Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock markets looked cautious as the latest inflation indicators in the United States and Europe, is suggesting the possibility of a prolonged high-interest rate regime. European markets also looked nervous after data showed an increase in German, France and Spain’s inflation in February. To note a German flash estimate put the inflation rate harmonized with the rest of the EU at 9.3% in February, which is an increase from 9.2% in January. Meanwhile, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported its official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012. Japan's services sector activity grew at the fastest pace in eight months in February. The final au Jibun Bank Japan Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose in February to a seasonally adjusted 54.0 from January's 52.3. The final figure was higher than the flash reading of 53.6 and well above the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction for a sixth straight month. Going forward, domestic economy-facing sectors such as banks, capital goods, cement, select autos and FMCG will continue to do well.

At home, domestic markets too looked cautious even though Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes sometime this summer. Actually, market is seeing money outflow from homeland. Activity in India's dominant services sector expanded at the fastest pace in 12 years in February on strong demand as price pressures eased further amid mild job rises & capacity pressures in the country, a survey showed. Strong growth in services activity boosted the composite index to 59.0 in February from January's 57.5, despite manufacturing growth slowing to a four-month low. The gross goods and service tax (GST) revenue collection in the month of February 2023 stood at Rs 1,49,577 crore, up around 12% on an annual basis. With this, the monthly GST revenues remained over Rs 1.4 lakh crore for 12 straight months in a row.

On the commodity market front, CRB closed marginally up after two week fall 296 as dollar index took a pause in the rally after a four week rise. After a sharp fall of three week, gold took support near $1805. Silver took support after a six week fall, took support near$21. Gold and silver can trade in a range of 54500-56000 and 62000-65500 respectively. Natural gas can continue its upward journey upto 250-275. Base metals will be in a range. RBA Interest Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Non Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate of US, GDP Growth Rate of Euro Area, Balance of Trade and BoC Interest Rate Decision, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of Canada, GDP Growth Annualized Final of Japan, Inflation rate of China, Germany and Mexico, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, New Yuan Loans of China, etc are loads of economic data and events scheduled this week which will impact the commodities prices.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • India’s Gross domestic product grew 4.4 percent year-on-year following a 6.3 percent growth in the three months to September. Economists had forecast growth of 4.6 percent.
  • According to the purchasing managers' survey from S&P Global, India's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, dropped slightly to 55.3 in February from 55.4 in January. However, a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals (Alembic) announced that it has received final approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) Docetaxel Injection USP, 20 mg/2 mL (10 mg/mL) SingleDose Vial, and 80 mg/8 mL (10 mg/mL) and 160 mg/16 mL (10 mg/mL) Multiple-Dose Vials.
  • Lupin announced the launch of its new Regional Reference Laboratory in Hyderabad, Telangana. This expansion of Lupin Diagnostics' network is part of the company's strategy to build and strengthen its presence in South India. This regional reference laboratory adds to Lupin Diagnostics' existing network of 380+ LupiMitra collection centers and 23 laboratories across India.
Casting
  • Ramkrishna Forgings announced a significant step towards fulfilling its commitment of achieving carbon neutrality through an investment in renewable energy. The company plans to install a 7.82 MW capacity roof-top solar project at its existing forging plants in Seraikela and Dugni at Jamshedpur.
Construction
  • G R Infraprojects has received Letter of Award from National Highways Logistics Management for the Rs 758.10 crore project entailing development, operation and maintenance of multi modal logistics park (MMLP) Indore near Pithampur, in Dhar District in the State of Madhya Pradesh through public private partnership on design, build, finance, operate and transfer basis.
Power
  • Kalpataru Power Transmission has been selected with Acciona Construction Australia and Genus Plus Group, as the Preferred Proponent to deliver Transgrid􀀀fs HumeLink (East) transmission line project in Australia. The value of the project will be determined post conclusion of Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) Stage 2 process.
  • Power Grid Corporation of India has been declared as the successful bidder under Tariff Based Competitive Bidding to establish Inter-State Transmission System for “Establishment of Khavda Pooling Station-3 (KPS3) in Khavda RE Park” on build, own operate and transfer (BOOT) basis.
Defence
  • The Union Cabinet has approved procurement of 70 HTT-40 Basic Trainer Aircraft from Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) for the Indian Air Force at a cost of Rs 6,828.36 crore. The aircraft will be supplied over a period of six years.
  • Bharat Electronics (BEL) signed a Frame Supply Agreement with Thales Reliance Defence Systems (TRDS), Nagpur, for the manufacture and supply of TR Modules, Radar LRUs (Line Replaceable Units) and Micro Modules.
Chemical
  • Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals has expanded the Caustic Soda Lye Plant from 785 MTPD to 1310 MTPD of its Dahej Complex. As a part of the Caustic Soda expansion, a new 700 MTPD Caustic Evaporation Unit (CEU) was also commissioned to cater to the requirement of Caustic Soda Lye production (48% wlw).

