Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21-22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the weak gone by, global stock market witnessed volatile movements as investors across I the global markets were concerned about the economic impact of soaring oil prices and about the central banks’ interest rate policy. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury hit a fresh 15-year high as data out showed a still-resilient labor market with jobless claims coming in lower than expected. The US consumer confidence dropped to a four-month low in September, weighed down by a deteriorating outlook for the economy and labor market amid worries about rising fears of a recession. The real gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States expanded at an annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) final estimate showed. Renewed worries over major central banks resorting to likely rate hikes to rein in inflation are making investors jittery about the sluggish demand and slowdown in growth going ahead. Core inflation in Japan's slowed in September for the third straight month mainly on falling fuel costs. Meanwhile, Japanese retail sales rose 7.0% in August from a year earlier, marking an 18th straight month of gains. Japan's jobless rate stayed flat at 2.7% in August from the previous month, data showed.

Back at home, domestic markets remained cautious as headwinds from the global market and continued selling by FIIs kept domestic investors under vigil. FII selling in the current month so far has precipitated the fall, with rising US dollar index & treasury yields coupled with higher crude oil prices further dampening the sentiment. India's current account deficit (CAD) widened to $9.2 billion in the first quarter of FY24, from $1.3 billion in the preceding quarter owing to a higher trade deficit, lower surplus in net services, and a drop in private transfer receipts. Meanwhile, the strength of the Indian economy, good corporate earnings trend and flows into the mutual funds, particularly SIPs, are supportive indicators. Going forward, market is expected to remain volatile expecting higher interest rates, posing a risk to the earnings growth trajectory.

On the commodity front, Commodities have gone through volatile moves on surge in dollar index and US treasury yield. U.S. Treasury yields, benchmarked to the U.S. 10-year note, shot to fresh 16-year highs on Thursday, on expectations over more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Gold prices have shed more than 3% so far this month and are on track for their worst monthly showing since February. Industrial metals have been experiencing a downturn due to the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's extended tight monetary policy and escalating riskaverse sentiment ahead of China's Golden Week. The upcoming holiday is projected to decelerate China's domestic consumer demand, which is likely to impact the metals market. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 56500-58500 and 68000-72000 respectively. Industrial metals have been experiencing a downturn due to the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's extended tight monetary policy and escalating risk-averse sentiment ahead of China's Golden Week. Copper prices declined as a firm dollar and rising inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses weighed on the market.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • According to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India’s external debt at end-June 2023 was placed at $629.1 billion, recording an increase of $4.7 billion over its level at end-March 2023. The external debt to GDP ratio declined to 18.6% at end-June 2023 from 18.8% at end-March 2023.
Infosys
  • Infosys announced a collaboration with Microsoft to jointly develop industryleading solutions. These solutions will leverage Infosys' Topaz and the American tech giant's Azure OpenAI Service and Azure Cognitive Services. Both organisations are bringing together their artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to enhance enterprise functions with AI-enabled solutions across multiple industries.
Construction
  • L&T construction has won a mega order from its prestigious client Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA), for the design and construction of an Underground Road tunnel Project between Orange gate, Eastern Free Way to Marine Drive Coastal Road at Mumbai. According to the company's project classification,the value ofthe orderis above Rs 7000 crore.
FMCG
  • Emami announced its foray into juice category with AloFrut through strategic investment in Axiom Ayurveda and its subsidiaries/associates by acquiring 26% equity stake for an undisclosed amount. Axiom markets beverage products under the brand AloFrut, a proprietary fusion of aloevera pulp with fruit blend.
Power
  • NLC India is setting up 3x800 MW coal based thermal power project at Jharsuguda and Sambalpur districts in Odisha. It has entered into a long term power purchase agreement (PPA) with GRIDCO for 400 MW. With this, the entire power of 2,400 MW has been tied up on long term basis with Tamilnadu- TANGEDCO (1,500 MW), Puducherry- PED (100 MW), KeralaKSEBL (400 MW) and Odisha- GRIDCO (400 MW).
  • SJVN has commenced the mechanical spinning of unit-I of 60 MW Naitwar Mori Hydro Electric Project (NMHEP) at Mori in Uttarakhand. The project will generate 265.5 million units of electricity annually. The company has set up 37 km 220 KV transmission line for evacuation of power from Naitwar Mori HEP from Bainol to Snail.
Infrastructure
  • Likhitha Infrastructure has received an order worth Rs 155.87 crore from Bharat Petroleum Corporation for pipeline laying and HDD Works for Krishnapatnam-Hyderabad Multi Product Pipeline (KHPL) for Part-A& Part-B.
Consumer Durables
  • Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd arm Padget Electronics inked an agreement with Xiaomi Technology India for manufacturing smartphones and other related electronic products. The phones will be manufactured in Padget's facility situated at Noida, Uttar Pradesh.
Real Estate
  • Oberoi Realty has entered into a Development Agreement for development and redevelopment of approximately 13,450 square meters of land at Tardeo in Mumbai City. The company expects to generate a free sale component of around 2.5 lakh square feet (on carpet area) from the said Land.
  • Deep Industries has received Letter of Award from Oil and Natural Gas Corporation for charter hiring of HP compressors at GCP Geleki, Assam for three years. The total estimated value of the said award is Rs 108 crore.
Food Processing
  • Godrej Agrovet has entered into a strategic partnership agreement with Sime Darby Plantation Berhad (SDP), the largest producer of Certified Sustainable Palm Oil (CSPO). SDP will supply high-quality oil palm seeds to Godrej Agrovet's oil palm business unit(s) and later set up a seed production unitin India.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • • US gross domestic product increased by 2.1 percent in the second quarter, unrevised from the estimate provided last month. The unrevised reading matched economist estimates. The unrevised GDP growth in the second quarter still reflects a slight slowdown compared to the 2.2 percent growth in the first quarter.
  • US pending home sales plunged by 7.1 percent to 71.8 in Aucgust after rising by 0.5 percent to a downwardly revised 77.3 in July. Economists had expected pending home sales to decrease by 0.8 percent compared to the 0.9 percent advance originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims crept up to 204,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 202,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 215,000 from the 201,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • The value ofretail sales in Japan jumped 7.0 percent on yearinAugust- coming in at 13.391 trillion yen. That exceeded expectations for a gain of 6.0 percent following the upwardly revised 7.0 percent gain in July (originally 6.8 percent).
  • China's industrial profits rebounded in August as support measures helped to lift demand. Industrial profits logged a double-digit growth of 17.2 percent in August, in contrast to the 6.7 percent decrease in July.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

