Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, Grising bond yields after batch of economic data fell short of expectations, has heighten fear among the investors. Leading indicators such as PMI and retail sales in Europe and US indicate economic slowdown. However, on the weekly basis markets managed to close in green. Meanwhile the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell concluded his two-day testimony to US Congress overnight. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank is “strongly committed” to bringing down inflation and can do so with its monetary policy tools. Japan's annual core consumer inflation topped the central bank's target for a second straight month in May highlighting the intensifying pressure on the country's fragile economy from soaring global raw material costs. On the flip side, the pace of economic growth accelerated in Japan at the end of the second quarter according to the latest business surveys, indicating a strengthening of the recovery from the Omicron-related downturn at the start of the year. Oil prices continued to fall as investors recalibrated assessments of recession risks and fuel demand amid interest rate hikes in major economies.

Back at home, the domestic market ended the week on a positive note amid volatility. Correction in crude oil prices from the recent peaks and softening in commodity prices offered some relief to the markets in an otherwise high global inflation environment. The auto sector led the recovery amid softening in commodity prices. Advancement of the southwest monsoon beyond the Eastern parts of the country coupled with a fall in crude oil prices have raised hope that inflation will also cool off to some extent. The GST Council, which is scheduled to meet next week, will take up changes in tax rates on only a handful of items where the fitment panel has recommended a revision. Going forward, for cues, the performance of the global indices and crude movement will remain in focus.

On the commodity market front, Commodities are going through correction phase and we have seen three week nonstop decline from the top. CRB made a multiyear high of 351.25 and closed near 324 last week as quick rate hike by Fed has triggered a recession fear amid super rally in dollar index and US treasury yield. Sharp fall in energy counter led to fall in overall commodities complex. The Fed is not trying to engineer a recession to stop inflation but is fully committed to bringing prices under control even if doing so risks an economic downturn. Energy counter and base metals may see limited bounce as some weaker data are expected this week. Crude can move in a wide range of 7600-8500 whereas natural gas will see some recovery. Gold and silver will remain trade in a range of 49500-51200 and 58000- 62000 respectively. Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence, Core PCE Price Index, PCE Price Index, ISM Manufacturing PMI and GDP Growth Rate of US, GfK Consumer Confidence, Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate of Germany, NBS Manufacturing PMI of China, GDP Growth Rate of UK, Inflation Rate of France and Italy, Core Inflation Rate of Euro Area etc will give further direction to commodities.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • The government has extended the productivity-linked incentive scheme for the telecom industry by another year and has expanded its scope to cover design-led manufacturing. The Centre will provide additional incentives of over Rs 4,000 crore under the amended scheme.
Oil & Gas
  • Reliance Industries Ltd., controlled by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is assessing new technologies for making electrolyzers in its efforts to produce low-cost green hydrogen in the country.
  • The Hydrocarbon division of L&T Energy has secured three offshore packages from a prestigious overseas client. The scope of work comprises Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Installation for various new offshore jacket structures. According to the company's project classification, the contracts are classified as 'Large' ranging between Rs 2500 crore to Rs 5000 crore.
  • ONGC Videsh, the wholly owned subsidiary of Oil & Natural Gas Corpn has made an oil discovery in the recently drilled well, Urraca-IX, in CPO5 block, Llanos Basin, Colombia.
  • GAIL (India) plans to enter into distributed Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production to take the fuel to users. GAIL will liquefy or turn natural gas into liquid at sub-zero temperature and transport it in trucks to users.
Bank
  • HDFC Bank proposes to double its network of branches in the next three to five years by adding 1,500 to 2,000 branches annually, which would akin to adding a new HDFC Bank every five years.
Information Technology
  • HCL Technologies announced the opening of its new delivery center in Vancouver, Canada. The new center will significantly expand its presence in the country to serve clients primarily in the HiTech industry. The new, nearly 9,000-square-foot facility will be a state-of-the-art center enabling faster and streamlined delivery of innovative technology services.
  • L&T Technology Services announced that it has been positioned as a ‘Leader' in all 5 quadrants for the North America market in the 2022 ISG Provider Lens™ Digital Engineering Services report.
Logistic
  • Delhivery has announced plans to expand its infrastructure in two key cities of Bhiwandi (Greater Mumbai) and Bangalore. Delhivery is collaborating with Welspun on a 7 Lakh sq ft mega-gateway in Greater Mumbai and with GMR for a 1 Million+ sq ft facility in Bangalore.
Miscellaneous
  • Greenlam Industries has acquired the laminate manufacturing facility of Gujaratbased Bloom Dekor in a Rs 36 crore deal. With this acquisition, Greenlam will now have four strategically located laminate manufacturing facilities in India, situated at Behror (Rajasthan), Nalagarh (Himachal Pradesh), Naidupeta (Andhra Pradesh – Under Construction) and now Prantij (Gujarat).

