Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10-13
  • Currency 14
  • IPO 15
  • FD Monitor 16
  • Mutual Fund 17-18

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by markets across the globe continued to decline due to rising I bond yields causing investors to question the sky-high valuations of tech stocks in particular. The 10-year bond yields climbed higher on mounting expectations of stronger economic growth and faster inflation after the pandemic ends. Meanwhile, Powell said that he would keep credit flowing until Americans are back to work, rebutting investors who have openly doubted he can stick to that promise once the pandemic passes. Actually, Markets were expecting him to signal more bond purchases to hold down longer-term interest rates. Oil prices spiked to their highest in over a year as OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April, after deciding that the demand recovery from the pandemic remained fragile.

Back home, market continued to see volatile movements owing to uncertainty in global markets over inflation and consequent rise in bond yields. The Indian economy seems to be moving on the path of faster recovery with key indicators on consumption and investment showing a sharp slowdown in contraction in January, 2021. Meanwhile, the Indian economy emerged out of technical recession in OctoberDecember 2020 and grew 0.4 per cent with improvement in manufacturing, construction and agriculture. However, former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has said that it might take longer to become a USD 5 trillion economy due to the coronavirus pandemic-induced disruptions. The inflation target for the Reserve Bank of India's MPC for the next five years starting April is likely to be notified around mid-March. Investors would continue to track global cues particularly the bond yields for any directional move. Besides, movement of currency, inflow and out flow of foreign fund, macroeconomic data and crude oil prices will continue to dictate the trend of the market going forward.

On the commodity market front, CRB gradually moved higher, however the upside was capped by fall in base metals and bullion counter. The dollar was up but the safehaven asset remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields continued to fall. Base metals saw sharp fall last week due to resumption of mines amid unlock of long positions. Nickel fell the most. This week we may see consolidation in this counter. Gold slumped to a near nine-month low on Friday and witnessed continuous three-week decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his view on rising yields that pushed up the dollar and bond yields. Gold and silver may see consolidation in the range of 43000-46000 and 63000-68000 respectively. Oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic. GDP of Euro Area, UK and Italy, Inflation Rate of Mexico and China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of US, BoC Interest Rate Decision, New Yuan Loans of China, ECB Interest Rate Decision and ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Rate of Canada etc. many important triggers for commodities this week.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS

DOMESTIC
Economy
  • According to the survey results from IHS Markit showed, India's service sector activity expanded at a faster rate in February. The IHS Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 55.3 in February from 52.8 in January. Economists had forecast a score of 53.0. Any reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Unichem Laboratories has received ANDA approval for its Guanfacine Tablets, USP 1 mg and 2 mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of TENEX® (Guanfacine) Tablets 1 mg and 2 mg of Promius Pharma LLC.
Telecom
  • Tejas Networks announced that GigNet, a leading digital infrastructure company in Mexico, has selected the company's optical networking and broadband access products for their state-of-the-art, high-capacity fiber optic network expansion in the Cancun region of Mexico.
  • RailTel Corporation of India (the Company) has received an Advance Purchase Order amounting to Rs. 25.46 crores per annum (plus GST) from Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) for commissioning of the Point-to-Point Links.
Construction
  • Dilip Buildcon has received letter of acceptance National Highways Authority for two hybrid annuity projects 'Bangalore-Chennai Expressway' under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Karnataka, Phase I (Package I & II) worth Rs 2439 crore.
  • NBCC (India) has executed a MoU with Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (RINL) for redevelopment and monetization of 22.19 acres of Land Parcels at Maddilapalem, Visakhapatnam on 26 February 2021 on self sustainable model.
  • Ircon International has been awarded the work for replacement of mechanical signaling at various locations at Moradabad at the expected completion cost of Rs.187.80 crore. The tenure for execution of the works is 24 months. This work has been awarded on competitive bidding basis among PSUs by the Northern Railways, Ministry of Railways.
Capital Goods
  • Isgec Heavy Engineering has secured an order for Waste Heat Recovery Boilers from the Cement industry and this time the capacity of the boilers will make them the largest in the world. The order has been received from Shree Cement, one ofthe largest cement manufacturing companies in India.
Information Technology
  • Tata Consultancy Services has expanded its strategic partnership with VodafoneZiggo B.V. Netherlands to help the latter speed up its fixed fiber network roll out, enabling superior connectivity for subscribers and faster launch of new services.
Cables
  • Finolex Cables announced the launch of new range of decorative fans and lighting products to strengthen its FMEG portfolio. These exclusive fans have been introduced to time the approaching summer season. The stylish range includes FLEENOR, GLADIATOR NXG & ALESSANDRA NXG ceiling fans. Their attractive looks, along with aerodynamic design makes them a visual treat. Powered by a powerful Copper motor these Hi speed fans deliver air to every corner of the room.