TORRENT PHARMA LIMITED

CMP: 1928.35

Target Price: 2281

Upside: 18%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 05.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 2099.95/1446.15
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 65264.13
  • EPS (Rs.) 37.49
  • P/E Ratio (times) 51.44
  • P/B Ratio (times) 10.53
  • Dividend Yield (%) 1.21
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Torrent Pharma ranks 8th in the Indian Pharmaceuticals Market and is amongst the Top 5 in the therapeutics segments of Cardiovascular (CV), Gastro Intestinal (GI),Central Nervous System (CNS), and Vitamins Minerals Nutritionals (VMN). It has 8 manufacturing facilities, of which 5 are USFDA approved. With R&D as the backbone for its growth in domestic & overseas market, it has invested significantly in R&D capabilities with state-of-the-art R&D infrastructure employing approximately 750 + scientists.
  • It is a specialty-focused company with ~75% of its revenue in India from chronic & sub- chronic therapies. It has presence in 50+ countries and is ranked No. 1 amongst the Indian pharma Companies in Brazil, Germany and Philippines.
  • As on 30 June 2023, 45 ANDAs were pending approval with US FDA and 3 tentative approvals were received. During the quarter, 1 ANDAwas approved. Moreover, it has informed that it has commenced commercial operations of its new Oral Oncology facility at Bileshwarpura close to Indrad, Gujarat.
  • The company has got the clearance letter by USFDA for its Dahej, Gujarat and the inspection has now been successfully closed. The updated classification of site is VAI (voluntary action indicated) which indicates that Torrent will startto get approval offiledANDAs. This will further enhance the company's prospects and foster growth in the US market with its new product offerings. The Dahej facility manufactures APIs and formulations forTorrent Pharma's international markets.
  • The management of the company expects to deepen its presence in the branded generic market and continue launching new products and plans to launch 10 Onco assets overthe next 4 years. Moreover,it expects further margin improvementin the Curatio business and aims to reach near base business margins. On the domestic front,the company expects a higher growth rate forthe branded generic business in India, with a focus on expanding coverage inTier-2 to 6 cities.
  • During Q1FY24, performance was boosted by the acquisition of Curatio in India, while delay in shipments impacted the growth in Brazil. The company's India revenue grew by 14.5%YoY to Rs 1,426 crore inQ1 FY24. As per AIOCD secondary data, Torrent's growth for the quarterwas 9%as comparedwith Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM) growth of 4%. As per secondary data set, Torrent's growth is 15% versus BGx market growth of 11% for the quarter ended Jun'23. Growth was complemented by strong underlying market growth, newlaunchesandgrowthofgenericsegment

Risk

  • Regulatory issues
  • Pricing pressure

Valuation

The company has made key launches in the last few quarters and plans to make more launches in the second half. It is also expanding its filed forces in the key international markets like Brazil. The recent acquisition and alliances auger well for the company in strengthen its position. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.2281 in 8 to 10 months’time frame on 3 years average P/E of 46.63x and FY24 (E) EPS of Rs.48.92.