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US existing home sales plunged by 3.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.41 million in May after slumping by 2.6 percent to a revised rate of 5.60 million in April. Existing home sales fell for the fourth consecutive month. Economists had expected existing home sales to tumble by 3.7 percent to a rate of 5.40 million from the 5.61 million originally reported for the previous month.
  • US industrial production crept up by 0.2 percent in May after surging by an upwardly revised 1.4 percent in April. Economists had expected production to rise by 0.4 percent compared to the 1.1 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.
  • US housing starts tumbled by 14.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.549 million in May after jumping by 5.5 percent to a revised rate of 1.810 million in April. Economists had expected housing starts to decrease by 1.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.701 million from the 1.724 million originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims dipped to 229,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level of 231,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to slip to 227,000 from the 229,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 2.5 percent on year in May. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous month.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

INDIAN HOTELS COMPANY LIMITED
CMP: 226.85
Target Price: 274
Upside: 21%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 268.85/128.99
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 32221.76
  • EPS (Rs.) 0.00
  • P/E Ratio (times) 0.00
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.56
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.19
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • The Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) has a portfolio of 221 hotels including 53 under development globally across 4 continents, 12 countries and in over 100 locations.
  • During the FY22, IHCL has raised Rs 4,000 crore, in which Rs 2,000 crore was by way of rights issue and an additional Rs 2,000 crore through QIP.
  • Roots Corporation (RCL) which operates the Ginger brand is now IHCL's wholly owned subsidiary. It has also opened five new hotels in Q4 FY 2021-22 across brands including Taj Exotica Resort & Spa, The Palm, Dubai; Raajkutir, Kolkata – IHCL SeleQtions; Vivanta Turbhe; Ginger Greater Noida and Ginger Kochi. The amã Stays & Trails homestay portfolio grew to over 80 bungalows across the country. Qmin, IHCL's culinary and food delivery platform, expanded to over 20 locations with 15 outlets and multiple food trucks across the country.
  • Recently, it has announced the addition of its second hotel in Rishikesh with the signing of a new SeleQtions resort. Moreover, Resort chain Leisure Hotels Group, which has a portfolio of 29 properties spanning North India, has partnered with IHCL-backed Ginger hotels to launch a new hotel in Greater Noida. Ginger will operate the 72-room hotel while Leisure Hotels Group will continue to manage the outdoor banquet halls and lawns for bespoke events.
  • It has also expanded the presence of Qmin “youngest brand” – its food delivery platform — to 19 cities delivering favorites from across 37 hotels and over 78 IHCL restaurants across India. Qmin app is also available across nine countries globally, giving people overseas the opportunity to gift meals to loved ones in India.
  • It has reported a 192% increase in EBITDA in the fourth quarter as compared to the same quarter last year. Business outlook is positive with April and May trending ahead of 2019. Its industry leading pipeline along with scaling up of high margin new business like Ginger, amã Stays & Trails and Qmin will provide further impetus.

Risk

  • Economy slowdown
  • Geopolitical tension

Valuation

The company has emerged strongly from the impact of pandemic and all round improvement was seen during FY22. The company is focused on expanding its business through asset light model and strengthened its balance sheet by reducing its debt and further committing it to achieve zero-debt in the long term. Going forward, the growth momentum is expected to continue on the back of expanding portfolio along with improvement in the RevPAR and occupancy level and upswing in domestic demand and recovery in the international markets. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.274 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BVx of 5.15x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.53.28.