TREND SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
  • US factory orders surged up by 2.6 percent after jumping by an upwardly revised 1.6 percent in December. Economists had expected factory orders to advance by 2.1 percent compared to the 1.1 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims inched up to 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 736,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 750,000 from the 730,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • US labor productivity tumbled by 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 4.8 percent nosedive. Economists had expected the slump in productivity to be revised to 4.7 percent.
  • Eurozone retail sales declined more than expected in January as strict restrictions to contain the spread of the Covid-19 dampened demand for non-food products. Another official report showed that the jobless rate in the currency bloc remained unchanged in January.
  • The euro area jobless rate remained unchanged in January. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.1 percent and up from 7.4 percent in the same period last year. The rate was forecast to rise to 8.3 percent.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITY

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

NTPC LIMITED
CMP: 108.75
Target Price: 125
Upside: 15%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 114.75/74.00
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 105451.24
  • EPS (Rs.) 12.96
  • P/E Ratio (times) 8.39
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.86
  • Dividend Yield (%) 2.96
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • NTPC is a Maharatna company operating in the power generation business. The principal business activity of the firm is electric power generation through coal based thermal power plants. It also engages in the business of generation of electricity from hydro and renewable energy sources. As of 31 December 2020, the Government of India held 51.10% stake held in NTPC.
  • The gross generation of NTPC in Q3 FY21 was 65.42 Billion units as against 61.21 Billion units during the corresponding period of previous year registering an increase of 6.87%. For 9M FY21 gross generation was 193.28 Billion units as against 191.35 Billion units during the corresponding period of previous year.
  • During Q3FY21, the company's Plant Load Factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation of coal-based projects was 64.31 per cent in the quarter under review as compared to 63.48 per cent in the same period a year ago.
  • The company has added 2800 mw of capacity and it is confident of adding 5074 mw of new capacity by the end of current fiscal and another about 6000 mw of capacity in the next fiscal.
  • The company has increased the dividend pay outs and recently concluded a buyback, a strong signal to its shareholders that the company will use opportunity to deploy cash intelligently.
  • NTPC has continued to reported strong operational numbers in Q3FY21 on the back of power demand recovery. On a consolidated basis, NTPC's net profit rose nearly 16%to Rs.3,876.36 crore for the December quarter, mainly due to higher revenues. Its consolidated net profit was at Rs.3,351.28 crore in the quarter ended on December 31, 2019.

Risk

  • Unfavourable regulatory developments
  • Delay in execution

Valuation

The management of the company has provided robust guidance for growth in regulated equity, which makes optimistic about strong earnings growth for NTPC in the next couple of years. The management believes receivables of Rs. 16,720 crore currently from discoms should reduce with liquidity infusion into discoms under the power sector relief package. The decline in receivables from discoms would strengthen its balance sheet. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.125 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/E of 8.39x and FY22 EPS of Rs.14.86