H.G. INFRA ENGINEERING LIMITED

CMP: 942.20

Target Price: 1138

Upside: 21%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1016.75/532.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 6140.42
  • EPS (Rs.) 67.84
  • P/E Ratio (times) 13.89
  • P/B Ratio (times) 3.45
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.13
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • H.G. Infra Engineering Limited (HGIEL) has a strong presence in Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Telangana, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The company is primarily involved in road construction activities and has emerged as a significant Engineering Procurement Construction (EPC) player. The company is increasingly focusing on Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) projects and serves a diverse clientele, including government and private sectors.
  • In quarter ended June 2023, its order book stood at Rs. 11,674 crores, the EPC segment comprising of 53% and HAM segment constitution the remaining 47%.
  • The company expects revenue growth of 20-25% in FY2024. It expects to bring momentum in the order inflow with the new project in the tune of Rs. 7,000 crores to Rs. 8,000 crores this year. It is working mainly on the operational efficiency and executional capabilities to improve EBITDA and PAT margin. Digital transformation remains its priority from automation in the plant and machinery, operations, and other vehicles, which would add a lot of value in the financial indicators.
  • On the projects development front, the management informed that the EPC projects, the Ganga Expressway project, has achieved approximately 23.5% completion. The project is running well in the time as per the contract timeline. In Delhi UER project, it has made significant progress of around 65.8% and is expected to be completed by December 2023. The Neelmangala-Tumkur project is progressing well and has reached an execution status of 10.6%. The progress of various HAM projects is also looking good and moving ahead as per the planned schedule.
  • It has successfully ventured into the railway and metro sector. It has completed 13% of DMRC's metro project. Execution of this project is going well on track and would be completed as perthe contracttimeline. The company informed thatthe railway project of RVNL at Bilaspur Himachal Pradesh is progressing well. At the Kanpur railway station project, the mobilization is going on a very fasttrack.

Risk

  • Economic Slowdown
  • Higher commodity prices

Valuation

The strong order book indicates steady business growth going forward. The government thrust on the infrastructure sector, with lion's share towards the road, highways and railway sector along with new initiatives being taken to support the project completion on time auger well for the company as it is focusing on digital transformation in its plant and machinery, operations to bring operational efficiency. Thus,itis expected thatthe stock will see a price target of Rs.1138 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a one year average P/BV of 3.13x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs. 363.67.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

GRANULES INDIA LIMITED (GRANULES)

The stock closed at Rs.354.75 on 29th September, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.267.75.on 29th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.381 on 04th November, 2022, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.307.

In a recent past, the stock took support at its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly interval and formed a Double Bottom pattern around 275 levels as steady recovery has been seen in prices thereafter. At current juncture, the stock has managed to give a fresh breakout above the Ascending triangle pattern visible on weekly charts. On daily charts as well the sock can be seen trading in a rising channel with a formation of higher bottom pattern. The rise in volumes along with price action suggests a long build up into the stock, which supports a next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 350-355 levels for the upside target of 410-415 levels with SL below315 levels.

STATE BANK OF INDIA (SBIN)

The stock closed at Rs.598.55 on 29th September, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.499.35 on 01st February, 2023 and a 52- week high of Rs.629.55 on 15th December, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.570.

On daily charts, the stock has formed a Triple bottom pattern around 555 levels and took support at its 200 days exponential moving average in a recent past. After a pattern formation, the stock has given a sharp recovery as prices been seen rising above its key resistance level of 580 after a consolidation phase. At current juncture once again a fresh breakout has been observed in a stock above the Symmetrical triangle pattern. The price momentum can be observed along with positive divergences on secondary oscillators, which suggests for next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 595-599 levels for the upside target of 635-640 levels with SL below 570 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

On the weekly chart, both Nifty and Bank Nifty indices ended with minimal change. Infrastructure stocks showed increased buying interest last week, followed by metal stocks. Conversely, there was a trend of profit-taking in IT and media stocks. Derivative data for Nifty showed that put writing was observed at the 19,600 and 19,500 strikes, with the highest put open interest recorded at the 19,600 strike. Conversely, call writers seemed active in Nifty, with the highest open interest at the 19,800 strike followed by the 19,700 strike. In Banknifty, the highest call open interest was seen at the 45,000 strike, while on the put side, it was noted at the 44,500 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for call options in Nifty settled at 11.85%, whereas put options concluded at 12.38%. The India VIX, an indicator of market volatility, ended the week at 12.82%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI), which stood at 1.46 for the week, suggested a greater inclination towards put writing over calls. Presently, the Nifty's rollover rate shows a marginal decrease as compared to the preceding month. In the prior month, the rollover rate stood at 78%, whereas in the current month, it has slightly dipped to 76%. On the flip side, Banknifty boasts a rollover rate of 85%, surpassing the average rollover rate of the last three months. The rollover rates suggest a similar momentum trend as the previous NIFTY expiration. Expect Banknifty to demonstrate outperformance as compared to Nifty in the October series. In the upcoming week, it is expected that Nifty's trading range will hover between 19,400 and 19,800 levels. Traders are advised to keep a vigilant eye on the India VIX, particularly if it begins to rebound from the support level. The strategy of "Sell on rise" is recommended as long as Nifty trades below the 19,800 mark.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Rollover