P/B Chart

MINDA INDUSTRIES LIMITED
CMP: 917.10
Target Price: 1061
Upside: 16%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 1260.00/629.55/span>
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 26209.32
  • EPS (Rs.) 12.59
  • P/E Ratio (times) 72.84
  • P/B Ratio (times) 7.62
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.09
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Minda Industries is a flagship company of UNO MINDA Group, which manufactures automobile components for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). It offers wide product ranges like switches, lightings, seatings, castings, Acoutics, wheels etc catering to both domestic (85%) and international (15%) markets.
  • The consolidation of UNO Minda Group companies/ firms over the years into Minda Industries has transformed the company into a unique cohesive unit with considerable financial strength growing as a unified force. In this direction the company has increased its stake to 77%.35% in Minda Kosei Aluminum Wheels (P) (Minda Kosei) and would invest Rs 17.49 crore to acquire the remaining stake of promoters in four partnership firms, namely Samaria Engineering, SM Auto Industries, YA Auto Industries and auto components. This would conclude the company's consolidation exercise with all group companies.
  • Minda Kosei had significant growth opportunities with increasing penetration of 4W Alloy wheel. The company is expanding capacity at both plants at Bawal and Gujrat at capital expenditure of Rs. 74 core. Post which total capacity will increase to 3,30,000 wheels per month from current 2,10,000 by FY24. Minda Industry is also expanding its 2W Alloy wheel capacity by 2 mn wheels per annum at its existing Supa Plant in Maharashtra at capital expenditure of Rs. 190 crore.
  • The company has capex plan of Rs. 72.89 crore for its chennia plant engaged in the manufacturing of 4W switches. The commercial production of the project is expected to start from January 2023. It is also investing Rs. 36.80 crore in Vietnam to manufacture lighting products. The project is expected to be commissioned by December 2022.
  • The company has formed JV with FRIWO AG, an international manufacturer of technically leading power supply devices and e-drive solutions. It will hold majority stake of 50.1% in the JV. The company expects surge in two wheel electric vehicles over next 5-6 years in India. The JV plans to incur capex of approximately Rs 390 crore over a period of next 6 years to support such growth in India. Partnership will benefit the company to expand its product capabilities to serve rising EV opportunities.

Risk

  • Slowdown in demand for automobile
  • Shortage of electronic components

Valuation

The company is expected to benefit from the strong recovery in commercial vehicles and sign of recovery in 2W. Besides, the improvement in the supply of semiconductor and supply chain issue together with company’s expansion plans indicates revenue growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1061 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BVx of 7.62x and FY23 BVPS of Rs.139.28.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

PVR LIMITED (PVR)

The stock closed at Rs 1845.10 on 24th June, 2022. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1224.05 on 20th December, 2021 and a 52- week high of Rs. 2003.80 on 28th March, 2022. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1640.96

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows, which is bullish in nature. Despite the fall in the broader indices, the stock continued to hold its buying momentum and managed to close in positive territory, ended over 8% gains along with decent volumes, which indicates buying is aggressive for the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1825-1830 levels for the upside target of 2000-2050 levels with SL below 1740 levels.

SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED (SRTRANSFIN)

The stock closed at Rs 1245.30 on 24th June, 2022. It made a 52-week low of Rs 1002.00 on 08th March, 2022 and a 52- week high of Rs. 1696.40 on 09th November, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1205.63

As we can see on chart that stock has been consolidating in the wide range of 1000-1240 levels for six months with positive bias and has formed an “Inverted Head and Shoulder” pattern on weekly chart, which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock has given the neckline breakout of pattern along with high volumes and managed to close above the breakout of pattern so follow up buying may continue in coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1220- 1230 levels for the upside target of 1380-1420 levels with SL below 1160 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

After a sharp fall in the market, a relief rally was witnessed. Nifty future bounced back around 500 points from the previous low and closed with a gain of more than 2% on weekly charts. Auto stocks saw buying in last week, whereas metal stocks are still under pressure. Implied volatility (IV) of calls closed at 20.19%, while that for put options closed at 21.47%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 20.88%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.04. From the technical front, Nifty, on weekly charts, is able to close above its 100 days exponential moving average whereas banknifty still hovering around its average. From the derivative front, the highest open interest concentration in call is at 16000 strike which is also a psychological level, whereas in put, highest concentration is at 15500 strike. Call writers are active at 15900, 16000 and added hefty positions. In banknifty, highest open interest concentration is seen at 34000 call and 33000 put. In the upcoming week, 15300-15200 act as support whereas 15900-16000 as resistance in Nifty.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 23rd June, 2022

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Last week we have witnessed recovery in the spices counter from the lower levels but the trend still looks negative. Jeera futures slipped to 8-weeks low while turmeric and coriander futures touched 7-month and 3-month lows respectively. Turmeric (Jul) took support near 7580 levels and then recover about 3.7% continuously during the last week mostly on short covering. We expect it to trade sideways to higher towards 8200, if it sustains above 7900 levels. The reports of improving local demand and export enquiries are supporting prices from the lower levels. Prices have corrected about 7% in the previous week on good sowing progress in south India coupled with sufficient stock positions with farmers. Moreover, exports demands have been improving while the arrivals are matching the demand. Turmeric exports in Apr 2022 is higher 3.61% y/y at 13,760 tn vs 13, 280 tn while for the period of Jan-Apr 2022, exports are at par compared to last year figures of 50,500 tn. In FY 2021/22, exports were down 16.7% y/y at 1.53 lakh tons but higher by 10% compared with 5-year average.