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

CORPORATE ACTIONS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims edged down to 190,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 192,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 195,000.
  • US construction spending slipped by 0.1 percent to an annual rate of $1.826 trillion in January after falling by 0.7 percent to a revised rate of $1.828 trillion in December.
  • US manufacturing PMI inched up to 47.7 in February from 47.4 in January, although a reading below 50 still indicates a contraction. Economists had expected the index to edge up to 48.0.
  • US pending home sales index soared by 8.1 percent to 82.5 in January after jumping by 1.1 percent to a downwardly revised 76.3 in December. Economists had expected pending home sales to advance by 1.0 percent compared to the 2.5 percent surge originally reported for the previous month.
  • Eurozone consumer prices rose 8.5 percent year-on-year in February, which was the slowest since May 2022. However, the rate was only marginally below January's 8.6 percent and also above economists' forecast of 8.2 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED
CMP: 764.60
Target Price: 890
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 5.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 877.10/629.05
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 426158.52
  • EPS (Rs.) 12.84
  • P/E Ratio (times) 59.55
  • P/B Ratio (times) 5.81
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.40
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Consolidated mobile data traffic was at 13,625 PBs in the quarter with a YoY growth of 23.7%. India revenues for Q3 FY23 at Rs 24,962 crore, increased by 19.4% YoY. Mobile revenues grew by 20.8% YoY on account of improved realization as well as strong 4G customer additions during the year.
  • The company strengthened its leadership position in postpaid segment with a customer base of 32.5 million (including IoT). It added 21.2 million 4G data customers to its network over last year, an increase of 10.8% YoY. Average data usages per data customer were at 20.3GBs/month.
  • It has crossed the 1 million unique 5G user mark on its network in Mumbai. Airtel was the first to roll-out 5G in the country and Mumbai was one amongst the first 8 cities to get ultrafast Airtel 5G Plus. Airtel’s 5G services are available in over 140 cities across the length and breadth of the country. The company has recently surpassed the 10 million unique customer mark on its 5G network nationally. According to the management of the company, the company is well poised to cover every town and key rural areas with Airtel 5G services by end of March 2024.
  • ARPU (average revenue per user) for the quarter stood at Rs 193 compared with Rs 163 in Q3 FY22 on the back of continued focus on quality customers and premiumization. The management of the company has always maintained the mobile Average Revenue per Unit (ARPU) and expects short term ARPU target Rs 200, and medium to long term ARPU target is Rs 300, planned through price hikes for sustainable operations.
  • The net debt-EBITDA ratio (annualized) and including the impact of leases as on 31 December 2022 is at 2.82 times.
  • During the quarter, on a consolidated basis, Revenue up 19.88% YoY to Rs 35804.4, profit before tax jumped 67.6% year-on-year to Rs 4,359 crore in Q3 December 2022. EBITDA jumped 24.8% YoY to Rs 18,601 crore in Q3 FY23. EBITDA margin stood at 52% in Q3 FY23, up 205 bps as against 49.9% in Q3 FY22 and PAT up 91.44 % to Rs 1588.2 cr.