Bottom 10 Rollover

Note: All equity derivative data as on 28th September, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices are expected to trade down due to demand concerns. Demand has been subdued as most of the millers and stockists are running with adequate stocks. Supplies are expected to improve as farmers and stockists will release their stocks in fear of fall in prices before commencement of new crop season. Recent rainfall in Telangana and Maharashtra proved beneficial for crop health that boosted supply prospects of new crop. Export demand is expected to improve from Oct onwards that will cap the major downfall in prices. Demand of turmeric in both developed and developing countries has improved leading to an increase in export by 25%. Between January and August 2023, 1.17-lakh tonne turmeric was exported from the country, which was 1.11 lakh tonne during the corresponding period last year. Bangladesh, Morocco and China remained the largest buyer of Indian turmeric. Shrinking arrivals could be other reason which will restrict the downfall in prices. Total arrivals of turmeric were reported at 7050 tonnes in Sep’23 at major APMC mandies across India as compared to 12800 tonnes of previous year. Turmeric prices are expected to find support near 12300 whereas resistance is seen at 15500.

Jeera futures are likely to trade down due to muted demand at physical market. Moderate buying is being seen at major trading centers in wake of better crop prospects ahead. Sowing of new crop is expected to start from Oct onwards and weather condition is looking favorable for sowing. Adequate soil moisture and better return on jeera will lead to rise in area under jeera during upcoming crop season of year 2024. Arrivals have been reported significantly down so far compared to last year but expected to improve ahead as stockists may release their stocks in fear of further fall in prices. Exports of jeera remained down in Jul’23 as India exported about 7.1 thousand tonnes of jeera in July’23 as compared to 19.4 thousand tonnes of previous year. Indian jeera prices remained uncompetitive in global market that kept overseas demand subdued. Jeera Prices are likely to trade in range of 57000-62500.

Dhaniya NCDEX Oct prices are likely to trade sideways to down due to adequate supplies in the market. Arrivals have been higher as compared to last year due to larger crop size in year 2023. India produce about 10 lakh tonnes of dhaniya in year 2023-24 against the 8.5 lakh tonnes of previous year. About 14.9 thousand tonnes of dhaniya arrived during Sep’23 at major APMC mandies across India against the 14.3 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, downfall in prices will be limited in wake of robust export demand. India exported about 9.1 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in July’23 as compared to 2.6 thousand tonnes of previous year. China, Malaysia and UAE have been the major buyers of Indian coriander in year 2023. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6600-7200.

