Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

Global stock market witnessed volatile movement as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded hawkish. Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is prepared to quicken the pace of interest-rate increases if warranted. The economic data from US & Eurozone indicated recovery in services and Manufacturing activities in February while US housing market remained on downslide. On the flip side, data released on Thursday showed U.S. jobless claims rose 11 per cent last week - the largest increase in five months - while planned layoffs for February jumped four-fold, year-on-year. Fed is expected to increase rates by half a percentage point at its next meeting which is scheduled on March 21-22. In the case of China, the country’s central bank vows to adjust monetary policy appropriately and in a timely manner. China’s consumer and producer prices remained subdued in February as food and commodities costs eased, suggesting the country’s reopening won’t be adding to global inflation pressures. While Consumer spending in China has picked up rapidly in recent weeks, especially on eating out and travel, giving a boost to an economic recovery that’s become increasingly reliant on local demand. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has said that it will stick to its longstanding monetary easing policies, with Haruhiko Kuroda making no surprise moves in his final policy meeting as governor. Japan Consumption rebounded by most since March despite inflation.

Back at home, domestic markets continued to remain volatile on the bank mixed global cues amid other domestic factors as investors returned to trade after a midweek holiday for Holi. So far this year, foreign investors have sold Indian equities worth $2.52 billion, though they turned buyers in March. The stock market may remain choppy amid fears the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates to combat sticky inflation. Investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will be monitored.

On the commodity market front, a range bound with downside move witnessed in CRB as appreciation in dollar index suppressed commodities prices. Gold saw clear fall but silver was weaker; breached $20 last week. Commodities may remain trade with bearish sentiments on weaker economic data’s. Gold and silver can trade in range of 54000-56200 and 60500-64000 respectively. Crude can touch 6000-6050 on lower side on weak demand outlook for 2023. Base metals will trade in a range after a fall of previous week. On 14th March, MCX will launch Natural Gas Mini Futures, which is most likely to attract more traders in this counter. Westpac Consumer Confidence Index of Australia, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate of UK and Australia, Core Inflation Rate, PPI, Retail Sales, Building Permits Prel, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel and Inflation Rate of US, GDP Growth Rate of New Zealand, ECB Interest Rate Decision, ECB Press Conference and Core Inflation Rate YoY Final of Euro Area and many more important data’s scheduled this week which will help to clear the trend of commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Unemployment rate in India inched higher to 7.45% in February 2023 from 7.14% in January 2023, taking the total number of unemployed in the country to 33 million compared to 31.5 million in January. This is on the back of a significant increase in rural unemployment after it was on a decline in the preceding four months.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Alembic Pharmaceuticals has received tentative approval from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) Brexpiprazole Tablets, 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, 1 mg, 2 mg, 3 mg and 4 mg. The approved ANDA is therapeutically equivalent to the reference listed drug product (RLD), Rexulti Tablets, 0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, 1 mg, 2 mg, 3 mg and 4 mg, of Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Limited (Otsuka).
  • Natco Pharma announced the launch of additional strengths for the generic version of Revlimid® (lenalidomide capsules), in 2.5 mg, and 20 mg strengths, in the United States, through its marketing partner Teva Pharmaceuticals, a U.S. affiliate of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries.
  • Zydus Lifesciences has received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for Erythromycin Tablets USP, 250 mg and 500 mg (USRLD: Erythromycin Tablets). Also, received final approval from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for Lenalidomide Capsules, 2.5 mg and 20 mg (USRLD: Revlimid® Capsules).
Construction
  • PNC Infratech declared as L1 bidder for two highway projects worth Rs 2,004 crore in Bihar. These two highway projects, which come under Bharatmala Pariyojana in Bihar on Hybrid Annuity Mode, are to be constructed in 24 months and operated for 15 years, post construction.
  • NBCC (India) has been awarded with the work order worth Rs 229.81 crore for construction of new campus for Indian Institute of Foreign Trade at Kakinada.
  • G R Infraprojects has been emerged as lowest (L-1) bidder for a tender by National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) under Bharatmala Pariyojana in Bihar on hybrid annuity mode. The bid project cost stood at Rs 1,248.37 crore. The construction is expected to be completed in 730 days from appointed date and the operation period is 15 years from the commercial operation date.
  • PSP Projects has received work orders worth Rs 123.38 crore in institutional, industrial and residential categories. With the above orders, the total order inflow for current financial year stands at Rs 3,415.97 crore.
Information Technology
  • Sonata Software has announced that it has signed a Global Gold Services partnership agreement with Sinequa, the leading enterprise search cloud company. This partnership enables Sonata to offer its customers a powerful intelligent search solution on which knowledge-intensive organizations can support enterprise-wide search and develop customized domain and situational applications.
Forging
  • Bharat Forge through its E -Mobility subsidiary, Kalyani Powertrain, inaugurated its first E-bike manufacturing facility at MIDC Chakan on 08 March 2023. The facility has a production capacity of 60,000 units per annum and scalable to 100,000 units per annum, will undertake assembly of E-bikes for Tork Motors, 64.29% owned by Kalyani Powertrain.
Gas
  • Mahanagar Gas has entered into a pact to acquire Unison Enviro, a subsidiary of Ashoka Buildcon, for Rs 531 crore.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