Jeera (Jul) witnessed recovery from 8-week lows after showing continues negative closing for 5 consecutive weeks. Last week it took support at 20500 levels and improved 3.2% during the last week. We expect the prices to trade higher towards 21900, if it breaks 21250 levels. Prices have corrected about 12% since Apr 2022 due to lower exports and sufficient arrivals. Currently, prices are higher by 57.60% y/y on lower availability due to expectation of lower jeera production in 2021/22 compared to previous year. As per govt data, jeera exports in Apr 2022 down by 66% Y/Y at 10,700 tn, the lowest April month export volume in last 6 years while exports in first 4-months of 2022 down by 46% Y/Y to 54000 tn compared to 1 lakh tn last year.

Dhaniya (Jul) slipped to 12-weeks low last week and took support at 10774 levels but still looks in negative as it is facing resistance near 11250 levels. We expect it to trade sideways in the range of 10600 – 11400 levels. Currently also the prices are higher by 66% y/y due to lower crop estimates but it also corrected about 17% from the 2022 highs due to lower exports and higher arrivals in the physical market. As per govt data, coriander exports in Apr 2022 down 27.1% y/y at 4020 totn Vs 5500 tn last year while for Jan-Apr are also lower by 23.5% at 15,100 tn Vs 19,770 tn last year but 12% higher compared to 5-year average for same period.

BULLIONS

Gold was down throughout the week and set for its second straight decline, with worries of big interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve weighing on bullion demand. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank’s inflation fight is "unconditional" on Thursday, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she supports another 75-basis points interest rate hike in July, followed by a few more half-point hikes. U.S. Treasury yields fell to two-week lows, as investors worried about a possible global economic slowdown. The U.S. dollar remains firm, and expectations now lean towards a 75-basis-point Fed hike in July. The TIPS spread – a market-based proxy for inflation expectations – is also near a 4-month low, and these have kept a lid on any gold rally. Gold looks vulnerable over the near term, given its inability to break $1,850, its 200-day average. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest goldbacked exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.81% to 1,063.07 tons. Higher interest rates and bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields no interest. Global growth worries and inflation concerns have limited downside for gold but Fed’s stance may keep the US dollar supported and this may weigh on gold prices. On the technical front, COMEX Gold is facing resistance near $1860 as long as prices sustain below the level selling near resistance would be the strategy. Ahead of the week, prices may trade with sideways to negative bias where selling near resistance would be a strategy. Gold may trade in the range of 49200-51500 whereas silver may trade in the range of 57500-61800 levels.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Oil prices slipped and were heading for a second weekly fall, as tight supply was overshadowed by concern that rising interest rates could push the world economy into recession. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank's focus on curbing inflation was "unconditional," adding to fears about more interest rate hikes. The consensus remains that the oil market will see high demand and tight supply over the summer months, thereby limiting the downside. OPEC and allied producing countries including Russia will likely stick to a plan for accelerated output increases in August in hopes of easing crude prices and inflation as U.S. President Joe Biden plans to visit Saudi Arabia, sources said. The group known as OPEC+ agreed at its last meeting on June 2 to boost output by 648,000 barrels a day in July, or 7% of global demand, and by the same amount in August, up from the initial plan to add 432,000 barrels per day a month over three months until September. OPEC+, meet on June 30. Ahead in the week, crude oil prices may continue to witness both side movements where it may take support near 7800 and could face resistance near 8400. Natural gas prices found themselves under pressure after the release of the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. Looking at the overall trend, it is found that prices already broke the major support on MCX whereas on COMEX prices are trading near support of $6.100. Ahead in the week, natural gas prices may continue to witness selling and it may find support near 440 levels and could face resistance near 540 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade in range with negative bias as aggressive rate hikes by major central banks to combat soaring inflation has raised worries over an economic slowdown. The U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver another 75-basispoint rate hike in July, followed by a half-percentage-point rise in September, and won't scale back to quarter-percentage-point moves until November at the earliest, according to economists polled by Reuters. Manufacturing growth is slowing from Asia to Europe as China's COVID-19 curbs and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupt supply chains, while the growing risk of a recession in the United States poses a new threat to the global economy. Euro zone business growth has slowed significantly in June as consumers concerned about soaring bills opted to stay at home and defer purchases to save money, a survey showed. However short covering may provide some breather to bulls. Copper may trade in the range 680-725. Union leaders at Chile's state-owned mining firm Codelco, reached an agreement with the company to end a national strike over the decision to close a smelter located in a highly polluted area. Aluminum may trade in the range of 200-220 levels. Zinc can trade in the range of 298-320 levels. Available zinc inventories in registered warehouses of the LME more than halved last week, but supplies could be replenished from China, where stocks have been rising. The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 10,900 tonnes in April from a revised deficit of 31,700 tonnes a month earlier, data from the ILZSG showed. Lead can move in the range of 175-187. Nickel may trade in the range of 2050-2200 levels.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton (Jul) slipped more than 7% last week mostly on lower demand prospects at current higher levels and expectation of good output in coming season. We have witnessed fresh selling happening last week and expect to continue its negative trend in coming week too towards 38000. As per CAI, Cotton acreage seen rising 12% to 135 lakh ha despite drop in North. Currently, Cotton prices are 87% higher y/y due to lower stocks in the country amid lower production. Recently, CAI further lowers cotton crop estimate by more than 8 lakh bales this month to 315.32 lakh bales for 2021-22 season while the MSP is raised by 6.2% y/y in 2022-23 to Rs 6,080 per quintal. Cotton prices are correcting since one month as demand for cotton is limited from textile sector in South has taken decision to close 100% mills and stop buying of cotton. Moreover, we have seen higher imports in cotton and yarn in the month of May.