P/E Chart

CANARA BANK LIMITED
CMP: 159.55
Target Price: 192
Upside: 20%
VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 174.40/73.85
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 26273.71
  • EPS (Rs.) 0.00
  • P/E Ratio (times) 0.00
  • P/B Ratio (times) 0.49
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Global business of the bank rose at improved pace of 7% yoy at Rs 1640582 crore at end December 2020. Deposits grew 8% yoy to Rs 1573151 crore, while the advances growth also moved up 6% at Rs 667561 crore at end December 2020. The credit-deposit ratio of the bank rose to 68.6% from 68.4% a quarter ago and remained lowerfrom 69.9% a year ago.
  • NII increased 14.58% yoy to Rs 6081 crore in Q3FY2021. The bank has reported 3% decline in the interest earned at Rs 17206.34 crore, while interest expenses declined 10% to Rs 11125.46 crore.
  • Domestic advances of the bank increased 8% to Rs 644826 crore, domestic deposits moved up 9% to Rs 928325 crore at end December 2020. The bank has exhibited strong growth in retail advances at 9% to Rs 113835 crore, while MSME credit jumped 6% to Rs 113718 crore and agriculture loans improved 11% to Rs 150652 crore. The bank has also shown growth in corporate advance at 2% to Rs 289356 crore end December 2020.
  • The bank has improved asset quality with decline in fresh slippages of loans. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 49,788.61 crore as on 31 December 2020 as against Rs 53,437.92 crore as on 30 September 2020 and Rs 36,644.97 crore as on 31 December 2019. Gross non-performing assets (NPA) ratio came down to 7.46%, compared to 8.23% in the previous quarter. Similarly, net NPA ratio came down to 2.64% from 3.42% in the previous quarter.
  • The provision coverage ratio improved in the December quarter to 84.90%, compared to 70.97% in the year-ago period. CRAR stood at 13.69% as at Sep 2020.
  • The bank has recorded net profit of Rs 696 crore for the merged entity of Canara Bank and Syndicate Bank for the quarter ended December 2020, showing 9% decline from comparable figure of Rs 764 crore for merged entity in Q3FY2020. The merged entity has posted strong 15% growth in the net interest income, while non-interest income has surged 63%.

Risk

  • Unidentified Asset Slippages. (Non-Identified NPA’s)
  • Regulatory Provisioning on assets and Corporate Governance issue

Valuation

The management has guided for focus on NPA management with strategic actions on strengthening credit monitoring, contain fresh slippages and strengthen recovery efforts. The bank remains cautiously optimistic in terms of the asset quality outlook going ahead in the current year. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.192 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BVx of 0.53x and FY22BVPS (Book Value per Share) of Rs.361.33.

P/E Chart

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY

Beat the street - Technical Analysis

Colgate Palmolive (India) Limited (COLPAL)

The stock closed at Rs 1633.90 on 05th March, 2021. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1065 on 19th March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1676 on 11th January, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1495.65.

As we can see on charts that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of rising wedge on weekly charts. Moreover, stock has consolidated in narrow range and formed a “Bullish Pennant” pattern, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock has given the breakout of same by registering gains over 3% and also has managed to close above the breakout levels. So buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1610-1615 levels for the upside target of 1750-1780 levels with SL below 1560.

SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (SBILIFE)

The stock closed at Rs 903.55 on 05th March, 2021. It made a 52-week low of Rs 519.40 on 19th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 954.50 on 08th January, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 850.25.

Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, stock is forming a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly chart which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock tried to give the breakout of same but could not hold high levels due to correction in broader indices but managed to close in green with over 4% gains. So, more upside is expected from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 890-895 levels for the upside target of 970-990 levels with SL below 860.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

It was quite a volatile week for Indian markets as tug of war among bulls and bears kept markets on a roller coaster ride. Nifty indices, however, closed below the key psychological level of 15000 as profit booking in metal counter along with financials and pharma space kept markets under pressure in later part of the week. From the derivative front, put writers at 15000 strike are seen unwinding their positions while call writers added hefty open interest in 15000 & 15100 strikes. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 23.58% while that for put options closed at 25.12%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 24.15%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.74 indicates more puts writing than calls. For upcoming sessions, we believe that tug of war among bulls and bears will likely to keep markets on volatile ground and bias is likely to remain in favour of bears as far nifty is holding below 15100 levels. On downside, 14800 would act as immediate support for Nifty below which further selling pressure can mount which can drag Nifty towards 14600 levels as well.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 4th March, 2021