CORPORATE ACTIONS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US initial jobless claims climbed to 211,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 190,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to inch up to 195,000.
  • US trade deficit widened to $68.3 billion in January from a revised $67.2 billion in December. Economists had expected the trade deficit to climb to $68.9 billion from the $67.4 billion originally reported for the previous month.
  • US wholesale inventories fell by 0.4 percent in January after inching up by 0.1 percent in December. The drop matched expectations as well as the preliminary estimate.
  • Producer prices in Japan were down 0.4 percent on month in February. That was beneath expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the flat reading in January.
  • China's Consumer prices grew 1.0 percent on a yearly basis in February that was weaker than the 2.1 percent gain in January. This was the slowest pace since February last year and was below economists' forecast of 1.9 percent increase.
  • Japan's Gross Domestic Product was flat on a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2022. That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.2 percent following the 0.3 percent contraction in the third quarter.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

HAVELLS INDIA LIMITED
CMP: 1214.30
Target Price: 1472
Upside: 21%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1405.85/1058.70
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 76077.08
  • EPS (Rs.) 17.02
  • P/E Ratio (times) 71.35
  • P/B Ratio (times) 12.32
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.61
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Havells India is a leading fast moving electrical goods (FMEG) company and a major power distribution equipment manufacturer.
  • During Q3FY23, Margin expansion across segments benefited from stability in raw material prices. Moreover, cable margins recovered post liquidation of high-cost inventory. Contribution margin of Lloyd stood at 3.7% against -1.7% in Q2FY23 and according to the management of the company, the margin of that would further improve in Q4FY23.
  • Lloyd maintained growth momentum in Q3FY23; however, margins remain under pressure owning to high-cost inventory and market competitiveness. Encouraging channel pickup in Lloyd for the upcoming season. The management of the company expects improvement from Q4FY23 onwards.
  • In the Lighting segment, contribution margins were normal at 28-30% in Q3FY23. The professional lighting business delivered a better performance, whereas the consumer segment remained weak (60% of overall lighting business). Management believes that the lighting space is likely to exhibit good traction in the medium term.
  • In the Switchgears segment, construction demand is witnessing a blip, but management remains optimistic in its longer-term outlook citing an uptick in the property cycle.
  • Transition to new Bureau of Energy Efficient (BEE) standards impacted the consumer durables volume but the company is well-managed the transition BEE change in fans and it is expected that BEE Rating norms are likely to spur industry consolidation in favour of organized players, but the near-term outlook is uncertain. More clarity will emerge once consumer trends are identified. Over the long term, expect top players to be the biggest beneficiaries.
  • During the quarter, on a consolidated basis, net sales has increased 12.65% to Rs 4127.67 crore predominately driven by strong show in the Cables and Wires (C&W) and the Lloyds businesses. Revenue from other segments, such as switch gears, Lighting & fixtures and consumer durables seen moderate performance.

Risk

  • Regulatory risk
  • Technological changes risk

Valuation

According to the management of the company, amidst the moderating consumer demand, a steady performance during the quarter was supported by the B2B businesses and recent channel expansion initiatives such as rural and e-commerce continue to deliver healthy growth. Lloyd maintained its growth momentum; however, margin recovery has been slow. Moreover, the management expects further improvements from Q4FY23 onwards and there was a strong recovery in contribution margins across segments, especially cables, on a sequential basis. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1472 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 3 yrs average P/BV of 12.44x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.118.29.