Guar seed (Jul) slipped to 10-months low last week due to profit booking on reports of normal monsoon by the weather department. But prices recovered a little on buying at lower levels. On weekly basis, we see support at 5300 levels and resistance at 5750 levels. It is expected to trade in range, if it sustains above support. Guar area in Rajasthan is down 64% Y/Y at 37,600 ha compared to 104,000 ha last year. Prices have corrected almost 19% from the 2022 peak despite good exports numbers. Guar gum exports in Apr 2022 higher by 7% y/y at 29,132 tn while exports during Jan-Apr 2022 is up by 22% y/y at 79,650 tn compared 65275 tn last FY. Guargum exports were down about 20% in last FY compared to previous five-year average of 4 lt exports.

Castor seed (Jul) closed lower for the 5th consecutive week after it touched its all-time high levels last month. Now we see support at 7000 while resistance at 7475 levels. We expect it to trade within the range of its support and resistance. Currently, prices are about 43% higher y/y due to slow start to sowing season and lower carry-over stocks. Gujarat kharif area under castor is 16 ha Vs 155 ha last year as per data released by the state agriculture dept. On the export front, castor meal and castor oil exports are higher in May 2022 despite higher prices in the domestic market. Persistence demand for castor seed will support prices during the sowing season.

Mentha oil (Jul) is trading in a range and closed lower last week due to absence of any fundamental trigger. It is taking support near 1035-1040 levels since last one month while the resistance is seen at 1080 levels. Going forward, the prices are expected to trade lower towards 950 if it sustains below the support levels.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD MCX (AUG)contract closed at Rs.50594.00 on 23rd Jun 2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 53904.00 on 18th Apr’2022 and a low of Rs. 49741.00 on 16th May’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 50808.18. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.385.

One can sell near Rs. 51000 for a target of Rs. 50100 with the stop loss of 51450.

NATURAL GAS MCX (JUL)contract was closed at Rs. 500.30 on 23rd Jun’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 749.10 on 08th Jun’2022 and a low of Rs. 487.20 on 23rd Jun’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 586.84. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.048.

One can sell near Rs. 510 for a target of Rs. 440 with the stop loss of Rs 545.

DHANIYA NCDEX (AUG)contract closed at Rs. 11240.00 on 23rd Jun’2022. The contract made its high of Rs. 12270.00 on 19th May’2022 and a low of Rs. 10900.00 on 21st Jun’2022. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 11414.87. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40.059.

One can buy near Rs. 11200 for a target of Rs. 11800 with the stop loss of Rs. 10900.