Risk

  • Regulatory risk
  • Technological changes risk

Valuation

The balance sheet continues to be robust with healthy and improving cash flows. The Company’s leverage ratio is under 3 and remains committed to being financially prudent and yet growth focused. Its performance for the recent quarter has been strong because of the resilience and depth of portfolio. Bharti’s mobile tariff hike is expected to improve its net debt-to-Ebitda metric. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.890 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 3 yrs average P/BV of 5.32x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.167.36.

P/B Chart

CANARA BANK LIMITED
CMP: 305.25
Target Price: 365
Upside: 20%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 341.60/171.70
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 55376.33
  • EPS (Rs.) 50.14
  • P/E Ratio (times) 6.09
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.86
  • Dividend Yield (%) 2.13
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The business of the bank has increased 14% YoY to Rs 2014443 crore end December 2022, driven by 17% surge in advances to Rs 850973 crore. Deposits increased 12% to Rs 1163470 crore at end December 2022.
  • The bank has posted healthy 24% growth in net interest income (NII), while the core fee income of the bank also improved 13% in Q3FY2023. The Net Interest Margin (NIM) of the bank improved to 2.93% in Q3FY2023 as compared to 2.79% in the corresponding quarter of previous year. The bank expects to maintain the margins around 3%.
  • The bank has posted strong 13% growth in core fee income to Rs 1606 crore, while the treasury income increased 21% to Rs 386 crore.
  • The housing loan, retail growth and all continuing their steady growth. Retail growth has continued at 11.30% and housing loan is growing at 15.81%. Gold loan is continuing the growth in the industry at 34.21% and portfolio stood at 115286 crores.
  • Gross NPA (Non-performing Assets) has declined 191 bps to 5.89% and Net NPA reduced 90 bps to 1.96%. Provision coverage ratio was steady at 86.32% at end December 2022 compared to 85.36% a quarter ago and 83.26% a year ago. The capital adequacy ratio of the bank stood at 16.7% with Tier I ratio at 13.7% at end December 2022.
  • The cost to income is well below 45%. The corporate credit growth has accelerated to 21% driven by lending of rupees 15000 crore to Oil Companies in Q3FY2023. The bank expects credit growth at 14-15% for FY2023.
  • The CASA deposits of the bank rose 3% YoY to Rs 351490 crore at end December 2022. The CASA ratio declined to 30.2% at end December 2022 compared to 32.8% at end December 2021, while eased from 31.7% a quarter ago.

Risk

  • Asset Slippages.
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets

Valuation

The bank has been consistently delivering on improving asset quality, cost efficiency, other income and productivity in the past few quarters. The Management is confident of improvement in incremental disbursement with better credit monitoring. According to the management, Loan mix would be 55% corporate & 45% retail going forward, looking at 14-15% loan growth for next year. The bank is lending to an Indian corporate for its foreign operations. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.365 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current P/BV of 0.86x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.424.64.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

NTPC LIMITED (NTPC)

The stock closed at Rs 172.60 on 03rd March, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 126.90 on 07th March, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 181.85 on 03rd November, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 161.50.

From last more than three months, the stock can be seen consolidating in a broader range of 162 to 176 as prices are holding well above its 200 days exponential moving average on daily and weekly interval. Last week, the stock has given fresh breakout above symmetrical triangle pattern on short term charts along with rising volumes. On broader charts as well the stock is on verge of fresh breakout after a prolong consolidation phase. The positive divergences on secondary oscillators suggest for next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy stock on dips in the range of 170-173 levels for the upside target of 182-185 levels with SL below 163 levels.

POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED (PFC)

The stock closed at Rs 155.15 on 03rd March, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 97.10 on 20th June, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.161.80 on 09th Jan, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 130.00.