P/B Chart

LEMON TREE HOTELS LIMITED
CMP: 79.16
Target Price: 97
Upside: 22%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 103.30/51.95
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 6271.42
  • EPS (Rs.) 0.58
  • P/E Ratio (times) 136.48
  • P/B Ratio (times) 7.40
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Lemon Tree Hotels Limited is India’s largest hotel chain in the mid-priced hotel sector, and sixth largest by consolidated inventory. It currently operates about 8,450 rooms in 88 hotels across 53 destinations, in India and abroad, under its various brands viz. Aurika Hotels & Resorts, Lemon Tree Premier, Lemon Tree Hotels, Red Fox Hotels, Keys Prima, Keys Select and Keys Lite.
  • Gross ARR increased by 24% from Rs. 4,644 in Q3FY20 to Rs. 5,738 in Q3FY23 and on a sequential basis, it has increased by 17% from Rs. 4,917 in Q2FY23. Occupancy on full inventory increased by 133 bps from 66.2% in Q2 FY23 to 67.6% in Q3 FY23.
  • The company is expected to sustain its growth even more in the coming quarters by focusing on the growth levers, like opening of Aurika, MIAL, in Q3 next year; accelerated growth in management and franchise portfolio with proportionate increase in fee-based income; further improvement in gross ARRs and occupancy for the LTH portfolio and a significant increase in ARR and occupancy in the Keys portfolio post renovations.
  • It has expanded its presence with the signing of 7 new hotels in the cities of Thekkady, Haridwar, Jamshedpur, Dehradun, Chandausi, Banswara and Tezpur. It also operationalized 3 hotels in this quarter, namely Lemon Tree Hotel in Kalina, Mumbai; Lemon Tree Hotel in Mukteshwar and Keys Lite by Lemon Tree in Vishakapatnam, which were in the pipeline in Q2 Fy23.
  • As per the company when the current pipeline becomes operational by CY 2024 and 2025, it would be operating ~11,450 rooms in 126 hotels across 81 destinations.
  • Revenue from operations stood at Rs. 233.5 Cr in Q3 FY23, up 17% as compared to Rs. 199.6 Cr in Q3 FY20. On a sequential basis, revenue from operations increased 19% from Rs. 196.7 Cr in Q2 FY23. EBITDA margin expanded by 1,265 bps from 41.6% in Q3FY20 to 54.3% in Q3FY23 and on a sequential basis, it has increased by 648 bps from 47.8% in Q2FY23.

Risk

  • Intense competition
  • Economic slowdown

Valuation

The company has been witnessing improvement in its average room rate and occupancy level. In the next two years the company plans to add 11450 rooms indicating future growth visibility. Its cost optimization has led to improvement in EBITDA margin which auger well for the company in terms of more cash generation to fund part of its capex through internal accruals. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 97 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on target P/BVx of 7.05x and FY24 BVPS of Rs.13.69E

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LIMITED (SAIL)

The stock closed at Rs 88.10 on 10th March, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 63.60 on 20thJune, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs. 112.35 on 11th April, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 85.40.

From last one month, stock can be seen fluctuating in a broader range of 81 to 87 as prices seen waving around its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts. Technically, stock has formed double bottom pattern around 81 levels and regain its momentum above its 200 days exponential moving average, as prices can be seen rising with formation of higher bottom pattern. At current juncture a fresh breakout above “W” pattern has been observed on daily charts along with positive divergences in secondary oscillators. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 87-88 levels for the upside target of 97-98 levels with SL below 82 levels.

BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LIMITED (BALRAMCHIN)

The stock closed at Rs 399.35 on 10th March, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs 307.30 on 31st October, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs.525.90 on 08th April, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 373.

From last two months stock has been trading in a downward sloping channel with formation of lower high and lower bottom pattern. However after forming “Double Bottom” pattern around 355 levels, stock recovered sharply and gave breakout above the falling trend line of downward sloping channel. The rise in volumes along with rise in price suggests, long build into a stock. Therefore, one can buy stock in the range of 395-399 levels for the upside target of 445-450 levels with SL below 365 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

Once again, bears took the charge over Indian markets, as Nifty & Bank Nifty settled the week with loss of more than 1%, largely taking cues from weak global sentiments. From sectorial front, banking and financial stocks took a deep cut, while energy counter witnessed short covering over the week. From derivative front, call writers were seen adding hefty open interest at 17500 & 17700 strike, while marginal put writing was observed at 17400 strike. The Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 11.41% while that for put options closed at 12.29%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 12.73%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.26. Technically, Nifty has once again slipped back below its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts, which is placed at 17580 levels and now will act, as a strong resistance for index. Bank Nifty, has its strong support area at 40000 zone, below which we may witness fresh round of selling into the prices. For upcoming week, markets are expected to remain on volatile path, as tug of war among bulls and bears can fluctuate markets in a broader range with negative biasness.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 09th March, 2023

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric NCDEX Apr futures are expected to trade down with surging arrival pressure at major trading centers. Arrival pace has picked up in benchmark Nizamabad market as about 22000-26000 levels is being arrived on daily basis. Similarly, arrivals in Sangli, Selam, Erode has also improved that will put pressure on prices. However, cumulative arrivals at major mandies have been down by about 60% Y-o-Y in Mar’23. About 17 thousand tonnes were arrived during 1-10th March’23 as compared to 43 thousand tonnes of previous year. Local spice millers demand has been bleak wherein export enquires premium quality of turmeric in Nizamabad is improving that will cap the major downfall in prices. Turmeric Apr contract is expected to slip towards the support of 6600 and will honor the resistance of 7460 in near term.