BULLIONS

Gold is experiencing its most significant monthly decline since February, as it hovers at levels not seen in over six months. This downturn is primarily attributed to the looming spectre of prolonged higher interest rates. Gold has witnessed a 4% drop this month, marking its second consecutive quarterly decline. Concurrently, both the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields are on track to achieve their strongest quarterly performances in four years. The gold market has been quick to assimilate the Federal Reserve's communications regarding an extended period of rate stability. Treasury yields have surged to a 16-year high, elevating the opportunity cost of holding onto zero-yield gold. The surge in interest rates intensifies the opportunity cost of holding bullion, a nonyielding asset denominated in dollars. Recent data underscores a resilient pace of growth in the U.S. economy during the second quarter. Republican U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy rejected a stopgap funding bill advancing in the Senate, bringing closer the fourth partial U.S. government shutdown in a decade with just four days to go. Looking at the technical, Comex Gold has breached and sustained below the psychologically significant level of $1880, now setting its sights on $1800. Major resistance for gold is concentrated around $1920. In the silver market, trading is oscillating within the range of $24.900 to $20.900, characterized by a bearish bias. Looking ahead to the week's prospects, gold prices on MCX are anticipated to fluctuate between 56900 and 58900, with a bias toward selling on rallies. Silver is poised for a bearish trajectory, with a possible trading range spanning from 68000 to 73800 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil had a strong week, with a 2% gain, buoyed by tight U.S. supply and expectations of robust fuel demand during China's Golden Week holiday. This surge followed a nearly 30% price jump in the quarter, hitting a one-year high. Analysts are closely monitoring Saudi Arabia, the top oil producer, for potential supply increases. There's anticipation, mixed with some nervousness, that OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia might ease production cuts earlier than planned if prices continue to climb. A crucial meeting of OPEC+ is scheduled for October 4, where this decision may be addressed. China, the world's largest oil importer, exhibited stable factory activity in September, coupled with strong fuel demand during the Golden Week holiday, lending support to oil prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy maintained solid growth in Q2, with signs of acceleration in the current quarter, potentially boosting fuel demand. Looking forward, crude prices may continue rising, though concerns of an overstretched rally persist, prompting expectations of profit-taking. The expected trading range in the near term could be between 7300 and 7900. In the natural gas market, prices gained due to anticipated colder weather, driving up heating demand. However, the rise was tempered by the Energy Information Administration's report of a 90 billion cubic feet increase in natural gas inventories, slightly exceeding expectations of 89 bcf. Investors are also being encouraged to buy the commodity due to another heat dome that's landed atop Texas, pushing daily highs in Dallas-Fort Worth into the mid-to-upper-90's through next Tuesday, according to The Weather Channel. Ahead in the week, prices may continue to trade higher and the possible trading range would be 233-258 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in the range with mixed bias as Mainland China's economic growth remains uneven and the U.S. dollar's strength continues to cap global demand for industrial metals while the base metal may take some support from bets that consumer spending and business activity will pick up in China through the week-long mid-Autumn holiday, which begins today. The China’s economy showed signs of a stronger recovery in September, according to a firm analysing the global economy using satellite data. Copper may trade in the range of 705-735 levels. Climbing copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses are a negative. At 167,850 tons, they are up more than 200% since the middle of July and the highest since May last year. Zinc can trade in range of 222-245 levels. The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 17,400 metric tons in July from 75,900 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed. Lead can move in the range of 184-192 levels. Battery metal lead has come under pressure from higher LME stocks, up more than 40% over the past couple of weeks. Aluminium can trade in the range of 200-215 levels. Japan's primary aluminium imports fell 16% from a year ago to 95,630 metric tons in August, bringing the drop so far this year to 30%, trade data released by the Ministry of Finance showed. Global production of primary aluminium hit an alltime high in August, with the world's smelters running at an annualised rate of 71.2 million metric tons. Steel long (Oct) is likely to trade in the range of 45500- 47500 and sell on rise should be strategy.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton prices are expected to trade on positive bias in fear of yield losses triggered with pink bollworm attack on cotton crop in northern part of India. With commencement of new crop season in Oct’23, arrivals will start to pick up but considering the weaker crop prospects arrivals are likely to be down compared to last year. Cotton Production is expected to down by 8%-10% as compared to last year due to fall in area under cotton in year 2023. CCI is likely to start their procurement operation in Oct that prompting farmers to hold their produce in hope to get better price realization from Cotton Corporation of India. The Centre has fixed cotton MSP at Rs 6,620 per quintal for medium staple variety and Rs 7,020 per quintal for long staple variety. Cotton MCX Nov prices are likely to trade in range of 59200-63000. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1560-1650.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Dec futures are likely to trade mixed to down on sluggish buying in domestic market. However, reports of fall in area under cotton will cap the losses. Cocud prices are likely to trade in range of 2440-2820.

Guar seed Oct futures are likely to remain under pressure on demand concerns. Sluggish export of guar gum and commencement of new crop season in Oct will keep prices under pressure. Stockists are also expected to offload their stocks before commencement of new crop that will keep supplies adequate. Prices are ruling under pressure due to reports of sluggish export as guar gum export dropped further in July reported at 15.24 thousand tonnes as compared to 20 thousand tonnes of last year. Guar seed prices are likely to slip towards support of 5400 whereas 6000 will be the resistance. Gum prices are likely to trade in range of 10500-12500 levels.

Mentha oil prices are expected to trade down due to sluggish export demand of menthol. India exported about 1.5 thousand tonnes of menthol is July’23 as compared to 1.9 thousand tonnes of previous year. Overall export of menthol was reported at 4.2 thousand tonnes during the period of Apr-Jul’23 against the 5.2 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, short covering is likely to be seen any time due to limited supplies in the market that will cap the major losses in mentha oil. Mentha oil Oct prices are likely to find support near 900 and resistance can be seen at 970.

Castor seed prices are likely to trade mixed to down on reports of rise in area under castor in Gujarat. . Reports of higher area under castor will keep prices under pressure as about 9.47 lakh Ha was sown under castor as on 22nd Sep across India Vs 9.23 lakh Ha of previous year. However, increased export of castor meal will cap the losses. India exported about 30.3 thousand tonnes of castor meal in Aug’23 as compared to 23.7 thousand tonnes of previous year. Castor seed Oct prices are likely to trade in range of 5900-6600.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

NATURAL GAS MCX
Contract: OCT
M*.High: : 288.20
M*.Low: 234.00

It closed at Rs. 244.70 on 28th Sep 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 221.67. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.580. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 235 for a target of Rs. 255 with the stop loss of 225.

ALUMINIUM MCX
Contract: OCT
M*.High: 210.75
M*.Low: : 199.40

It closed at Rs. 207.45 on 28th Sep 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 205.71. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 75.200. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 207 for a target of Rs. 215 with the stop loss of 203.