**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITY

OUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to maintain its uptrend and trade rangebound within 8600-9600 levels. The increase in demand for turmeric during the COVID-19 pandemic has helped Indian farmers mitigate the effects of low output in recent months. The market is worried about the drastic fall in output, from 25 quintal per acre to 15 quintal, due to heavy rains. In Nizamabad around 50,000 acres has been given over to turmeric cultivation. But this year it shrank to 36,000 acres, as farmers are discouraged by poor returns for four consecutive years. The increase in consumption of the yellow spice as an antioxidant is said to be one of the factors that contributed to the considerable increase in exports and prices. On the spot, the market participants do not see rising prices being a deterrent as demand from local buyers, stockists or even exporters. They add that demand is here to stay until Holi and Ramadan and prices can easily drive higher.Jeera futures (Apr) is expected to trade range-bound within 13500-14500 with an upside bias.Traders see steady demand from local stockists, spice millers and exporters. They also note that the overall demand scenario is good. In Rajkot itself, jeera rates have gained Rs 85-95/20Kgs so far in the past week. Spot rates were steady at Unjhamandi, amid strong festive demand despite rising arrivals. Dhaniya futures (Apr) may witness some correction towards 6700- 6600 levels. New coriander prices continue to face pressure due to cautious buying by domestic traders. Market is also focusing on purchases being made by the South Indian millers and the exporters. Lackluster buying by stockists is weighing on the spice.

BULLIONS

Bullion prices headed for a third straight weekly decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his view on rising yields that pushed up the dollar and bond yields. Powell repeated his pledge to keep credit loose and said although the rise in yields was "notable", he did not consider it a "disorderly" move. Clearly, Powell wasn't dovish enough for markets overnight and, in some ways, green-lighted higher U.S. yields by saying he was comfortable with that. The U.S. 10-year yields held above 1.5%, while the dollar surged to three-month highs. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying bullion. Markets are also starting to take into account that with the ramp-up in vaccines, another U.S. fiscal package and increasing inflation expectations, the Fed might consider tightening sooner than they expected. The WGC said that the amount of gold held by ETF's fell by 84.7 tonnes worth $4.6 billion in February. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust GLD fell to the lowest since May. Silver fell to $25.21 an ounce and was down 5% for the week, its worst since late-November. On the technical front, the Gold price may continue to trade with bearish bias where short term support holds near 43770 breaks and sustain below it may extend the bearish rally till 42200 levels whereas short term resistance is seen near 45800. Ahead in this week, we may continue to witness huge volatility and gold may trade with bearish bias and range would be 42200-45800 levels whereas, Silver may trade in the range of 62000-67180 levels. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1630-$1720 levels and Silver may trade in the range of $23.60-$26.90 levels.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

Soybean futures(Apr) is expected to hold support near 4800 levels and maintain its uptrend as the overall fundamentals are string due to mismatch of demand-supply in the international market. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said it could cut its harvest forecast for 2020/21 soy production in Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter, if it does not rain sufficiently in key producing areas over the weeks ahead. Record U.S. soybean crushings and exports are already projected to shrink U.S. soybean stocks to a mere 9-1/2 day supply ahead of the next North American harvest. The market participants would also be watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture will update its estimates on global supplies in a monthly report due on Tuesday. Soy oil futures (Apr) is looking bullish and can reach 1180-1190 levels, while CPO futures (Mar) may trade higher towards 1070-1080 levels taking bullish cues from the international market. On CBOT, US soybean oil has shown a break out and clocked a 3-year high. The USDA weekly export sales numbers are adding optimism among the market participants. The latest data showed that net sales of 5,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The market participants will keep a close watch on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board February supply and demand data is scheduled to release on March 10.The trend of mustard futures (Apr) is bearish and going ahead we can see a downside of 5200-5100 levels. The deterrent factor is the rising arrivals as the farmers are bringing their crop finding prices very attractive. Also, mustard oil is witnessing downfall in prices due to heavy selling and limited demand.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude Oil prices extending gains, after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Oil rallied more than 4% hitting its highest in over a year, after OPEC and its allies agreed to keep production unchanged, reasoning that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still fragile. The group’s leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and decide in coming months when to gradually phase it out. Russia was allowed to raise output by 130,000 bpd in April and Kazakhstan by another 20,000 bpd. Russia aside, the biggest winner of an OPEC+ rollover is the U.S. With such price levels, which are now boosted even more after the news of a possible rollover consensus, the U.S. can comfortably increase production, even from costly break-even projects. Ahead in this week crude price may witness huge volatility and continue to trade with bullish bias within the range of 4530-5040 levels, where buying near support would be the strategy. Natural gas prices whipsawed and tumbled over 2%, following a smaller than expected draw in natural gas inventories. The weather is expected to be colder than normal in the US’s western portion over the next 2-weeks but warmer than normal in the midwest and the east coast. The calendar is now moving into the end of the withdrawal season, and prices will likely remain range-bound unless there is another disruption or a cold spell. Ahead in this week, we may expect prices may trade within a range where support is seen near 185 levels and resistance is seen near 210 levels.