Jeera NCDEX Apr futures are likely to trade sideways to down due to increased supply condition. Fresh arrivals have increased in Unjha market of Gujarat and likely to surge up in Rajasthan as well. About 55000-60000 bags are being arrived on daily basis. Yield has been good in Rajasthan that will lead to rise in production Rajasthan significantly. Total production is estimated to increase by 28% Y-o-Y to 384 thousand tonnes in year 2023 as Federation of Indian Spices Stakeholder. However, losses are likely to be limited as prices are holding strong support near 29000 levels and buying is visible when prices come near to this level. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 29000-34000 levels.

Dhaniya NCDEX Apr prices are expected to trade on negative note due to improved supplies in Rajasthan. Overall production of Dhaniya is estimated to be higher by 18%-20% that will reflect as sharp rise in arrivals in mar-Apr. Demand has been subdued as major buyers and spices millers are avoiding bulk buying with rising supplies of new arrivals in major mandies. However, there is weather risk to crop as above normal temperature Rajasthan in Mar will lead early ripening of crop that will affect the yield and harvesting activities adversely. Dhaniya NCDEX Apr Prices are likely to trade in range of 6500-7400 levels.

BULLIONS

Gold prices posted bearish move as elevated dollar, with demand for the nonyielding asset blunted by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalling more rate hikes. The dollar hovered near multi-month highs, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. Powell reaffirmed his message of higher and potentially faster interest rate hikes, but emphasized that debate was still underway and a decision would hinge on data still to be issued before the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting in two weeks. Gold fell nearly 2% following Powell’s comments. Gold will trade defensively, likely straddling $1,800 into the March FOMC as Powell created uncertainty over both the size and end of rate hikes. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields firmed, restricting interest in bullion. Gold’s appeal tends to dim when rate hike expectations rise because higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Markets are pricing in a peak in the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rates at 5.475% in July. Although we have seen some recovery in the gold after data showed that weekly U.S. jobless claims grew more than expected, spurring hopes that a softening labor market could pave the way for less-aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. On COMEX Gold prices stuck in the range of $1800-$1860. Silver prices may continue to trade with bearish bias and trade in the range of $18.00-$20.90. Ahead in the week, gold prices on MCX may trade in the wider range and witness both side movements and the possible trading range would be 54200-56500 levels. On the Contrary, silver may trade with bearish bias and the possible trading range would be 59000-65500 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil prices witnessed selling thorough out the week on increased worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve may go too far with its interest rate hikes to control inflation, which could cause a recession and reduce future oil demand. The U.S. central bank uses higher interest rates to reduce inflation. But those higher rates increase consumer borrowing costs, which can slow the economy. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased by the most in five months last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a tight labour market. Renewed hawkishness from the Fed is pushing investors to game out how a regime of “higher for longer” interest rates could weigh on U.S. stocks with some market watchers saying the combination of higher bond yields and sticky inflation bodes poorly for equity returns. Meanwhile, a group of bipartisan U.S. senators said they have reintroduced legislation to pressure OPEC to stop making output cuts. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm also said that any further releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve would be due to disruptions like the war in Ukraine. Ahead in the week prices will continue to witness selling pressure where it may take support near 5700 levels and could face resistance near 6400 levels. US natural gas futures hovered below $2.6/MMBtu after the latest EIA report showed that last week's storage withdrawal was lower than usual for this time of year as mild weather kept heating demand low. Ahead in the week prices may continue to trade in the wider range of 180-225 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as fears over persistent interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve may continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Upcoming interest rate hikes aimed at fighting stubbornly high inflation exacerbated concerns over economic activities and global demand of industrial metals. Sluggish demand in top metals consumer China is also major concern. Many investors remained upbeat about the prospects for industrial metals in the medium and long-term, however, and are buying when prices drop to certain levels. Copper may trade in the range of 720-760 levels. Easing supply disruptions in major copper producing countries may pressurize the prices. Panama's government and Canada's First Quantum Minerals agreed on the final text for a contract to operate the Cobre Panama mine, and Panamanian authorities allowed the company to resume concentrate loading operations. Disruptions in Peru and Indonesia have also eased. China, the world's top copper smelter, produced 907,800 tonnes of refined copper in February, up 6.5% on-year and slightly higher than the expected 900,000 tonnes, according to Shanghai Metals Market, anticipating March output to reach 949,500 tonnes. Zinc can trade in the range of 245-270 levels. Lead can move in the range of 178-187 levels. Aluminum may trade in the range of 195-210 levels with bearish bias as an improved supply view from China after Yunnan smelters were said to have satisfied the necessary output cuts to comply with power rationing requirements. Despite the improving automotive production levels in Euro zone, the aluminium demand has not yet been boosted, and metal requirements still reduced amid remaining stocks. Steel long (Mar) is likely to trade in the range of 48000-50000 on NCDEX with bearish bias.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton/Kapas prices are expected to trade sideways to down due to muted industrial and export. The Indian cotton crop is expected to be around 321 lakh bales (170kg each) this year, but low international demand and higher prices of Indian cotton may result in a record low of cotton exports at just 30 lakh bales this year as compared to 45 lakh bales of last year. Despite an increase in production compared to last year, exports will reach historic lows. From October 2022 to February 2023, cotton exports were only about 8 lakh bales, the lowest in recent years. Higher production outlook of cotton and heavier stocks with farmers is likely to pull down the prices further. Kapas Apr NCDEX prices are likely to trade in range of 1570-1660 levels. MCX cotton is likely to trade in range of 62000-65000 levels.