GUARGUM NCDEX
Contract: OCT
M*.High: 14016.00
M*.Low: 11220.00

It closed at Rs. 11410.00 on 28th Sep 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 11966.53 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 20.280. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 11600 for a target of Rs. 10800 with the stop loss of 12000.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • Japan's primary aluminium imports fell 16% from a year ago to 95,630 metric tons in August, bringing the drop so far this year to 30%, trade data released by the Ministry of Finance showed.
  • OPEC nations saw an increase in their market share in India, moving from roughly 46.5 per cent in July to about 52 per cent in August: Kpler and the London Stock Exchange Group.
  • India's finished steel imports from China touched a fiveyear high to 0.8 million metric tons in the first five months of the fiscal year that began in April, up 69% from a year earlier, according to provisional government data reviewed by Reuters.
  • Investor demand for sovereign gold bonds (SGBs) surged to a record 11.67 tonnes valued at ₹6,914 crore in the second tranche ofthe current fiscal year despite high gold prices
  • The global zinc market surplus narrowed to 17,400 metric tons in July from 75,900 tons a month earlier as per data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). During the first seven months of the year, the global surplus was 495,000 metric tons compared with a surplus of 199,000 tons in the same period last year.
  • India is expected to see production of 330 lakh to 340 lakh bales (each 170 kg) of cotton in 2023-2024 cotton season that begins onOctober as perIndian Cotton Federation.
  • The government has set marginally higher foodgrain production targets of 332 MT for the 2023-24 crop year (July-June), of which rabi season will contribute 161.2 MT.
  • The Government of India gave a green signal to the export of 75,000 tons of non-basmati white rice to the UAE. The export to UAE will be permitted through National Cooperatives Exports Limited (NCEL).The development comes as India banned the export of non-basmati white rice in orderto boost domestic supply amid sticky inflation and the expectation of an erratic monsoon.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Commodities have gone through volatile moves on surge in dollar index and US treasury yield. U.S. Treasury yields, benchmarked to the U.S. 10-year note, shot to fresh 16-year highs, on expectations over more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The bond market sell off continued even as the U.S. dollar retreated from November highs. In the energy counter, Crude oil traded in a range whereas natural gas futures gained marginally. Oil prices moved in range after falling sharply from 2023 highs on some profit taking, although the prospect of tighter supplies still put prices on course for their fourth straight month of gains. An on-going sell-off in the bond market, which is usually regarded as a precursor to a recession also kept sentiment largely frayed, spurring some investors to lock-in recent profits in oil markets. Gold hit 6-½ month lows as the $1,900-an-ounce support in place since early August crumbled amid a continued flow of investment money from the yellow metal towards the dollar and Treasury yields. On MCX, it breached key support of 57400. Silver closed near 70000 levels, fell in line with gold. Gold prices have shed more than 3% so far this month and are on track for their worst monthly showing since February. Industrial metals have been experiencing a downturn due to the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's extended tight monetary policy and escalating risk-averse sentiment ahead of China's Golden Week. Copper prices declined as a firm dollar and rising inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses weighed on the market. Copper stockpiles in LME-registered warehouses have nearly tripled since July to 167,850 tons, the highest since May 2022.China's imports of primary aluminium surged to a near two-year high of 153,000 metric tons in August, bringing the year-to-date count to 755,000 metric tons. Last year's equivalent tally was just 298,000 metric tonnes.

In Commodities, it was a bearish week for spices, most of them closed on bearish on weaker export demand amid higher prices. Guar counter surrendered its precious gain further on offloading of old stocks ahead of upcoming fresh arrivals. Prices are ruling under pressure due to reports of sluggish export as Guar gum export dropped further in July reported at 15.24 thousand tonnes as compared to 20 thousand tonnes of last year. Cotton prices traded on positive bias on improved demand prospects in wake of commencement of winter season ahead. Price seasonality of cotton shows, prices move up during Oct-Dec due to active seasonal demand during that period. Mentha prices were unable to breach the crucial resistance. Cotton oil seeds cake futures traded dull on mix triggers.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

16

COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

China’s gold premium

China is gold's No.1 consumer, mining, central-bank buying and importing nation. Gold in China is trading at a huge premium to international prices as a revival in demand outstrips the country's imports. Benchmark prices in Shanghai have climbed to a premium of more than $43 an ounce over their London equivalent, the highest since 2019, according to data from the World Gold Council. Physical gold prices in China were quoted between $20 and $60 an ounce over global prices in August before premiums surged to record highs of around $135 earlier this month.

