exports shrank much faster than expected in May and imports fell, albeit at a slower pace, as manufacturers struggled to find demand abroad and domestic consumption remained sluggish. China's copper imports slid 4.6% in May from a year ago, customs data showed. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products totalled 444,010 tonnes in May, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. However, hopes for more stimuli in the property sector, once the pillar of the country's economic growth, may propel demand outlook as construction is a main consumer for most industrial metals.

Castor seed traded in green. Jeera prices augmented further. Arrival pace is in line with last year but quality of the crop is questionable that pushed the prices of fair quality of jeera much higher. Dhaniya breached the psychological levels of 6000 due to huge supply at physical market. About 217 thousand tonnes of dhaniya has been arrived so far in year 2023 since 1st Apr’23 against the 89.6 thousand tonnes of prior year. Turmeric prices jumped as arrivals dropped at major trading centers as farmers are looking reluctant to release their crops in anticipation of further rise in prices. Moreover, growing worries over upcoming crop prospects in wake of delayed arrival of monsoon also helped prices to move up. Cotton counter was weak on reports of smooth sowing progress in Gujarat. Cotton sowing in Gujarat has started on positive note as about 60.9 thousand Ha was sown under cotton as on 5th June as compared to 42.5 thousand ha of the previous year. Lacklustre trade witnessed in mentha on reports of increased acreages and sluggish export of menthol will weigh on prices.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

MSP FOR KHARIF CROPS 2023-24

Currently, the entire world is surprised with the growth story of Indian economy and undoubtedly agriculture is now taking the centre stage of India's growth engine. With record production continuously in the last 8 years, India has comfortable stocks of foodgrain that are not only providing confidence against the current global food crisis but the world is also looking towards India to fight the crisis.

The MSP serves as a crucial safety net for farmers in India, with the government guaranteeing a minimum price for their produce. It also helps ensure food security and stabilizes market prices of staples. The government also uses the MSP to encourage farmers to cultivate certain crops.

By considering the positive impact of increased MSP, the government has increased the MSP of Kharif crops again for marketing season 2023-24, to ensure remunerative prices to the growers for their produce and to encourage crop diversification

The increase in MSP for Kharif Crops for Marketing Season 2023-24 is in line with the Union Budget 2018-19 announcement of fixing the MSP at a level of at least 1.5 times of the All-India weighted average Cost of Production, aiming at reasonably fair remuneration for the farmers. The expected margin to farmers over their cost of production are estimated to be highest in case of bajra (82%) followed by tur (58%), soybean (52%) and urad (51%). For rest of the crops, margin to farmers over their cost of production is estimated to be at least 50%.

In the recent years, Government has been promoting the cultivation of crops, other than cereals such as pulses, oilseeds, and Nutri-cereals/ Shree Anna, by offering a higher MSP for these crops. Additionally, government has also launched various schemes and initiatives, such as the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana (RKVY), the National Food Security Mission (NFSM), to encourage farmers to diversify their crops.

The move is also meant to give a boost to the government's Atmanirbhar Bharat scheme by reducing dependency on imports and increasing selfsufficiency. Increasing the prices may also lead to greater investment and production as mentioned in the Cabinet decisions.

Now, comfortable stocks amid better export demand zoomed up the export figures and attracted huge revenue. Furthermore, agricultural exports from the country is supporting the rural economy as it largest source of livelihood in India. Dependence on imports has reduced. Farmers' income has increased.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

Dollar Index Declines on Weak Treasury Yields and Jobless Claims Surge; Market anticipates Fed Pause. Chinese Yuan Weakens, fueling speculation of Rate Cuts. USD/INR Pair consolidates, hovering near Resistance. Key Events Waited: U.S. Inflation Data, Fed Decision, ECB Rate Announcement to name a few. In the past week, the dollar index experienced a decline for the second consecutive time due to weakness in Treasury yields, driven by a surge in weekly jobless claims. This decline reflects market expectations of the Federal Reserve pausing its interest rate hikes. Despite higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, the market is currently consolidating as it awaits significant inflation data and the Fed's interest rate decision. Looking ahead, the market anticipates steady rates at the upcoming policy meeting, with a resumption of the tightening cycle in July. Meanwhile, the Chinese yuan slipped to its lowest levels in six months, influenced by weaker-than-expected Chinese inflation data and falling exports. This has led to speculation of potential rate cuts by the People's Bank of China to stimulate the economy. The USD/INR pair is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within a range of 82.35 to 82.90, with a recent encounter of resistance near 82.95. The overall market sentiment for the dollar-rupee pair remains mixed as investors await more clarity on inflation and monetary policy, closely monitoring upcoming events such as U.S. inflation data release, the Fed's interest rate decision and the ECB rate announcement.

