In the past weak, global stock markets experienced volatile trading as investors closely I monitored any signs of a potential escalation in the Middle East conflict while analyzing Jerome Powell's remarks for insights into the policy outlook. According to Powell, inflation remains too high, and lower economic growth may be necessary to bring it down. Although Powell did not commit to a specific rate hike timeline during his speaking engagement, the market seems to believe the central bank will not raise rates in November. The 10-year Treasury yield reached a new high, surpassing 4.9% for the first time since 2007, and is approaching the 5% mark. European stock markets also witnessed turbulent movements due to disappointing corporate earnings, concerns about the Middle East conflict and uncertainty surrounding interest rates. In Japan, the headline inflation rate for September was 3%, slightly down from the 3.2% rate in August. However, this marks the 18th consecutive month that inflation has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. In addition, Japan's exports increased by 4.3% in September compared to the previous year, as reported by the Ministry of Finance (MOF), marking the first increase in three months. Meanwhile, China maintained its benchmark loan rates for October, following signs of stabilization in the world's second-largest economy after recent policy support measures.
Back at home, the domestic markets faced selling pressure due to weak global sentiments and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The sudden rise in tension has caused instability in energy prices. Initial Q2 earnings disappointments in the IT and financial sectors further weakened market sentiment. The Israel-Hamas conflict is keeping investors on edge, particularly after an explosion at Gaza's Al-Ahli al-Arabi hospital. Investors will closely watch corporate earnings for further guidance.
In the commodity markets, the heightened conflict between Israel and Hamas resulted in an increased "war premium" in both the crude oil and bullion markets. As a result, the CRB index closed above the 324 mark. The Dollar Index managed to recover from its weekly losses as investors returned to safe-haven assets following a decline in the equity market. The recent surge in gold prices was due to the intensifying conflict between Israel and Hamas, which increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's recovery, the rally in gold continued. If the war escalates further, buying is expected to continue in the bullion market, and vice versa. Gold and silver are likely to trade in a wide range of 58,000-62,000 and 70,000-74,500, respectively. Crude oil may see further upside as freight costs rise, and it may trade in a range of 7,200-7,600 level. This week, there is a substantial amount of data and events scheduled, which could have an impact on commodity prices. These include GfK Consumer Confidence, IFO Business Climate Index, and HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI in Germany; Unemployment Rate in the UK; Inflation Rate in Australia and France; BoC and ECB Interest Rate Decisions; Durable Goods Orders, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, PCI Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, and GDP in the U.S.; and the ECB Press Conference.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
According to the management of the company, despite a challenging external environment, in India, the company continued to stay course on its strategy of volume-driven category development and delivered double-digit volume growth of 10% during June quarter. The company would remain focused on driving volume-led growth along with healthy investments in its brands and improvement in profitability. It has strong balance sheet and the company is in journey to reduce wasted cost and are deploying this to drive profitable and sustainable volume growth across its portfolio through category development. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1159 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 1 year avg. P/E of 58.01x and FY24 EPS of Rs.19.98.
JSPL has an established track record in successful commissioning of greenfield/brownfield capacities in steel and power segments as well as in running its plants at healthy capacity utilization. The company is currently expanding continuously, and by the end of the next year, it expects to double the capacity of Angul facility in Odisha. According to the management, at any point of time its debt cannot exceed 1.5 times its EBITDA. The company is currently at a very low debt level, so there is a lot of internal accrual that it is expected to fund its expansions. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.757 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a current P/BV of 1.75x and FY24 (E) BVPS of Rs.432.51.
The stock closed at Rs.1388.15 on 20th October, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.1049.05 on 16th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1423.30 on 21st July, 20223. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1267.
In a recent past, the stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on weekly interval and seen surpassing above its key resistance of 1200 levels along with a decisive move above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly charts. Since then a consolidation phase has been witnessed in prices as stock witnessed sideways moves in the range of 1250-1400 zone with formation of lower high pattern. At the current juncture, fresh breakout has been observed above the “Cup & Handle” pattern visible on weekly charts, which points towards the next upswing into the prices from hereon. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1380-1390 levels for the upside target of 1540-1550 levels with SL below 1280 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.3211.25 on 20th October, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.2246 on 28th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.3275 on 19th October 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.2863.