Factors supporting the China’s gold premium

  • The improving gold demand and relatively tepid imports in recent months caused by the government’s import restrictions may have led to local demand and supply conditions tightening, pushing up the local gold price premium.
  • Strong physical buying also kept the premium high. The introduction of various economic stimuli with a focus on consumption may contribute to the growth of gold jewelry purchase. However, premiums in China pulled back from record highs last week after China eased bullion import restrictions.
  • China’s gold imports via Hong Kong rebounded in August from the previous month, data showed, with the issuance of fresh quotas to local banks likely to boost shipments into the world’s top gold consumer. The latest data show that China's gold imports from Hong Kong increased to 45.2 tonnes over August compared to around 30.2 tonnes in July as demand for precious metals remains strong in the domestic market. This import is lower than 71.855 tons in August 2022.
  • Concerns from onshore financial markets and the need to hedge against yuan depreciation could have supported demand for precious metals.
  • Gold prices quoted in USD and yuan headed in different directions in August. Major factors including rising US Treasury yields and a strong dollar weighed on the international gold price in USD. But the Chinese currency weakness, which depreciated by 2% against the dollar in the month, led to a mild increase in the yuan gold price.
  • The People’s Bank of China announced a 29t gold purchase in August, pushing total gold reserves to 2,165t and extending the buying streak to 10 months. Currently, gold accounts for 4.03% of China’s total foreign exchange reserves in USD terms, the highest on record. So far in 2023, China has reported a 155t addition to its gold reserves.
  • Investment demand in gold bars and coins segment have also grown in the second half in China, driven by investors' inclination towards safe-haven assets
  • China’s economic recovery faces continued challenges. In August, nonmanufacturing and service Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) slipped further amid poor demand and extreme weather conditions, reminding the market that cloud over the recovery remain.
  • However, there are also signs that conditions are improving. The official manufacturing PMI rose for the fourth month straight and exceeded expectations. Also, credit growth in total social financing and new yuan loans surprised to the upside. Meanwhile, policy makers rolled out various stimuli to support the property market including lowering the down payment and mortgage rates for home buyers.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic Gauge for the Next Week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

Indian Rupee lost roughly less than half-a-percent to close below 83.00 to a dollar, which was the lowest level in more than a month. Rupee slipped towards its lifetime low of 83.29 made in October 2022 after oil prices surged rapidly including Brent gained $26 a barrel since June to almost $97 barrel weighed emerging currencies including rupee as well. Currency of nations relying on energy imports including Japanese Yen, Indian Rupee and others are near to record lows. The eventual impact seen in India's currency account deficit ( CAD ) which widened to $9.2 billion or 1.1% of GDP in Q1FY24 from $1.3 billion or 0.2% of GDP in the Jan-March broadly attributed to widening trade deficit. On top of that Rupee gave up its JP Morgan index inclusion of Indian Government Bonds gains led by oil importers dollar demand reverse the course of positive move in the rupee. We cast doubt over any potential upside in the rupee as concerns over rising energy prices and Fed's narrative over higher-for-long interest rates in the U.S. will keep rupee in a weekly range between 82.75 to 83.35 as well. On the global front, the dollar index marked its 10-straight weekly gains just shy away from its 12-weekly gains recorded in late 2014. Monetary policy divergence between US Federal Reserve and other G7 central bankers likely to support dollar against a basket of currencies including euro and pound as well. Key to watch next week US jobs data to assess the strength in the dollar index as we move to the last quarter of this calendar year.

USDINR (OCT)pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.1. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.42 levels.

One can sell near 83.35 for the target of 82.5 with the stop loss of 83.65.

GBPINR (OCT)pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 102.9. However, the pair is in oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 101 levels, while resistance is expected near 103 levels.

One can buy near 101.5 for the target of 102.5 with the stop loss of 101.

EURINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 88.9. However, the pair is in Oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 34 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 87.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 89 levels.

One can buy near 88 for the target of 89 with the stop loss of 88.5.

JPYINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 56.5. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 37.55 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55.25 levels, while resistance is expected near 57 levels.

One can sell near 56.3 for the target of 55.3 with the stop loss of 56.8.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

Number of IPOs hits multi-year high on good valuations, pricing

Astrong stock market, that is offering good valuation and pricing, is prompting promoters and private equity players to take companies public, with the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) reaching a multi-year high. And, the bullish trend in the primary market is likely to continue for at least a few more months, merchant bankers said. Consider this: So far in the current fiscal, 166 companies have gone public through IPOs, compared to 164 in the previous full year. In the last 10 years, the highest such new public offerings were in 2017-18 when 188 companies had gone public, data showed. These numbers include large companies, which list on the main board of the bourses, and SMEs. In terms of money raised, however, the Rs 30,090 crore raised is about a quarter of Rs 1.1 lakh crore raised in 2021-22 when large offers, such as, from PayTM, Zomato, Star Health and Nykaa had hit the market.