The Stock can be seen trading in a rising channel with formation of higher bottom pattern on broader charts. Last week, the stock has given fresh breakout above the symmetrical triangle pattern, visible on daily charts. The rising volumes with rise in prices suggest a long build up into the stock, which points towards more positive moves in upcoming sessions. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 153-155 levels for the upside target of 173-175 levels with SL below 140 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Nifty and Bank Nifty, both the indices ended the week in a green zone after witnessing a volatile sessions during the week. In Friday’s session, a round of short covering was witnessed in Banking, Metal, FMCG and Financial stocks, which supported the bullish sentiments. From the derivative front, Nifty’s highest call open interest concentration was seen at 18000 strike, followed by 17900 and 17600 strike while on put side, highest concentration in open interest held at 17500 and 17400 strike respectively. The Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.39% while that for put options closed at 12.03%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.97%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.22 lower from previous week. Technically nifty has tested its, fresh swing low and once again bounced back above its 200 days exponential moving average on the daily charts. For upcoming week, we expect Indian markets to remain on volatile path, with bias likely to remain in favour of bulls. On downside, 17300-17200 zone is likely to provide support, while on higher side, 17800-17900 zone would act as a strong resistance for upcoming week. Traders are advised to remain focus on stocks and sectors specific moves.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Bottom 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 02nd March, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric NCDEX Apr is expected to trade sideways to down in upcoming week mainly due to improved supply outlook in major producing region. Arrivals has started improving in Nizamabad market in Telangana as about 20000-25000 bags turmeric is being arrived on daily basis. Similarly, supply in Sangli has also increased wherein bulk buyers are staying away from heavy buying in anticipation of further drop in prices. Going forward major focus will be on the export enquires as export demand is surging with fall in prices. Turmeric Apr contract is expected to slip towards the support of 6600 and will honor the resistance of 7300 in near term.

Jeera NCDEX Mar futures is expected to trade sideways to higher due to weaker production outlook for upcoming season. Stocks are tighter with millers as well with stockists that is forcing them to buy at every dip in the prices. Prices are holding strong support near 29000 and buying is visible when prices come near to this level. Jeera production is expected to be down by 5- 8% in year 2023 due to fall in area in Gujarat. Improved festive demand and export enquires will keep the market sentiments up. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 29000-34000.

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr prices are likely to remain under pressure due to improved supply prospects for upcoming season. About 2-2.25 lakh bags of arrivals has been coming on daily basis in Gujarat and expected to increase further. Demand has been subdued as major buyers and spices millers are avoiding bulk buying with rising supplies of new arrivals in major mandies. Total production of dhnaiya was estimated to increase up to 9.5 lakh tonnes as compared to 8 lakh tonnes in year 2022-23. Dhaniya NCDEX Apr Prices are likely to trade in range of 6500-7400.