After making its 52 week low of 2246 in month of March 2023, the stock witnessed almost a V shape recovery in prices and once again surpassed above its key resistance level of 2700 in short span of time. At the current juncture, the stock has been consolidating in a broader range of 2900-3200 from last more than three months. Technically the stock has managed to give a fresh break above the rectangle pattern formation after series of consolidation phase. Last week, the stock has also marked its 52 week high. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 3180-3210 levels for the upside target of 3675-3700 levels with SL below 2900 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
Charts by Reliable software
In the week gone by, Nifty and Banknifty closed with losses of over 1%; profit booking was observed at higher market levels. In terms of sectors, auto and small-cap stocks showed outperformance with respect to the market, while IT, consumer durables and financial services lagged behind on a weekly basis. Within the Nifty, the highest call open interest was spread across various strikes with minimal differences, with notable writing activity seen at 19,600, 19,700, 19,800, and 20,000. Conversely, the highest put open interest was registered at strikes 19,500 and 19,000, indicating substantial support levels. For the Banknifty, the highest call open interest was concentrated at strikes 44,500 and 45,000, while the highest put open interest was at strike 43,000. In terms of Implied Volatility (IV), call options for Nifty settled at 10.10%, whereas put options concluded at 11.21%. The Nifty VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, ended the week at 10.90%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 0.88 for the week, indicating a higher level of call writing compared to put options. Notably, profit booking has been observed in the past few weeks at higher levels, which is now acting as a resistance for the market. Specifically, in Nifty, the level of 19,800 is anticipated to serve as a strong resistance, while in Banknifty, the psychological level of 45,000 is significant. It is expected that Nifty will trade within a broader range of 19,800 and 19,400. Abreakout on either side has the potential to provide further directional momentum to the index.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices witnessed huge volatility last week and closed with modest gains on supply concerns. Overall arrivals have been down in Oct’23 due to lower production in year 2023 that capped major down fall in prices. However, sluggish physical demand is visible at prevailing levels as prices have seen a persistent downfall after touching all time high of 18076 in Jul’23. Despite witnessing downfall of 25% from the record high levels, turmeric prices are still almost double as compared to last year level of 7300. Demand is likely to remain subdued as stockists and millers are avoiding bulk buying in expectation of further fall in prices. Improved yield prospects with favorable weather for crop growth are likely to weigh on market sentiments. However, there is a support for improved export opportunities, as turmeric exports have increased by 25% due to rising demand in both developed and emerging nations. Turmeric prices are likely to trade with negative bias may slip towards 12800 with resistance of 15900 levels.
Jeera futures extended its losses due to prevailing concerns over sluggish exports. Moreover, subdued buying in domestic market also weighed on market sentiments as bleak export enquires prompted stockists to release their stocks on every jump in prices. Going forward, prices are likely to track the upcoming sowing activities of Jeera, which is likely to commence by last week of Oct. Adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities in coming days. Subdued export of jeera is still major concerns for exporters that will weigh on prices further. Global demand of Indian jeera slumped as most of buyers preferred other destinations like Syria and Turkey due to higher prices of Jeera in India. India exported about 7.1 thousand tonnes of Jeera in July’23 as compared to 19 thousand tonnes of previous year. Total jeera export during Apr’23-Jul’23 was reported at 57.5 thousand tonnes against the 63.3 thousand tonnes of previous year. Export is likely to remain down in upcoming months as per the export seasonality. However, limited availability of quality crop in the market will cap the losses. Jeera Prices are likely to trade in range of 51200-58200 levels.
Dhaniya prices are likely to trade down on sluggish buying at prevailing levels. Adequate stocks at major trading centers weighed on market sentiments. Going forward, prices will track the upcoming sowing activities, which is likely to start later in October. Weather condition is looking favorable for sowing that will lead to commencement of sowing activities on positive note. However, exports demand has been active and exports are expected to improve further. Dhaniya export rose significantly in year 2023 due to supply concerns on other producing countries. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 6400-7300 levels.