OTHER COMMODITIES

Cotton futures (Apr) will probably take support around 21750 levels and the upside may get extended towards 22500 levels. The reasons are firstly, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised upwards the global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in the previous year. Secondly, cotton exports from India are likely to rise 50 per cent this year to 75 lakh bales in the 2020-21 crop year beginning October with revival in global demand from China and Bangladesh in the last one month. Guar seed (Apr) may find support near 3800 levels and rise till 3950-4000 levels, while guar gum (Apr) is expected to trade with a positive bias in the range of 6000-6300 levels. These counters are taking support from bullish trend oil prices in the international market. Caution about the pandemic took the upper hand Thursday at a meeting of the OPEC oil cartel and allied countries, as they left most of their production cuts in place amid worry that coronavirus restrictions could still undermine recovering demand for crude. The U.S. contract, which had plunged below zero last year as the pandemic restrictions on businesses devastated demand for energy, jumped about 5% on the day to over $64 a barrel. Chana futures (Apr) is looking bullish for this week as it can test 5200-5250 levels and hence any dip can be considered as a buying opportunity. The sentiments are firm demand amid weak stocks of pulses, and bullish tone in dollar chana and strong demand ahead of Holi festival. On the spot, chana prices have soared amid increasing demand from Horeca segment and short fall in arrivals of fresh crops reportedly delayed in the markets of producing areas of Madhya Pradesh.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as soaring US Treasury bond yields and dollar index may weigh on counter. Copper can move towards 660 levels and facing resistance near 715 levels. Signs of weakening demand in top consumer China and rising mine supply from top copper producers in South America are weighing on prices. China’s factory activity growth eased in February and missed market expectation. Copper imports in China are likely to ease as traders pick up cheaper domestic metal after price rise. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 1.587 million tonnes in 2020, up 11.8% from 2019, the central bank’s statistics showed. Zinc may trade in the range of 205-220. Lead can trade in the range of 160-170 levels. Zinc treatment charges that miners pay to smelters to refine concentrate are expected to fall to $200 a tonne for 2021 from $300 a year ago due to tight mine supply. As per International Zinc Association, annual demand for zinc in batteries was only 600 tonnes in 2020 but that figure is projected to rise to 77,500 tonnes in 2030. Nickel may trade with sideways to bearish bias in the range of 1150-1250 levels. China's Tsingshan Holding Group, a nickel and stainless steel giant, will provide 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte to Huayou Cobalt and battery materials maker CNGR Advanced Material. One of the major nickel producing mine’s production at Russia which was on a halt due to water shortage, can restart production. Aluminum may trade in the range of 168-178 levels. The US Commerce Department issued final anti-dumping duties on common alloy aluminum sheet from 18 countries investigated, including up to 242.8% on imports from Germany.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 672.85 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 737.00 on 25th Feb’2021 and a low of Rs. 585.70 on 02nd Jan’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 677.74. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.507.

One can sell near Rs. 688 for a target of Rs. 660 with the stop loss of Rs. 702.

LEAD MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 163.40 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 174.70 on 25th Feb’2021 and a low of Rs. 157.70 on 22nd Jan’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 167.31. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.974.

One can sell near Rs. 167 for a target of Rs. 160 with the stop loss of Rs. 171.

CHANANCDEX (APR) contract was closed at Rs. 5012.00 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 5090.00 on 30th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs. 4353.00 on 28th Dec’2020. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4815.26. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.326.

One can buy near Rs. 5020 for a target of Rs. 5300 with the stop loss of Rs 4880.