BULLIONS

Gold prices posted their best week since mid-January, as the U.S. dollar eased, while traders assessed prospects of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Interest rate hikes to contain high inflation discourage investors from placing money in non-yielding assets such as gold. There’s been a little bit of position-squaring ahead of what is the main event risk left for the week, which is a bunch of different Fed speak and the services ISM numbers. The dollar index was headed for its first weekly loss since January, making bullion more affordable for buyers holding other currencies. The impact of higher U.S. interest rates on the economy may only begin to "bite" in earnest this spring, an argument for the Fed to stick with "steady" quarter-point rate increases. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week, adding to fears that the Fed would keep hiking interest rates for longer. Another report showed labour costs grew much faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. Money markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.453% in September. On Comex, Gold prices facing resistance near $1845 break above will push prices to $1860/1880 whereas on the lower side $1800 remains key for the buyers. Silver stuck in the wider range of $19.80-$22.65. Ahead in the week gold prices may witness some short-covering but main trend is still bearish sell on rise would be good strategy and the possible trading range would be 53800-57500 levels. Silver on MCX may continue to trade within the wider range of 62500-68000 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil posted positive returns as expectations demand from China is on the rise more than offset worries over higher interest rates. Recovering demand from China, the world's No.1 oil importer, is supporting prices as the country reported manufacturing activity rose by the most in a decade. However concerns Western economies are poised for a recession as central banks raise interest rates to slow their economies to bring inflation to heel are limiting oil's gains. The European Central Bank reported Eurozone inflation rose a more than expected 8.5% in February. The message on disinflation has therefore continued to weaken and both Fed and ECB are likewise pressured to do more on policy tightening to ensure the inflation comes back to target. With a hawkish Fed having been priced in, the dollar has started to weaken allowing traders to return their focus to an on-going recovery in China. The strength of which was confirmed overnight when China's PMI data showed across the board strength. The official headline surged to 52.6 and highest since 2012 while production and new orders improving markedly and new export orders move well above 50 and into expansion territory for the first time in 23 month. Ahead in the week, crude oil prices continued to trade higher where it may trade in the range of 6000-6800 levels. Natural gas jumped to 5 week high as investors worried tomorrow's EIA storage report could see another smallerthan- normal withdrawal, potentially causing a 15% inventory surplus to widen to 20% or more above normal. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade with bullish bias where it may take support near 200 and resistance near 270 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in range as prospects of prolonged interest rates hikes globally may stall economic growth while strong factory activity data out of top metals consumer China may bolster demand prospects. China is becoming increasingly ambitious with its 2023 economic growth target, aiming potentially as high as 6%, in a bid to boost investor and consumer confidence and build on a promising post-pandemic recovery. China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, an official index showed. Copper may trade in the range of 750-785 levels. Global copper smelting activity declined in February despite a further rebound in activity in top refined metal producer China, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. Chile's total copper production rose 2.9% in January to 437,900 tonnes, government body Cochilco said. Meanwhile, concerns about global supply eased. The Panamanian government and Canada's First Quantum are nearing an agreement on their negotiations over the contract to operate a major copper mine. Zinc can trade in the range of 260-280 levels. Lead can move in the range of 178-187 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 205-217 levels. Despite the improving automotive production levels in Euro zone, the aluminium demand has not yet been boosted, and metal requirements still reduced amid remaining stocks. Steel long (Mar) is likely to trade in the range of 48000-50000 levels on NCDEX with bearish bias. Chinese steel mills are expected to replenish iron ore inventories to meet production needs after some mills resumed production. Along with improved demand from steel consumption sectors, strong raw material prices may provide support to the steel market.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton/Kapas prices are expected to trade sideways to down due to muted industrial buying. Higher production outlook of cotton and heavier stocks with farmers is likely to pull down the prices further. Daily cotton arrival was estimated to be around 1.40 - 1.70 lakh bales of 170 kg in India, while the Gujarat market noted an arrival of 40,000 bales on daily average basis in Gujarat. The Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption of the Ministry of Textiles estimates the crop size during the current season at 337.23 lakh bales (170 kg each), which is almost 8% more than the previous season. Consumption by textile mills, including the small-scale units, is likely to be 295 lakh bales in the current cotton season whereas exports are estimated at 35 lakh bales. Kapas Apr NCDEX prices are likely to trade in range of 1570-1700 levels. MCX cotton is likely to trade in range of 62000-64000 levels.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Mar futures are likely to trade higher due to shrinking supplies in the market. Demand has improved after recent downfall in prices as cotton seed prices has dropped by 15% from the high of 3000. Ginning activities has been down due to limited export demand of cotton that has impacted cotton seed production badly in year 2022-23. Buying activities has improved due to above normal temperature in northern part of India. Availability of green fodder has been impacted badly due to heat waves in northern part of India that led to rise in demand in cattle feed industry. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2400- 2800.

Guar seed Mar futures are expected to trade on weaker note due to limited buying in local market. Season export demand for gum is likely to be limited in March that will keep major buyers away from bulk buying of guar. However, losses are looking limited in guar due to reduced supply in local market. Arrivals have also dropped at major trading centers as farmers are holding in expectation of further rise in prices. Technically, Guar seed prices will honor the support of 5300 and will honor the resistance of 6000 in near term. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11200-13000.