11

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • As per data from the International Nickel Study Group, the global nickel market deficit narrowed to 200 tonnes in April, compared with a shortfall a month earlier of 8,900 tonnes.
  • In its monthly report, International Copper Study group said that the world refined copper market showed a 3,000 tonne surplus in April, compared with a 22,000 tonne deficit in March.
  • Indonesia, the world's top palm oil exporter, has issued export permits for 894,481 tonnes of palm oil products under its Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) scheme.
  • China's crude oil imports from Russia soared to roughly 1.98 million barrels per day (bpd) OR up 55% from a year earlier to a record level in May, displacing Saudi Arabia as the top supplier.
  • India may allow exports of up to 500,000 mt wheat to Egypt and Jordan as they are finding it challenging to secure wheat supplies from Black sea.
  • CAI estimates cotton crop for 2021-22 season at 315.32 lakh bales – reduces the crop further by 8.31 lakh bales than its previous estimate.
  • IGC revises total grains output higher for 2021-22 at 2.29 billion tonnes, up 3% from 2.22 billion tonnes in 2020-21 on larger wheat and corn output.
  • The IGC raised its projection for 2021-22 global soybean production by 10 million tonnes, to 351 million tonnes, but it still is well short of last year’s output of 369 million tonnes.
  • The global zinc market moved to a surplus of 10,900 tonnes in April from a revised deficit of 31,700 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Commodities are going through correction phase and we have seen three week nonstop decline from the top. CRB made a multiyear high of 351.25 and closed near 324 last week as quick rate hike by Fed has triggered a recession fear amid super rally in dollar index and US treasury yield. Sharp fall in energy counter led to fall in overall commodities complex. US President Joe Biden said that a decision on temporarily halting the federal gasoline tax would come by the end of this week, exerted selling pressure in crude. Oil was also down as investors are worried that tightening monetary policy could trigger a recession and dampen fuel demand. The U.S. and European hedge funds have been selling off their positions ahead of the end of the second quarter, which is also cooling investor sentiment. Natural gas prices also slashed on weak demand and breached 500 on MCX. Russian pipeline gas supplies have dropped to their lowest in years, with Gazprom sales to non-CIS countries plunging to an average of 307 mcm/day. Bullion counter saw further pressure. Gold prices were a touch lower, with some support from a weaker dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, after the Federal Reserve's head said the central bank was fully committed to reining in inflation, and would try not to spark a recession in the process. Silver was weak too on fall in both gold and some base metals. Copper prices extended declines on Thursday to a 16-month low on COVID-19 concerns in China and mounting worries that aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes would tip the global economy into recession, slashing metals demand. Japan's factory activity growth slowed in June as China's strict COVID-19 curbs took a toll on manufacturing demand. Workers at Chilean state-owned mining giant Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, launched a major strike on Wednesday to protest the closure of a smelter over environmental issues, though the government downplayed the impact on operations. The global nickel market deficit narrowed to 200 tonnes in April, compared with a shortfall a month earlier of 8,900 tonnes, data from the International Nickel Study Group showed.

It was a bearish week for agri commodities as well. Cotton saw sharp profit booking on fall in ICE cotton amid some dull trade in domestic market. As per CAI, Cotton acreage seen rising 12% to 135 lakh ha despite drop in North. For 2022/23, the production estimates are at 27.5 million bales higher by 12% y/y. Guar was in range due to lack of positive triggers. Prices are currently trading near 10-month lows on good monsoon expectations. Prices have corrected almost 19% from the 2022 peak despite good exports numbers. Turmeric and jeera prices augmented while Dhaniya prices slipped.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

COPPER……….. BAROMETER OF GREEN ECONOMY

Copper is often viewed as a barometer of economic demand given its use in a broad number of industrial applications. Copper is used in the production of electric vehicles, a global push for a green economy. Alongside the world’s growing commitment to efforts in sustainability and efficiencies in multiple industries, copper is leading the charge in finding new ways to do old things. Currently Copper prices slumped to their lowest level in over a year on increasing fears that rapid interest rate hikes would topple the global economy into recession as China grapples with COVID-19 lockdowns, hitting demand for metals.

Copper mine production

  • The world copper mine production increased by about 2.9% in the first four months of 2022, the International Copper Study Group reported in latest report.
  • COVID-19 related restrictions and workforce unavailability continued to constrain mine output at a number of operations at the beginning of 2022.
  • However, global mine output benefited from additional production at new or expanded mines and from a recovery from reduced output in the first months of 2021.
  • Production in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine producing country, was down by 7.4% in the first four months of 2022.
  • A number of mines in the country have been negatively impacted by absenteeism related to a high rate of Omicron infections, lower grades and reduced water supply due to a long drought.
  • Output in Peru, the world’s second largest copper mine producing country, increased by about 2.8%.
  • Despite the recovery, production in the first four months of 2022 was still 6.5% below that of 2019 (pre-COVID).
  • Indonesian output increased by about 40% principally as a consequence of the continued ramp-up of underground production at the Grasberg mine.

Refined copper production

  • The world refined copper production increased by about 3.4% in first four months of 2022.
  • Chinese refined production data indicates a rise of 3%.
  • Chilean total refined copper production (electrolytic and electrowinning) remained essentially unchanged.
  • Refined output was up by about 20% in the D.R. Congo due to the continued ramp-up of new or expanded plants
  • Japanese production was affected by operational issues and was 1% lower.