Cotton seed oil cake NCDEX Apr futures are likely to trade down due to increased availability of alternative meal. However, supplies are still bleak due to fall in arrivals of cotton. Ginning activities has been down due to limited export demand of cotton that has impacted cotton seed production badly in year 2022-23. Availability of green fodder has dropped due to heat waves in northern part of India that led to rise in demand in cattle feed industry in Mar. Cotton seed oil cake prices are likely to trade in range of 2400- 2800 levels.

Guar seed Apr futures are expected to trade on weaker note due to limited buying in local market. Arrivals are expected to increase in fear of further fall in prices. Demand from exporters has been subdued due to bleak demand of gum. Season export demand of gum is likely to be limited in March that will keep major buyers away from bulk buying of guar. Guar seed prices will hold the support of 5300 and will honor the resistance of 6000 in near term. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11200-13000 levels.

Mentha oil Mar contract is likely to trade higher on weaker production outlook for upcoming season. Sowing has started in UP and sowing numbers are lower as compared to last year due to adverse weather condition. Above normal temperature in northern part of India is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely. Supplies have been tighter due to offseason period of arrivals. Prices may witness upside recovery with support of 1020 and will honor the resistance of 1070 in near term.

Castor seed Apr prices are expected to trade sideways to lower due to adequate supplies in the market. Daily arrivals have increased wherein crushing demand is still poor due to sluggish export of castor oil. Sluggish export demand is still a major concern for castor oil traders as domestic stocks are surging up with fall in export. Castor oil export has slumped 16% Y-o-Y to 581.75 thousand tonnes during Jan-Dec’22. Going forward, castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 6100-6900 levels.

10




COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 788.30
M*.Low: 742.50

It closed at Rs. 753.95 on 09th Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 754.99. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.765. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 756 for a target of Rs. 730 with the stop loss of 768.

LEAD MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: 190.10
M*.Low: 181.20

It closed at Rs. 182.35 on 09th Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 184.90. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.156. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 185 for a target of Rs. 178 with the stop loss of 188.

GUARSEED NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 6106.00
M*.Low: 5553.00

It closed at Rs. 5809.00 on 09th Mar 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 5872.64 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.095. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs. 5820 for a target of Rs. 5400 with the stop loss of 6050.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

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COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India’s gem and jewellery exports surged 24 per cent in February month to ₹28,833 crore, against ₹23,327 crore in the same period last year: Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council.
  • India exported 52% less finished steel, at 5.9 million tonnes, from April to February than it did a year earlier, as slowing global demand hit shipments, according to government data.
  • India’s combined exports of merchandise and services will be close to $750 billion this year: Chief Economic Adviser.
  • India will be the biggest carbon market in the world by 2030: Bureau of Energy Efficiency.
  • The government has cut the tax on the export of aviation turbine fuel to zero from Rs 1.5 per litre, and on the export of diesel reduced to Rs 0.5 per litre from Rs 2.5.
  • FSSAI directs officers to not delay clearance of imported pulses and edible oil consignments.
  • USDA raises corn ending stocks, lowers soybeans. Corn ending stocks are seen at 1.342 billion bushels, up 75 million bushels from February. Soybeans are pegged at 210 million bushels, potentially the lowest in seven years.
  • Govt fixes wheat procurement target at 34.15 million tones for 2023-24.
  • Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of copper reach $3.45 billion in February, the central bank said.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