Mentha oil Mar contract is likely to trade sideways to higher on improved demand outlook. Major focus will be on upcoming sowing numbers as sowing is likely to commence in western UP after the harvest of rabi crop. Above normal temperature in northern part of India is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely. Supplies have been tighter due to offseason period of arrivals. Prices may witness upside recovery with support of 1020 and will honor the resistance of 1070 in near term.

Castor seed Mar prices are likely to trade down due to improve supplies with advancement of harvesting activities. Sluggish export demand is still a major concern for castor oil traders as domestic stocks are surging up with fall in export. Castor oil export has slumped 16% Y-o-Y to 581.75 thousand tonnes during Jan-Dec’22 due to slowdown in economic activities in China. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6100-6900.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 776.75
M*.Low: 761.40

It closed at Rs. 763.10 on 02nd Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 755.96. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.933. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 770 for a target of Rs. 748 with the stop loss of 782

NATURAL GAS MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 368.10
M*.Low: 177.90

It closed at Rs. 227.40 on 02nd Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 274.53. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.156. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs. 220 for a target of Rs. 260 with the stop loss of 200.

GUARSEED NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 6106.00
M*.Low: 5553.00

It closed at Rs. 5595.00 on 02nd Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5971.49 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.915. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 5850 for a target of Rs. 5270 with the stop loss of 6150.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India’s gross domestic product slowed down to 4.4% in the third quarter (October-December) of the financial year 2022-’23, government data showed
  • The government has fixed a wheat procurement target of 34.15 million tonnes for the 2023-24 marketing year starting April, higher than 18.79 million tonnes purchased in the previous year.
  • The Food Corporation of India sold 5,40,000 tonne of wheat to private bulk buyers such as flour millers and food companies through the fourth e-auction, taking the total grain sold in open market this year to 2.35 MT.
  • India has decided to scrap a duty-free imports quota of 2 million tonnes of crude sunflower oil for the next fiscal starting from April 1, the government said.
  • India imported a record 1.6 million barrels per day of crude oil from Russia in February, which made up 35% of its total import.
  • Castor seed output in India is projected to increase by 15 per cent to 19.46 lakh tonnes for the year 2022-23: Agriwatch.
  • Chile's total copper production rose 2.9% in January to 437,900 tonnes, government body Cochilco said.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 28.97 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the survey found, up 150,000 bpd from January. Output is still down more than 700,000 bpd from September.
  • Gross natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states dropped by 3.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) to 109.2 bcfd in December from a record 112.3 bcfd in November, according to EIA's monthly production report.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB closed marginally up after two week fall at 296 as dollar index took a pause in the rally after a four week rise. After a sharp fall of three week, gold took support near $1805. Silver took support after a six week fall, near$21. Gold prices advanced as recent comments from Federal Reserve officials helped provide more clarity on the path of monetary policy this year. Natural gas saw further much needed strength from the lower side. Crude oil too closed up as renewed optimism on China's demand recovery over-rode recession worries brought by growing crude inventories in the U.S. and tightening monetary policy in Europe. Brent has climbed about 1.5% so far this week, on course for a second consecutive week of gains, while WTI has jumped about 2% on the hope of strong growth in fuel demand in China, the world's top oil importer. The market shrugged off a 10th consecutive week of crude stock builds in the United States, as record exports of U.S. crude kept the build smaller than in recent weeks. Natural gas prices shed some of its weekly gain after the U.S. government’s report of a larger-than-expected weekly draw of the fuel from storage failed to impress a market more concerned about an overall supply glut. Base metals prices augmented; aluminum prices rebounded from four week low on improved sign from China. In China, activity in the services sector expanded at the fastest pace in six months in February as the removal of tough COVID-19 restrictions revived customer demand. Manufacturing activity in China also grew last month, at the fastest pace in more than a decade, reinforcing expectations of a fuel demand recovery. China's seaborne imports of Russian oil are set to hit a record high this month. But the red metal logged steep losses on Thursday amid growing fears of a U.S. recession this year, which could significantly dent industrial activity. Data also showed this week that U.S. manufacturing activity has consistently declined over the past few months.