11

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • The Fed chief reiterated that the central bank would be "patient" before changing policy even as it saw inflation pick up in what it expects would be a transitory fashion.
  • OPEC and its oil-producing allies said the group would keep production largely steady through April. Saudi Arabia also said that it would extend its one million barrels per day voluntary production cut into April.
  • Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of February likely rose for a second straight month to touch 1.42 million tonnes, as production picked up for the first time in five months, a Reuters survey showed.
  • Export sales of soybeans for 2021/22 sit at a 7-year high and are progressing at a solid pace. Total sales are 4.86 mmt (179 mln bu).
  • The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 85,855 tonnes of cobalt in 2020, up 10% from 2019, the central bank said, with copper production also jumping 11.8% year-on-year.
  • International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised upwards the global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in the previous year.
  • The Indian government announced import quota of 4 lakh tonnes for urad for 2021-22 as local prices of whole urad (black matpe) have been rising.
  • Norilsk Nickel expects to stabilize flooding issues at two of its mines this week.
  • Gold ETF liquidation resumed in Feb, with outflows at 66t, the largest monthly selling since Dec'16.
  • The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.5, the lowest since April, from 52.0 in January but remained above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

CRB gradually moved higher, however the upside was capped by fall in base metals and bullion counter. The dollar was up but the safe-haven asset remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields continued to rise. This also restored calm to global markets and turned investors towards riskier assets. It was a bearish week for bullions. Gold futures declined, as gains in Treasury bond yields prompted prices to mark their lowest settlement in nearly nine months. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained around 1.5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Gold ETF liquidation resumed in Feb, with outflows at 66t, the largest monthly selling since Dec'16. The bulk of selling came from North American funds. YTD, ETF investors liquidated nearly 44t, a sharp contrast to a net addition of 85t during the first two months of 2020.On MCX, it broke the psychological levels of 45000. Silver too traded weak. Nickel surprised the market with its sharp fall. It saw a fall of more than 10% on the news that Norilsk Nickel expects to stabilize flooding issues at two of its mines next week. Secondly, data showed that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for downstream nickel industries, including stainless steel, electroplating, alloy and battery, stood at 46.93 in February, down 3.68 points from January. On SHFE, nickel contract open interests fell 1,341 lots to 101,473 lots. Rest of the metals also nosedived on moving up bond yield and dollar index. Oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic, overshadowed a U.S. government report showing a humongous build in crude stocks for last to last week. However, the rally looked tired from the higher side.

Oil seeds and edible oil futures saw correction from the upside on weak international market. Soyabean moved down tracking bearish sentiments coming from the international market. CBOT US soybean futures edged lower, consolidating after strong gains as traders weighed adverse crop weather in South America against forecasts for record Brazilian output and signs of a lull in Chinese demand. Steep fall was noticed in spot Mustard seed, oil and oil cake prices in producing states including Rajasthan. Market sentiments dampened as the oil seed arrival reached to 7 lakh bags in across the country. Heavy arrival and slower demand caused for decline in prices. CPO futures saw correction after a five-week nonstop rally. Cotton futures traded sideways as a dip in equity and grain markets spilled over to the natural fiber. Guar was weak on poor demand in churi and korma.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Castor seed

Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46% oil recovery. Castor oil is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India. India is the biggest exporter of castor oil holding about 80% share of the international trade in this commodity followed by China & Brazil. Castor oil is primarily used in manufacturing plastics, lubricants, cosmetics, candles, and painting material. Castor oil and its derivatives are also used in many medical formulations.

Supply Scenario

  • Castor seed production in India is estimated to be 19.02 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 against last year’s estimate of 19.53 lakh tonnes.
  • Total area under castor seed cultivation in India for the year 2020-21 is estimated tobe 8,26,120 hectares as per the government’s estimates against 9,73,190 hectares in 2019-20, which has declined by 15% compared to the previous year.
  • India’s average castor seed productivity for the year 2020-21 is estimated to be 2303Kg/Ha as compared to 2007 Kg/Ha last year. It is based on farmer’s response about their yield expectation on present crop conditions.
  • Total area under castor in Gujarat for the year 2020-21 is taken to be 6,38,000 hectaresas perthe government’s estimates, againstlast year’s estimate of 7,40,600 hectares, which has declined by about 14% as compared to the previous year.
  • Total castor seed production in Gujarat is estimated to be 16.29 lakh tons in 2020-21compared to 16.59 lakh tons last year. The fall in acreages is compensated by an increase in expected yield.
  • Total acreage under castor in Rajasthan forthe year 2020-21 is taken to be 1,25,700 hectares as per the government’s estimates against last year’s estimate of 1,54,240 hectares, which has declined by 18.5% compared to the previous season.
  • Total castor seed production in the state is estimated to be 2.36 lakh tons in 2020-21, a decline by 4% from last years’ estimate of 2.46 lakh tons.