A range bound with downside move witnessed in CRB as appreciation in dollar index suppressed commodities prices. Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed his message of higher and potentially faster interest rate hikes, but emphasized that debate was still underway with a decision hinging on data to be issued before the U.S. central bank’s policy meeting in two weeks. Gold saw clear fall but silver was weaker; breached $20 last week. Natural gas futures couldn’t sustain at higher side after a two week rise. Crude is trading in a band of four months and couldn’t face the resistance and closed the week near $77. Crude prices were under pressure on middling demand cues from China and hawkish signals on U.S. interest rates brewed increasing concerns over more headwinds to crude consumption this year. A potential showdown between the U.S. and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also kept oil markets on their toes. Industrial metals traded in red on Thursday as hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair offset support from improving demand in top consumer China. Copper lost its strength for nonstop three week. Lead couldn’t retain its previous week gain; story was same for the aluminum and zinc too.

In agri, castor saw limited fall due to improve supplies with advancement of harvesting activities. Sluggish export demand is still a major concern for castor oil traders as domestic stocks are surging up with fall in export. Castor oil export has slumped 16% Y-o-Y to 581.75 thousand tonnes during Jan-Dec’22 due to slowdown in economic activities in China. Cotton oil seed cake and cotton both closed in red on absence of aggressive export enquiry. Guarseed and guar gum saw a pause in the fall in the prices. A range bound move noticed in spices but the bias was again of downside. Daily arrivals have started picking up in Telangana as well as in Maharashtra that will pull down the turmeric prices. Jeera prices were under pressure marginally as total production is estimated to increase by 28% Y-o-Y to 384 thousand tonnes in year 2023. Mentha was in range. Sowing has started in UP and sowing numbers are lower as compared to last year due to adverse weather condition. Above normal temperature in northern part of India is likely to affect the sowing activities adversely. Dhaniya prices were subdued on improved supply prospects for upcoming season. About 2-2.25 lakh bags of arrivals has been coming on daily basis in Gujarat and expected to increase further. Demand has been subdued as major buyers and spices millers are avoiding bulk buying with rising supplies of new arrivals in major mandies.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Natural Gas………… Mini futures contracts At MCX

Natural gas is gaining importance as an alternative source of clean and competitive energy that is used for heating, cooling, electricity generation, creating indispensable materials (such as steel and concrete) and more. It also fuels many industrial processes that produce materials and goods ranging from glass to clothing, and it is an important ingredient in products such as paints and plastics. Apart from physical market, it is also gaining popularity in exchange platform as well.

Natural Gas Mini futures contracts At MCX

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has launched the Natural gas Mini futures contracts with effect from March 14, 2023 onwards. Currently April and May contracts will be available for trading, expiring on Apr 25 and May 25, respectively. The contract would be cash settled based on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The decision aims to encourage broader participation of investors in the commodity derivatives market. This is significantly positive for small traders & investor of energy. This will provide the Indian energy market participants and opportunity to trade in natural gas rupee-denominated mini contracts that are linked to global price benchmarks.

Global Natural Gas Market

The global natural gas market suffered a major shock in 2022 as Russia cut pipeline deliveries to Europe substantially, placing unprecedented pressure on supply and triggering a global energy crisis. Despite this, European countries were able to fill their underground gas storage sites well above historical averages, supported by a combination of targeted policy measures, a record inflow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a steep drop in consumption, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Nevertheless, the global gas balance is fragile and a number of uncertainties in 2023 exist. Gas importing markets remain exposed to a tight supply environment and the impacts of further cuts from Russia are cause for concern.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

17

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Economic gauge for the next week

Major Macroeconomic Indicators

Market Stance

Indian Rupee closed the week in red above 82.00 ended on Thursday after Fed Chair Jay Powell smashed down hope of any ease in rate hike prospects. Accordingly, Fed Chair Powell said that the level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated which lifted the dollar index to a 3-month high of 105.60. However, corporate dollar inflows were so strong they capped any major downside in the rupee. On top of that, the decline in oil prices by more than 5.0% this week gave more cushions to the rupee as well. With US payrolls number and US monthly inflation due on coming Tuesday will guide the USDINR pair with a tentative range between 81.75 - 82.35 as well. In the majors, the dollar rose nearly 1.2% against the euro on Powell's hawkish remarks last Tuesday which was the biggest intraday advance in the last five months and even the pound fell the heat to fall to the lowest in four months to $1.1832. In rupee terms, EURINR and GBPINR both plunged this week by more than a percent. Apparently, markets are pricing the Fed fund rate to peak around 5.65% in September while the probability of a 50-bps hike in March FOMC has increased to 60% from 22% before the Powell statement which may keep the uptrend in the US dollar against a basket of currencies.