Castor continued its fall for third week. Cotton oil seed cake too traded week. Guargum and Guarseed couldn’t take the support from upside in crude oil prices. Higher stocks with farmers and muted export demand of gum weighed on prices. Jeera and turmeric prices slipped whereas dhaniya saw some rebound. Downside was limited as jeera production is expected to be down by 5-8% in year 2023 due to fall in area in Gujarat. Improved festive demand and export enquires will keep the market sentiments up. Weakening yield prospects due to adverse weather condition in major growing states is likely to support firmness in prices. Temperature is likely to remain above normal in Mar’23 as well that will lead to early ripening of dhaniya crop. Mentha was in a range.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

2nd Advance Estimates for 2022-23……Again on new records

The Second Advance Estimates of production of major crops for the year 2022-23 have been released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. As per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2022-23, total food grains production in the country is estimated at record 3235.54 lakh tonnes which is higher by 79.38 lakh tonnes as compared to previous year 2021-22. Union Minister for Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Shri Narender Singh Tomar said that the new record of food grains production in the country is the result of hard work of farmers, efficient research of scientists and farmer friendly policies of the Government.

While appreciating the increase in the production of coarse grains in advance estimates, Shri Tomar hoped that there would be further increase in the production and use of coarse grains/nutritious grains in the coming years. It may be noted that the year 2023 has been declared by the United Nations as the International Year of Millets. Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given the name of 'Sri Anna' to coarse grains / nutritious grains

The record production of food grains, which has been rising continuously every year since 2016-17, has helped India to be among the top 10 agricultural produce exporters in the world.

Total production of Rice during 2022-23 is estimated at (record) 1308.37 lakh tonnes. It is higher by 13.65 lakh tonnes as compared to previous year.

The production of Wheat (record) in the country is estimated at 1121.82 LMT which is higher by 44.40 LMT as compared to previous year’s production.

Production of Maize in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at (record) 346.13 lakh tonnes which is higher by 8.83 lakh tonnes than the previous year production of 337.30 lakh tonnes.

Production of Nutri / Coarse Cereals is estimated at 527.26 lakh tonnes which is higher by 16.25 lakh tonnes than the previous year’s production.

The production of Moong is estimated at a new record of 35.45 LMT which higher by 3.80 LMT as compared to previous year’s production.

Total Pulses production during 2022-23 is estimated at 278.10 lakh tonnes which is higher by 5.08 lakh tonnes than previous year’s production of 273.02 LMT and 31.54 LMT higher than the average pulses production of last five years.

The production of Soybean and Rapeseed & Mustard is estimated at 139.75 LMT and 128.18 LMT respectively, which is higher by 9.89 LMT and 8.55 LMT respectively than the production of previous year 2021-22.

Total Oilseeds production in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 400.01 lakh tonnes which is higher by 20.38 lakh tonnes than the previous year’s oilseeds production.

Total production of Sugarcane in the country during 2022-23 is estimated at record 4687.89 lakh tonnes. The production of sugarcane during 2022-23 is higher by 293.65 lakh tonnes than the previous year’s production.

Production of Cotton is estimated at 337.23 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) and production of Jute & Mesta is estimated at 100.49 lakh bales (of 180 kg each).

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

Indian Rupee jumped sharply higher above 82.00 versus the dollar to hit one month high this week backed by strong corporate and equity flows from overseas investors. Inevitably we are heading to monetary policy divergence between Fed and RBI soon where the rupee may find room to rise further. Going forward, next week we think the pace of momentum in the rupee will continue and nudge higher towards 81.75 as well. Meanwhile, US bond yields which reflect rate expectations scaled higher tracking the recent hawkish comments from Fed officials. Notably, the 10- Y hit 4.0% for the first time since November while the 2-Y hit a 16-year high. Shorter durations are more rate sensitive than longer ones. However, the dollar index slightly retreated this week from its eight-week peak to face its first weekly loss since January. At the same EURUSD held strongly around 1.05 after markets priced the ECB terminal rate to be peaked around 4.00% against an estimated 3.00% earlier. However, rising US yields may cap any potential upside in the EURINR and GBPINR as well. Later next week US monthly jobs data will be key for the new set of triggers in the coming days.