USDINR (JUN)is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 82.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.90 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.54 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.40.

One can sell near 82.60 for the target of 82.00 with the stop loss of 83.00.

GBPINR (JUN)is trading above its major Exponential Moving Average indicating upwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 102.80 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 104.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 102.74. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.27.

One can buy near 103.20 for the target of 104.20 with the stop loss of 102.70.

EURINR (JUN) is trading between its major Exponential Moving Average indicating sideways trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 88.20 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 89.60 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 89.00. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.40.

One can buy near 88.50 for the target of 89.50 with the stop loss of 88.00.

JPYINR (JUN) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 58.60 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 60.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 59.82. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.84.

One can sell near 59.60 for the target of 58.60 with the stop loss of 60.10.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

IKIO Lighting IPO sees 66.3 times buying on final day; QIB portion booked 164 times

The maiden public issue of IKIO Lighting has received overwhelming response from all type of investors as they bought 66.3 times the offer size on the final day of bidding on June 8. High net-worth individuals, who will get 15 percent of the IPO pie, were in the forefront for providing healthy support to the offer, buying shares 63.35 times the allotted quota, while retail investors have bid for 13.86 times the reserved portion. Qualified institutional buyers, who have 50 percent reservation in the public issue, have bought 163.58 times the portion. The Noida-based LED lighting solutions provider plans to raise Rs 606.5 crore from the public issue at the upper price band of Rs 270-285, comprising a fresh issuance of shares worth Rs 350 crore, and an offer-for-sale of Rs 256.5 crore by promoters. From the fresh issue net proceeds, IKIO Lighting will utilise Rs 212 crore for setting-up a new facility at Noida and another Rs 50 crore for repaying debts.

HMA Agro sets Rs 480-crore IPO price band at Rs 555-585 a share

HMA Agro Industries Ltd has set the price band for its Rs 480-crore public issue at Rs 555-585 a share. The company had earlier said that its IPO will open on June 20 for subscription and close on June 23. The anchor bids will start on June 19. Initiation of refunds will be on June 30 and credit of equity shares to demat account of the allottees will be on July 3. The stock is scheduled to list on the exchanges on July 4. At the upper end of the price band, the company is valued at Rs 2780 crore. HMA Agro plans to raise Rs 150 crore through the fresh issue and Rs 330 crore from an offer-for-sale from its shareholders and promoters. The OFS comprises up to Rs 120 crore by Wajid Ahmed, up to Rs 49 crore each by Gulzar Ahmad, Mohammad Mchmood Qureshi, Mohammad Ashraf Qureshi and Zulfiqar Ahmad Qurashi. Parvez Alam will sell up to Rs 14 crore through OFS. The proceeds from the fresh issue of up to Rs 135 crore will be used on working capital requirements of the company. Aryaman Financial Services Ltd is the sole lead manager to the issue. The firm only deals in buffalo meat and allied products. Unlike beef or pork, buffalo meat is free from religious constraints and has the added advantage of low fat and cholesterol. The raw material procurement is done by the company and it is processed at various facilities, most of which are owned by its subsidiaries and some are run by third parties. These processing units work on a contractual basis against fixed charges, which are borne by the company. The firm exports to the UAE, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Jordan, Algeria, Egypt, Angola, Vietnam, Indonesia, Georgia, Malaysia, Cambodia and various Middle Eastern, CIS and African countries. Approximately 90 percent of its sales are in the form of exports.