Exicom Tele-Systems files draft papers with Sebi to garner funds via IPO

Power management solutions provider Exicom Tele-Systems Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The maiden public issue comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale component of up to 74 lakh equity shares by promoter NextWave Communications, according to the draft red herring prospectus (DRHP). At present, NextWave Communications owns a 71.45 per cent stake in the company. Also, the company plans to raise Rs 80 crore through a pre-IPO placement round. If such placement is undertaken, the fresh issue size will be reduced. Proceeds of the fresh issue will be used towards setting up production lines at the manufacturing facility in Telangana, investment in research & development as well as product development, and payment of debt, to support working capital requirements and general corporate purposes. Exicom Tele-Systems develops industry-leading EV charging solutions for homes, workplaces, and public spaces.

Fincare Small Finance Bank gets Sebi nod for IPO

Fincare Small Finance Bank has received market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India's approval for its proposed initial public offer. The bank plans to raise up to Rs 625 crore by issue of equity shares of face value Rs 10. Fincare SFB applied for the IPO afresh in May. It initially filed draft papers last year but needed to refile the proposal with a fresh set of numbers as Sebi sought more information. The IPO also includes offer for sale (OFS) by promoters and other investors. The OFS aggregating up to 1.7 crore equity shares by the promoter and shareholders such as True North Fund V LLP, Indium IV (Mauritius) Holdings, Omega TC Holdings PTE, Leapfrog Rural Inclusion (India), Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance, Life Insurance Company and Edelweiss Tokio Life Insurance Company. Fincare has an extensive network of 1,231 banking outlets and 144 ATMs across 19 states and three union territories as of March 2023. The bank earned a net profit of Rs 103 crore in FY23 on a total income of Rs 1,971 crore. Book running lead managers to the IPO are ICICI Securities, Axis Capital, IIFL Securities, SBI Capital Markets and Ambit Private Ltd.

Govt-owned WAPCOS scraps IPO plans

New Delhi, Public sector firm WAPCOS Ltd has decided to shelve its plan for an Initial Public Offering (IPO), through which the government was looking to divest shares. The maiden public issue was slated to be a complete Offer For Sale (OFS) of up to 32,500,000 equity shares by the promoter, Government of India. The company had filed its preliminary papers for the proposed IPO on September 26, 2022 with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). However, the issue was withdrawn on September 21, 2023, an update with the markets regulator showed on Tuesday. The reasons for the withdrawal were not disclosed. WAPCOS provides consultancy, and engineering, procurement and construction services in the field of water, power and infrastructure sectors. It comes under the Ministry of Jal Shakti. Also, the company provides its services abroad, particularly in South Asia and across Africa in the fields of dam and reservoir engineering, irrigation and flood control. The company's revenue from operations increased 11.35 per cent to Rs 2,798 crore in FY22 while profit after tax rose 14.47 per cent to Rs 69.16 crore during the same period.

Fincare SFB, Western Carriers get Sebi approval to launch IPOs

Fincare Small Finance Bank and logistics company Western Carriers have received market regulator nod to launch respective IPOs. Both the companies have obtained observation letters, which in Sebi's parlance is equivalent to an approval. Western Carriers had filed its draft red herring prospectus with Sebi in June. According to the draft prospectus, the IPO of the Kolkata-based company comprises a fresh equity issue of Rs 500 crore and an offer for sale of 93.29 lakh shares by the promoter Rajendra Sethia. The company proposes to utilise the net proceeds towards repayment of debt, funding capital expenditure requirements for purchase of commercial vehicles, 40 feet specialised containers and 20-feet normal shipping containers and reach stackers and the balance for other general corporate purposes. Western Carriers is the largest private, multimodal, rail focused, asset-light logistics company in India in terms of container volumes in FY22. It had a customer base of over 1,100 across varied sectors such as metals and mining, FMCG, Pharma among others. Some of its key clients are companies like Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, BALCO, JSW, HUL, Coca Cola India and others. JM Financial and Kotak Mahindra Capital Company are the book running lead managers to the issue. The equity shares are proposed to be listed on the BSE and the NSE.

Rockingdeals Circular Economy files IPO papers

B2B re-commerce player Rockingdeals Circular Economy Ltd (RDCEL) on Monday said it has filed draft papers to raise funds through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The shares of the company will be listed on the NSE Emerge, the company said in a statement. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares of up to 15 lakh equity shares with a face value Rs 10 each through the book-building process. Proceeds from the issue will be utilised towards working capital requirement, brand positioning, marketing, advertising, and general corporate purpose, the company said. The company recently concluded its pre-IPO round comprising a preferential issue of 4,80,130 shares at an issue price of Rs 100 apiece, it said. "We are delighted to reach yet another milestone and get closer to our mission of becoming a publicly listed company," RDCEL Promoter and Managing Director Aman Preet said. Corporate Capital Ventures Pvt Ltd is the book-running lead manager of the IPO.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

EQUITY - LARGE CAP FUND

EQUITY - MID CAP FUND

EQUITY - SMALL CAP FUND

EQUITY - TAX SAVING FUND

BALANCED ADVANTAGE FUND

Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 21/09/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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