Gold prices reached a three-month high and recorded their second consecutive weekly gain. This increase in demand is attributed to the Middle East conflict and the perception that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant's remarks about the Gaza border situation hinted at the possibility of an imminent ground invasion to combat Hamas, further contributing to gold's appeal as a safe haven asset during times of political and financial uncertainty. Gold prices surged by 2.4% over the course of the week. Gold's prices were also supported by diminishing fears of another Federal Reserve rate hike in 2023. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the rise in yields was tightening financial conditions, potentially reducing the necessity for additional rate hikes. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan indicated that recent data and higher bond market borrowing costs provide room for the central bank to carefully consider its next monetary policy steps. Market expectations are leaning towards the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. On the COMEX, gold prices are hovering near the psychological level of $1980. A breakout above this level could push prices towards $2040, with support standing at $1900. Silver is likely to continue following gold's lead, trading in the range of $21.500 to $25.800. Looking ahead to the week, MCX Gold may continue to witness buying interest, finding support near 58,900 and facing resistance near 62,000. Meanwhile, silver may trade within the range of 68,000 to 75,000.
Crude oil prices surged for a second consecutive week, driven by mounting concerns that the Israel-Gaza conflict could spread across the Middle East, potentially disrupting oil supplies from a significant producing region. An explosion at a Gaza hospital and the looming Israeli ground invasion escalated worries about regional instability. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant's remarks hinted at an imminent ground invasion. The U.S. intercepted missiles fired from Yemen toward Israel, adding to the broader anxiety. Oil prices also found support in projections of a widening fourth-quarter deficit. Top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia extended supply cuts until year-end, combined with low inventories, especially in the United States. Moreover, the temporary lifting of U.S. oil sanctions on OPEC member Venezuela is unlikely to necessitate immediate policy changes from the OPEC+ producer group, as a gradual production recovery is expected. Looking ahead, crude oil prices are poised to stay elevated, with potential support at 7,100 and resistance at 7,900. Buying near support is advised in crude oil. Conversely, natural gas prices dipped for a seventh consecutive session, reaching a two-week low. The decline followed a significant increase in EIA natural gas inventories and expectations of warmer weather in the eastern U.S., reducing demand for heating and air conditioning. This drop was triggered by a significant increase in weekly EIA natural gas inventories, which rose by 97 bcf, surpassing expectations of 83 bcf. In contrast, cooler weather prevailed in the western U.S. In the upcoming week, natural gas prices may continue to correct, with a focus on weather forecasts. The expected trading range could be between 235 and 300.
Base metal prices saw a weekly decline, influenced by the strengthening of U.S. Treasury yields, which, in turn, bolstered the U.S. dollar. Despite this, the decline was somewhat curbed by the prospect of increased stimulus measures in China, a key consumer of these metals. The recent price weakness has raised concerns within the mining industry, especially for copper. Copper prices have experienced a drop of over 14% since their peak in January. Major copper producer Freeport- McMoRan expressed concerns about prices being too low to justify significant investments in new projects. Looking ahead, copper prices are expected to trade within the range of 685-720. Zinc, on the other hand, has shown relative underperformance due to an accumulation of excess metal, marking a transition in the global market from a supply shortfall to an expanding surplus. The ILZSG recently reversed its earlier assessmentinAprilthatthe market would experience a small supply deficit of 45,000 tonnes this year. China's national refined zinc output is projected to grow by 6.7% this year and an additional 4.1% next year, contributing to global production growth of 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. Zinc is expected to continue trading with a bearish bias, with a potential trading range of 205-230. Lead, may consolidate within the range of 180-190. Aluminum, tracking the broader decline in base metals, faced challenges due to the outlook of a hawkish Federal Reserve and a slowing Chinese economy, which dampened industrial sentiment. Nevertheless, concerns about the supply of bauxite, a primary ore for Aluminum, emerged due to Indonesia's ban on bauxite exports. This factor limited the extent of the Aluminum price downturn, and is likely to trade within the range of 195-215.In the steel market, prices may trade in the range of 42,900-45,300 with a bearish bias.