Valiant Laboratories files IPO papers

Valiant Laboratories Ltd, the subsidiary of Valiant Organics said it has filed a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) for an initial public offering (IPO) with stock market regulator Sebi. The proposed IPO will consist of a fresh Issue of 11,556,000 equity shares of face value of Rs 10 each. Valiant intends to use the IPO proceeds for setting up manufacturing unit in Gujarat through its subsidiary to make speciality chemicals such as ketene and diketene derivative products, along with working capital requirements of the subsidiary. Ketene and diketene derivatives are used in pharmaceutical and agrochemical industries. Formed in 1980, Valiant Laboratories is into manufacturing of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) focused on paracetamol. The company is promoted by Dhanvallab Ventures LLP and Shantilal Vora. Unistone Capital is the sole book-running lead manager to the issue.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Samco Mutual Fund launches SAMCO Active Momentum Fund

SAMCO Asset Management Private Limited has announced the launch of India's first actively-managed momentum fund - SAMCO Active Momentum Fund. Leveraging the persistent and globally acclaimed momentum anomaly in finance, the fund aims to deliver exceptional risk-adjusted returns to investors, tapping into the immense potential of momentum investing in the Indian market. The Nifty 200 Momentum 30 index has achieved an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.79% over 18 years, outperforming the broader Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 indices. Similarly, the Nifty Midcap 150 Momentum 50 index has achieved an exceptional CAGR of 21.28% since its inception. Moreover, when compared to the MSCI World Index, which produced 10x returns, the MSCI World Momentum Index delivered a commendable 20x return. Based on this extensive market research and a proven track record, SAMCO MF launches India's 1st active momentum fund that utilizes these insights offering investors an opportunity to tap into the remarkable growth potential that market momentum can provide.

Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund launched

Bajaj Finserv announced the launch of its new mutual fund business under Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund. Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund will launch a comprehensive set of products across fixed income, hybrid and equity categories to meet the needs of diverse investor profiles ranging from retail and HNIs to institutions, said the press release. The company will launch a set of fixed income, liquid, overnight and money market products to cater to the institutional segment and company treasuries. Sanjiv Bajaj, Chairman & Managing Director, Bajaj Finserv, said, “We are committed to being a full-stack financial solutions provider to meet India’s growing needs and building deeper, long-term relationships with customers who are already invested in us. The launch of asset management helps diversify our retail franchise and leverage Bajaj Finserv companies’ combined strength in financial services across a much larger customer base.”

Edelweiss Mutual Fund launches Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund

Edelweiss Mutual Fund has launched Edelweiss Multi Asset Allocation Fund, an open-ended scheme investing in equity, debt, commodities, and in units of REITs & InvITs. The new fund offer of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on June 19. The performance of the scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 TRI (40%) + Nifty 5 year Benchmark G-Sec Index (50%) + Domestic Gold Prices (5%) + Domestic Silver Prices (5%). The scheme will be managed by Bhavesh Jain and Bharat Lahoti (Equity), Dhawal Dalal (Debt), Amit Vora (Overseas), and Ashish Sood (Commodities). The investment objective of the scheme is to provide the investors an opportunity to invest in an actively managed portfolio of multiple asset classes. The scheme will invest predominantly in fixed-income, equities, and gold & silver. It will aim to generate returns through arbitrage in equities and gold & silver and income generation from fixed-income instruments. The portfolio construction strategy of the scheme will be 45-55% in fixed income, 35-40% in equity arbitrage, and 10-15% in gold & silver arbitrage. The minimum subscription amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The scheme will offer a regular plan and direct plan – with growth and IDCW options.

ITI Mutual Fund launches ITI Focused Equity Fund

ITI Mutual Fund has announced the launch of ITI Focused Equity Fund. The New Fund Offer or NFO is currently open for subscription and it will close on 12 June. ITI Focused Equity Fund will invest in a highly concentrated portfolio of 30 companies across market capitalisations. The minimum application amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. The fund will be jointly managed by Dhimant Shah and Rohan Korde. ITI Focused Equity Fund will be benchmarked against Nifty 500 Total Return Index. The fund will invest predominantly in equity and equity-related securities of up to 30 companies across various market capitalisation. The NFO is suitable for those investors who are looking to invest with a long-term horizon.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY - LARGE CAP FUND

EQUITY - MID CAP FUND

EQUITY - SMALL CAP FUND

EQUITY - TAX SAVING FUND

BALANCED ADVANTAGE FUND

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 08/06/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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