Demand Scenario

  • The country exports about 90 percent of the oil globally with China, the world's largest importer of castor oil, accounts for 70% of exports from India.
  • According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), India’s castor oil exports are estimated to have increased to a four-year high of 6.5 lakh tonnesin 2020 with China buying 50 percent of it to build inventory.
  • According to SEA data, India’s castor oil exports were 5.45 lakh tonnes in 2019, 5.97 lakh tonnes in 2018 and 6.28 lakh tonnes in 2017. Castor oil shipments have annually been fetching about ₹5,500 crore.
  • While castor oil exports increased last year, castor meal shipments dropped to 3.16 lakh tonnes duringApril-December last year compared with 4.79 lakh tonnes the previous year. Meal exports showed a rising trend inDecember,though.
  • The Netherlands, France, the US and Japan are other buyers of castor oil from India, though all of them have purchased below one lakh tonnes only.
  • Lower prices may improve domestic consumption of castor oil. Lower inventory of castor oil with USA& Europe may attract demand also.

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

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CURRENCY

Currency Table

Market Stance

Indian rupee ended the choppiest week after last week turmoil. A sudden rise in US bond yields notably 10 year yield surpassed 1.55% for the first time in a year after Jay Powell, Fed’s Chair vowed to keep monetary policy steady even as the economy improves and inflation begins to rise supported dollar versus rupee and other currencies as well. Accordingly Powell said the central bank expected to be “patient” in withdrawing support for the recovery, given that the labour market remained far from the central bank’s goal of full employment and had made little progress in recent months. From the majors, the UK budget announcement indicated to focus on stimulus for the economy, and not address the record budget deficit for another two years. The UK pound likely to remains within a tight 1.3850- 1.40 trading range in for next week. However the euro is getting weaker in the wake of stronger dollar. Additionally EZ retail sales were down 5.9% in January, much worse than both the previous months +1.8% and expectations of -1.4% which triggered the eurusd lower.

Technical Recommendation

USD/INR (MAR) contract closed at 72.9875 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 74.0950 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 72.8125 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage oftheUSD/INR is currently at 73.2724.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.33. One can buy at 72.90 for the target of 73.90 with the stop loss of 72.40.

GBP/INR (MAR) GBP/INR (MAR) contract closed at 101.7000 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 103.4300 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 101.6500 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 101.7200.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.83. One can buy at 101.50 for a target of 102.50 with the stop loss of 101.00.

News Flows of last week

05th MAR Beijing targets 6% GDP growth after reining in coronavirus
04th MAR US suspends tariffs on UK exports in Airbus-Boeing trade dispute
04nd MAR Powell sends dovish message that leaves bond market disappointed
02nd MAR Rishi Sunak delivers spend now, tax later Budget to kickstart UK economy
02nd MAR Budget to give £20bn extension to UK Covid support until September
02nd MAR Covid vaccines show few serious side-effects after millions of jabs
02nd MAR Australia’s treasurer warns global stimulus threatens financial stability
01st MAR Growth in UK household savings raises hopes of recovery boost
01st MAR Italy and Spain enjoy manufacturing bounce back as demand rises

Economic gauge for the next week

EUR/INR (MAR) contract closed at 87.9625 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 89.6600 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 87.8700 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe EUR/INR is currently at 88.6838.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.06. One can sell at 87.80 for a target of 86.80 with the stop loss of 88.30.

JPY/INR (MAR) contract closed at 68.0525 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 69.5200 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 68.0225 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage ofthe JPY/INR is currently at 69.2711.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.50. One can sell at 68.10 for a target of 67.10 with the stop loss of 68.60.