Global usage of copper

  • World apparent refined copper usage grew by about 2.2% in the first four months of 2022.
  • COVID-19 related lockdowns had a notable negative impact on the world economy and subsequently on key copper end-use sectors in all regions ex-China.
  • Although global demand started to recover in the 2nd half of 2020, refined usage in 2021 remained below pre-pandemic levels in some countries.
  • Chinese apparent usage grew by 3% with net refined copper imports declining by about 7%.
  • The world refined copper market showed a 3,000-tonne surplus in April, compared with a 22,000- tonne deficit in March, the International Copper Study Group said in its latest monthly bulletin.

Copper is essential to economic activity and the modern technological society. Additionally, infrastructure developments in major countries and the global trend towards cleaner energy and electric cars will continue to support copper demand in the longer term. However, continued COVID-19 restrictions in top consumer China, continuous military conflict and mounting fears that a global economic slowdown triggered by an aggressive tightening from major central banks would put global recovery at risk.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

The Indian Rupee headed for eight straight weekly losses against dollar and hit a new historic low of 78.38 after the ongoing cash dollar shortages in the banking system. This week RBI reversed its forward contracts which were taken during the pandemic period to manage the high rupee liquidity pushed down the dollar/rupee forward premium to 11 year low and eventually creates upward pressure in the USDINR spot as well. Going forward, next week we think the weakness in rupee will continue and the USDINR may rise towards 78.65-78.70 odd levels. From the majors, the euro weakened as German and French composite PMI for June came in weaker than expected but remained above 50. Euro zone PMI has yet to be pushed into contractionary territory despite the war in Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron acknowledged in his first public address since the weekend's elections that he’ll have to negotiate with rivals. He will have to diligently navigate a political arena that has become increasingly polarized, potentially holding talks with right-wing Marine Le Pen. We will remain bearish on EURINR while GBPINR is likely to stay in a weekly range between 95.30 - 97.00 as well.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (JUN)contract closed at 78.4900 on 23-June-22. The contract made its high of 78.5750 on 23-June-22 and a low of 78.1250 on 20-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 77.9910.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.03.One can buy at 77.90 for the target of 78.90 with the stop loss of 77.40.

GBP/INR (JUN) contract closed at 95.8675 on 23-May-22. The contract made its high of 96.5450 on 21-June-22 and a low of 95.5100 on 22-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 96.2700.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.53. One can sell at 96.50 for a target of 95.50 with the stop loss of 97.00.

News Flows of last week

03rd JUN Germany raises level of alarm over Russia gas disruption
02nd JUN UK Preliminary Services PMI steadies at 53.4 in June vs. 53.0
02nd JUN Euro zone Preliminary Manufacturing PMI misses estimates with 52.0 in June
01st JUN UK annualized inflation rises by 9.1% in May vs. 9.1%
01st JUN Fed's Powell says ongoing interest rate increases will be appropriate
01st JUN ECB's Rehn: It is very likely that September rate hike is bigger than 25 bps
31th MAY Japan PM Kishida: Exchange rate not the only consideration for monetary policy
31th MAY PBOC leaves one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.70%, as expected
30th MAY Bank of England official warns of higher inflation, if UK rate rises lag US

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (JUN) contract closed at 82.6175 on 23-June-22. The contract made its high of 83.1600 on 23-June-22 and a low of 82.3200 on 22-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 82.5100.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.43. One can buy at 82.25 for a target of 83.25 with the stop loss of 81.75.

JPY/INR (JUN) contract closed at 58.0950 on 23-June-22. The contract made its high of 58.3575 on 20- June-22 and a low of 57.6025 on 22-June-22 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.7145.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 38.81. One can sell at 58.50 for a target of 57.50 with the stop loss of 59.00.

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IPO

IPO NEWS

Noida-based India Exposition Mart gets Sebi nod for IPO

India Exposition Mart has received capital market regulator Sebi’s nod to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO). The Noida-based firm is a venue planner in India with the fourth-largest integrated exhibitions and conventions venue. The initial share sale comprises a fresh issue of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 450 crore, with a face value of Rs 5 each and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of up to 11,210,659 equity shares by existing shareholders. The company may consider a private placement of equity shares aggregating up to Rs 75 crore. If such pre-IPO placement is undertaken, the fresh issue size will reduce. The net proceeds from the fresh issue will be utilised towards funding capital expenditure requirements, expansion of existing infrastructure facilities, repayment/ prepayment of borrowings and general corporate purposes. India Exposition Mart provides technology-driven facilities and safety standards for worldwide business-to-business exhibits, conferences, congresses, product launches, and promotional events, among other things. Located in Greater Noida, it is stretched across 58 acres, with a building complex of 2,34,453.29 square metres. The venue planner has approximately 15 years of experience managing and organising exhibitions and trade fairs. It has hosted an average of 170 events in the last five fiscal years including the Indian Handicrafts and Gifts Fair, Elecrama, Auto Expo – The Motor Show, CPHI&P-MEC, and Print Pack. As of December 31, 2021, India Exposition Mart had an order book aggregating to Rs 1,21.52 crore from various exhibitions. The company faces intense competition across its market segments.