USDINR (MAR)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The Pair has major support placed around 81.50 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 82.65 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently around 82.50 Levels. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.90.

One can sell near 82.25 for the target of 81.50 with the stop loss of 82.65.

GBPINR (MAR)is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 97.10 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 99.10 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently around 100.17. On the daily chart, the GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 45.82.

One can buy near 98.00 for the target of 99.00 with the stop loss of 97.50.

EURINR (MAR) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 86.49 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 88.00 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently around 88.00. On the daily chart, the EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.27.

One can sell near 87.30 for the target of 86.30 with the stop loss of 87.80.

JPYINR (MAR) is trading below its major Exponential Moving Average indicating downwards trends for short term view. The pair has major support placed around 59.60 levels while on higher side resistance is seen around 61.50 levels. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently around 60.60. On the daily chart, the JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.25.

One can sell near 60.60 for the target of 59.60 with the stop loss of 61.10.

18

IPO

IPO NEWS

The IPO of Global Surfaces is set to open on March 13

The initial public offering (IPO) of Global Surfaces is set to open on March 13 and will be available for subscription till March 15. The company has fixed a price band of Rs 133-140. Investors can bid for 100 shares in 1 lot and in multiples thereof. The shares are expected to get listed on March 23. About 50% of the issue is reserved for qualified institutional buyers (QIB), 35% for retail investors and 15% for non-institutional investors. The equity shares of the company are expected to be listed on March 23 on both exchanges. The IPO comprises fresh issuance of 85.20 lakh equity shares and an Offer For Sale of up to 25.5 lakh equity shares by promoters Mayank Shah and Sweta Shah. The company said IPO proceeds will be used for investment in its arm Global Surfaces FZE for part-financing its capex requirements of setting up the manufacturing facility in Dubai and other general corporate purpose. For FY22, the company posted a profit after tax of Rs 35.63 crore compared to Rs 33.93 crore in FY21. Unistone Capital is the sole book-running lead manager to the issue. Global Surfaces is in the business of processing natural stones and manufacturing engineered quartz. The company has two manufacturing facilities in Rajasthan. The Global Engineered Quartz market size was valued at $24,150 million in 2021 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7-8% by 2026.

Tata Technologies files IPO papers with Sebi

The Tata Group has filed papers with market regulator Sebi to launch the initial public offering (IPO) of Tata Technologies. The IPO is purely an offer for sale by the promoter Tata Motors and two other existing shareholders and doesn't involve any fresh issue of shares. The IPO is by way of an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 95,708,984 equity shares, representing approximately 23.60% of its paid-up share capital. As of now, Tata Motors holds 74.42% in Tata Technologies, Alpha TC Holdings Pte Ltd, a Singapore-based investment firm managed by Tata Capital Advisors, owns 8.96%, while Tata Capital Growth Fund owns another 4.48%.The IPO comprises OFS of up to 81,133,706 equity shares by Tata Motors, 9,716,853 equity shares by Alpha TC Holdings and up to 4,858,425 shares by Tata Capital Growth Fund I, each representing up to 20%, 2.40% and 1.20%, respectively of Tata Technologies paid-up share capital. In December, the Tata Motors board had approved a partial divestment of its stake in Tata Tech through a public float. The engineering unit of Tata Motors caters to the automotive, aerospace, industrial heavy machinery and others. As a global product engineering and digital services company, it helps companies in convergence of digital technology and traditional engineering to develop better products. In the nine-month period ending December 2022, the company had reported a revenue of Rs 3,011.8 crore, recording a growth of 15.5% on a year-on-year basis. The company's profit for the nine-month period came in at Rs 407.5 crore.