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IPO

EASY TRIP PLANNERS LIMITED

SMC Ranking

(3/5)

Issue Highlights

Issue Composition
In shares

Objects of the Issue

The objects of the Offer are to achieve the benefits of listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges and for the sale of up to [●] Equity Shares by the Promoter Selling Shareholders aggregating up to Rs.5,100 million.

Book Running Lead Manager
  • Axis Capital Limited
  • JM Financial Limited
Name of the Registrar
  • KFin Technologies Private Limited

Valuation

Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.187, EPS and P/E of estimated annualised FY2021 are Rs.3.75 and 49.89 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 186, P/E multiple is 49.62. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.187, book value and P/B of estimated annualised FY21 are Rs. 13.10and 14.28multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 186 P/B multiple is 214.20. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital.

About the Company

Incorporated in 2008, Easy Trip Planners Ltd is the second largest online travel agency in India in terms of gross revenue. Easy Trip offers a range of online traveling services through its website and Ease My Trip android and iOS mobile app. As of November 2019, the firm has served customers with more than 400 domestic and international airlines, and 1,096,400 hotels. As of March 2019, it had 49,494 registered travel agents across major cities of India

Strength

One of the leading online travel agencies in India with a customer focused approach, including the option of no-convenience fee: As of December 31, 2020, the company provided its customers with access to more than 400 international and domestic airlines, more than 1,096,400 hotels in India and international jurisdictions, almost all the railway stations in India as well as bus tickets and taxi rentals for major cities in India. It has been providing customers with the option of no-convenience fee, such that customers are not required to pay any service fee in instances where there are no alternate discounts or promotion coupon being availed.

Consistent track record of financial and operational performance with lean and cost efficient operations: The company experienced significant revenue growth from sale of airline tickets between Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019, of 35.22% and 35% for GoAir and SpiceJet, respectively. It believes that the consistent growth in its business is attributable to its technology driven operations and low operational costs resulting in comparatively higher operating margins.

Wide distribution network supported by a hybrid platform: The Company’s three distinct distribution channels, namely B2C, B2E and B2B2C channels provide it with a diversified customer base and wide distribution network. These channels enable the company to provide end-to-end travel solutions for passengers traveling domestically, as well as traveling to and from international destinations.

Well-recognized brand with a targeted marketing strategy: The company believes that its leading market position and operational history have led to recognition of the ‘EaseMyTrip’ brand in India, enabling it to target new customers and provide better leverage when contracting with airlines and hotel suppliers.

Strategy

Capitalize on travel industry growth opportunities: The company believes that there are significant opportunities for the company to further expand its customer base and, at the same time, increase its market share in India.

Focus on expanding hotel and holiday packages, and railway ticketing operations: As of December 31, 2020, it has partnered with 23 APIs for hotels, which has increased its hotel suppliers network and also provided access to more international hotels on a real time basis. Accordingly, in order to capitalize on such growth opportunities, it intends to focus on direct tie-ups with hotels and hotel suppliers by complementing its existing technology platforms, which it believes would help it reduce its costs associated with confirmation of reservations.

Leverage its existing travel agent network in Tier II and Tier III cities and focus on corporate business to grow its business: The company believes a considerable number of customers in India, especially from Tier II and Tier III cities, still utilize and are expected to continue to utilize the services of traditional travel agents. It intends to strengthen its presence among corporates by leveraging its existing travel agent network and also by integrating its travel software with its corporate customers IT systems to act a ‘one-stop’ solution for all of their travel requirements.

Risk Factor
  • The company is dependent on its airline ticketing business, which generates a significant percentage of its revenues and is derived from a small number of airline suppliers in India.
  • The travel industry for India and India-related travel is intensely competitive, and it may not be able to effectively compete in the future.
Outlook

Easy Trip Planners Ltd. (ETPL) is well known for its online tour web portal EaseMyTrip.com. and EaseMyTrip.in. According to the management, it follows the most advanced and latest technology including mobile applications for its operations that helps it for better cost controls and higher yields. The company is operating an asset-light model of business with negligible borrowings. Investors may consider investing in this IPO with a long term perspective.

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FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

16
17

MUTUAL FUND

Performance Charts

EQUITY (Diversified)

TAX FUND

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Note:Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option . The above mentioned data is on the basis of 04/03/2021
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 6%
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
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