Casino player Delta's gaming unit Deltatech files for Rs 550 crore IPO

Deltatech Gaming formerly known as Gaussian Network Pvt Ltd, a wholly owned real money gaming subsidiary of casino operator Delta Corp, on June 16 filed a draft red herring prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for a Rs 550 crore initial public offering (IPO). The issue with a face value of Re 1 per equity share consists of a fresh issue of equity shares worth up to Rs. 300 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of Rs. 250 crore. The offer also includes a reservation for subscription by eligible employees and Delta shareholders. The Offer is being made through the book-building process, wherein not less than 75% of the Offer shall be available for allocation to Qualified Institutional Buyers, not more than 15% of the Offer shall be available for allocation to Non-Institutional Bidders and not more than 10% of the Offer shall be available for allocation to Retail Individual Bidders. The Gurugram-based company plans to use proceeds from its fresh issuance worth Rs. 150 crore towards organic growth, through marketing and business promotion activities, to attract new gamers and retain existing gamers, Rs. 50 crore to strengthen the technology infrastructure to develop new capabilities, maintain and manage its existing platform, and for general corporate purposes.

Stitched Textiles files for Rs 200 crore IPO with Sebi

Stitched Textiles has filed a draft red herring prospectus (DRHP) with capital markets regulator Sebi for its initial public offering (IPO). The textile company is eyeing to raise up to Rs 200 crore via its primary offering entirely by issuing equity shares, with a face value of Re 1 each. Ahmedabad-based Stitched Textile sells fashion products in an affordable pricing range under its flagship brand 'Barcelona.' The company is a renowned name in men's fashion wear and has a wide product range of shirts, trousers, T-shirts, denims, suits, blazers, trunks, vests, boxers, track pants and others. According to the company management, the net proceeds will be utilized towards expanding its retail business by opening up to 130 exclusive brand outlets. The company has allocated 75 per cent of equity shares to qualified institutional buyers, whereas 15 per cent of shares are reserved for HNI bidders. The remaining 10 per cent equity quota is fixed for the retail bidders. The company has allocated 75 per cent of equity shares to qualified institutional buyers, whereas 15 per cent of shares are reserved for HNI bidders. The remaining 10 per cent equity quota is fixed for the retail bidders. The company has appointed Finshore Management Services as the book-running lead manager to the issue, whereas Bigshare Services has been appointed as the registrar to the issue.

Inox Green Energy Services files fresh draft papers with Sebi for Rs 740-cr IPO

Inox Green Energy Services, a subsidiary of Inox Wind, has filed fresh preliminary papers with capital markets regulator Sebi to raise Rs 740 crore through an Initial Public Offering (IPO). The IPO comprises fresh issuance of equity shares worth Rs 370 crore and an offer-for-sale of equity stocks aggregating to Rs 370 crore by promoter Inox Wind, according to the the Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP). Besides, the company may consider a pre-IPO placement. If such placement is completed, the fresh issue size will be reduced. Proceeds from the fresh issue will be used for payment of debt and general corporate purposes. Inox Green Energy Services is engaged in the business of providing long term Operation and Maintenance (O&M) services for wind farm projects, specifically for Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs) and the common infrastructure facilities on the wind farm, which support the evacuation of power from such WTGs. Earlier, the company had filed the DRHP for its proposed IPO in February with the Sebi. However, the draft offer documents for the IPO were withdrawn in late April without disclosing any reason.

JK Files submits IPO papers with Sebi to raise Rs 500-600 crore

JK Files and Engineering, a part of the Raymond Group, is eyeing a turnover of ₹1,500 crore in the next few years on expectations of robust demand for precision automotive components. Having posted more than 50% growth in FY22 with a turnover of ₹812 crore, the auto-parts arm now makes up nearly an eighth of the consolidated revenues at the Raymond Group. This was the second year of strong double-digit growth, something the company believes will endure. JK Files has asset turnover of three times, translating into incremental revenue of around ₹450 crore. The company is soon set to hit the IPO route. According to the draft red herring prospectus filed with the market regulator, the company has an installed capacity of 8.2 million ring gears at the end of June 2021. The company plans to raise around ₹500-600 crore that would primarily be used to bring down debt of its parent company Raymond.

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Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 23/06/2022
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
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