Nova Agritech files DRHP to raise funds via IPO

Telangana-based agri-input manufacturer Nova Agritech has filed its draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) papers with capital markets regulator SEBI to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). According to the draft papers, the issue with a face value of Rs 2 per equity share consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs 140 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 77,58,620 equity shares by Nutalapati Venkatasubbarao. The company and the selling shareholders, in consultation with the BRLMs, may consider a pre-IPO placement of equity shares of up to Rs 25 crores. If such placement is completed, the issue size will be reduced accordingly. The Offer is being made through the book-building process, wherein not more than 50% of the offer shall be available for allocation to qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), not less than 15% of the offer shall be available for allocation to non-institutional investors, and not less than 35% of the offer shall be available for allocation to retail individual investors. Out of the proceeds from the fresh issuance, an amount of Rs 14.20 crore will be utilised for investment in its subsidiary, Nova Agri Sciences, for setting up a new formulation plant, and Rs 10.49 crore will be utilised for funding capital expenditure by the company, towards the expansion of its existing formulation plant. Rs 26.69 crore will be allocated for capital requirements, and Rs 56.74 crore will be used for investment in its subsidiary Nova Agri Sciences Pvt Ltd for working capital requirements and general corporate purposes.

Airox Technologies scraps IPO plans; withdraws IPO paper

Medical equipment manufacturer Airox Technologies has decided to withdraw its Rs 750-crore initial public offering (IPO). The IPO was slated to be an offer-forsale (OFS) of equity shares by its promoters -- Sanjay Bharatkumar Jaiswal and Ashima Sanjay Jaiswal. The company has filed its preliminary papers for the proposed IPO on September 30, 2022 with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). However, the draft offer documents for the IPO were withdrawn on February 28 and the reasons for the withdrawal have not been disclosed, an update with the markets regulator showed. The Aurangabad-based company is a manufacturer of PSA (pressure swing adsorption) oxygen generator and has a market share of 50-55 per cent in terms of operational private hospital PSA medical oxygen market as of fiscal 2022. The company facilitates the penetration of on-premise PSA (pressure swing adsorption) oxygen generators in Indian hospitals with nearly 872 installed and operational PSA oxygen generators as of March 2022. PSA oxygen generators are the equipment that produce oxygen with purity using adsorbents to remove nitrogen gas from the air. These equipment provide a stable supply of oxygen at a lower cost than other traditional medical oxygen procurement methods.

IPO TRACKER

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

20

MUTUAL FUND

INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

MF inflow in equities crosses Rs 1.5-trn for second straight fiscal

Domestic mutual funds (MFs) have kept their faith in the Indian stock market despite multiple headwinds all through 2022-23 (Fy23), with their net flows into equities crossing the Rs 1.5-trillion mark for the second consecutive financial year. MFs pumped a net Rs 1.53 trillion into equities till March 1, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) data shows, as compared to Rs 1.72 trillion in FY22. Since FY15, MFs have been net buyers of equities, except in FY21, when they sold a net Rs 1.21 trillion. In the nine financial years between FY15 and FY23, they have pumped in a massive Rs 6.90 trillion in the Indian equity market. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), on the other hand, have recorded a net outflow of Rs 36,538 crore in the equity segment so far in FY23. This comes after a dismal FY22, when they pulled out Rs 1.42 trillion from the Indian equity market, the NSDL data shows.

UTI Mutual Fund launches UTI Long Duration Fund

UTI Mutual Fund (UTI) has launched UTI Long Duration Fund, an open-ended debt scheme that will invest in debt and money market instruments with the portfolio Macaulay Duration is above seven years. The scheme will have a relatively high interest rate risk and relatively low credit risk. The New Fund Offer (NFO) is open for subscription and will close on March 15. The scheme aims to generate optimal returns with adequate liquidity by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market instruments. The minimum application amount is Rs 5,000 and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. During the NFO period, the units of the scheme will be sold at face value - that is, Rs 10 per unit. The scheme will offer Regular Plan and Direct Plan – with Growth and IDCW options. The scheme will be benchmarked against CRISIL Long Duration Fund AIII Index. The scheme will be suitable for investors with long-term investment goals, investors who have a lowrisk appetite for credit exposures, seeking a high-quality portfolio and tax-efficient reasonable returns.

Bajaj Finserv gets Sebi approval for mutual fund business

Bajaj Finserv has received the final nod from markets regulator Sebi to commence its mutual fund business. Its asset management business has been named Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund. Ganesh Mohan, who has been part of Bajaj Finserv for eight years and worked as group head - corporate strategy, will take over as the chief executive officer at the fund house. Nimesh Chandan will be the chief investment officer. Chandan was the CIO at Canara Robeco AMC. Bajaj Finserv will be the 43rd player in the Indian mutual fund industry which has assets of Rs.40.80 lakh crore.

NEW FUND OFFER

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MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 09/03/2023
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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