USDINR (MAR)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.72 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.58 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.58 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.00.

One can sell near 82.25 for the target of 81.25 with the stop loss of 82.75.

GBPINR (MAR)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 98.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 99.13 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 99.70. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.00.

One can sell near 99.75 for the target of 98.75 with the stop loss of 100.25.

EURINR (MAR) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 87.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 88.20 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 88.22. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.60.

One can buy near 87.10 for the target of 88.10 with the stop loss of 86.60.

JPYINR (MAR) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 60.00 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 61.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 61.75. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.90.

One can buy near 60.40 for the target of 61.40 with the stop loss of 59.90.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

IRM Energy and Lohia Corp get Sebi nod to raise funds via IPO

Cadila Pharma-backed IRM Energy and Kanpur-based Lohia Corp have received approval from Sebi for initial public offering (IPO). IRM Energy’s IPO is a complete fresh issue of up to 10,100,000 equity shares with a face value of Rs 10 per equity share. Meanwhile, Lohia Corp’s public issue is a complete offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 31,695,000 equity shares by existing shareholders with a face value of Re 1 per unit. IRM Energy is a city gas distribution company in India, engaged in the business of laying, building, operating and expanding the city or local natural gas distribution network. Meanwhile, Kanpur-based Lohia Corp is a leading global manufacturer of machinery and equipment used in the production of technical textiles, in particular, for manufacturing polypropylene (PP) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) woven fabric and sacks (Raffia), with a global market share of 17.5% across all Raffia machinery and over 28.7% for machines used in PP/ HDPE fabric making. HDFC Bank and BOB Capital Markets are the book-running lead managers for IRM Energy. On the other hand, ICICI Securities, IIFL Securities, HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, and Motilal Oswal Investment Advisory are the book-running lead managers for Lohia Corp.

Akme Fintrade files IPO papers with Sebi

Non banking financial company Akme Fintrade (India) Ltd has filed preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise funds through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The public issue comprises fresh issuance of 1.1 crore equity shares and no offer for sale (OFS) component, according to the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). Proceeds of the issue will be used to argument capital base of the company. Udaipur-based Akme Fintrade is primarily engaged in providing rural and semi-urban centric lending solution to customers in four states -- Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The company's portfolio includes vehicle finance and business finance products to small business owners. Gretex Corporate Services Ltd is the sole book running lead manager to the issue. The equity shares of the company will be listed on the BSE and NSE.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

Bajaj Finserv gets Sebi approval for mutual fund business

Bajaj Finserv has received the final nod from markets regulator Sebi to commence its mutual fund business. Its asset management business has been named Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund. Ganesh Mohan, who has been part of Bajaj Finserv for eight years and worked as group head - corporate strategy, will take over as the chief executive officer at the fund house. Nimesh Chandan will be the chief investment officer. Chandan was the CIO at Canara Robeco AMC. Bajaj Finserv will be the 43rd player in the Indian mutual fund industry which has assets of ₹40.80 lakh crore.

MOSL MF introduces fixed SWP feature to promote regular income through Mfs

The new feature enables investors to generate regular cash flow at a fixed percentage and predefined frequency. Investor can start with minimum withdrawal amount of Rs. 500 per month or above depending on their cash flow requirement. The frequency can be marked as monthly, quarterly or annually. The withdrawal rate has been kept at 6% as default which investor can change to choose from either 8%, 10%, 12% per annum. The default withdrawal date is set at 7th for every month but can be changed to choose from either 1st, 14th, 21st or 28th. The new feature aims to help investors generate regular income and create a legacy. In a press release, Navin Agarwal, MD & CEO, Motilal Oswal MF said, "Retirement planning can be a daunting task, but with the right investment strategy, it can also be an exciting opportunity to secure financial stability for your golden years. FAB provides an excellent option for not only retirees but also other investors seeking a reliable source of income, with the potential to generate steady returns on their investments.”

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 02/03/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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