Cotton prices are likely to trade down with surging arrival pressure in the market. Fresh arrivals has increased in northern part of India and likely to pick up in central region with advancement of harvesting activities. Weather condition is favorable for harvesting that will boost supplies of new crop in the market. The Progressive Arrival of Cotton were reported at 8.96 lakh bales as on 16th Octin crop year 2023- 24 which started in Oct’23. Meanwhile, Cotton Association of India (CAI) released its final estimate of crop production for the 2022- 23 (October-September) season and pegged it slightly higher at 31.8 million bales (1 bale=170 kg) from its previous estimate of 31.1 million bales in July that led to upwards revision of ending stocks from 2.32 million bales to 2.89 million bales. Apart from that, prices will track the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released by USDA that showed downward revision in beginning stocks by 10.3 million bales to 82.8 million bales. Ending stocks also dropped from 89.96 million bales to 79.92 million bales. Cotton MCX Nov prices are likely to trade in range of 57200-60500. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1560-1670 level. Similarly, cotton seed oil cake (Cocud) will trade down with increased availability of alternative meals in the market. Improved supply prospects will weigh on prices. Cocud prices are expected to slip towards support of 2640 in coming days whereas resistance is 2860.
Guar seed Nov futures are expected to trade sideways to higher on increased demand at physical market. Stockists are showing buying interest at prevailing levels in wake of weaker production estimates. Sharp gains in crude oil prices with ongoing geopolitical tension among gulf countries has sparked the hope of rise in drilling activities in US that will lead to rise in export demand of guar gum . Lower production and expectation of rise in seasonal demand of gum in Oct-Dec is likely to help prices to trade on positive bias ahead. Guar seed prices are likely to honor the support of 5500 and expected to move up towards the resistance of 6250 levels. Gum prices are likely to trade in range of 11000-13600 levels.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade sideways to down due to demand concerns. Export demand of menthol has been subdued that prompted stockists to stay away from bulk buying.India exported about 1.5 thousand tonnes of menthol is July’23 as compared to 1.9 thousand tonnes of previous year. Overall export of menthol was reported at 4.2 thousand tonnes during the period of Apr-Jul’23 against the 5.2 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, supplies are also down that may trigger short cover any time at futures platform. Mentha oil Oct prices are likely to find support near 870 and resistance can be seen at 945 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade down due to muted domestic demand. Improved crop condition in Gujarat and higher production prospects supported by rise in area under castor seed in year 2023 is likely to weigh on market sentiments. Castor seed Nov prices are likely to trade in range of 5830-6200 levels.
It closed at Rs. 218.85 on 19th Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.221.408. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.028. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.222 for a target of Rs. 207 with the stop loss of 229.
It closed at Rs. 7330.00 on 19th Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.7040.334. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.366. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.7370 for a target of Rs.7870 with the stop loss of 7170.
It closed at Rs.2738.00 on 19th Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.2645.10 On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.502. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.
One can sell near Rs.2755 for a target of Rs. 2500 with the stop loss of 2860.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The heightened conflict between Israel and Hamas resulted in an increased "war premium" in both the crude oil and bullion markets. As a result, the CRB index closed above the 324 mark. The Dollar Index managed to recover from its weekly losses as investors returned to safehaven assets following a decline in the equity market. U.S. two-year Treasury yields reached levels not seen since 2000. On MCX, the price of gold rose from a low of 56,075 to a high of 60,615 in a three-week timeframe. Silver demonstrated greater volatility than gold during the same period, experiencing a rapid recovery from a low of 65,666 to a high of 72,745. Crude oil prices surged due to concerns related to the Israel-Hamas conflict, alongside a more than 50% increase in freight rates on several routes. Natural Gas futures experienced a second consecutive week of decline due to mild weather conditions. In the realm of base metals, copper, after five weeks of decline, fluctuated around the 700 level, ultimately closing the week with a modest upside. Lead prices appreciated, while aluminum and zinc ended the week in negative territory. China’s third-quarter gross domestic product grew a bigger-than-expected 4.9%, indicating that recent stimulus measures from Beijing were bearing fruit.
In the agricultural sector, castor seed prices fell below the 6,000 mark, while cotton candy futures on MCX rose. However, its derivative cotton oil seeds cake declined on NCDEX. Guar gum and guar seed prices saw increases for the third consecutive week, likely due to reduced production and expectations of heightened seasonal demand for gum in the October- December period. The arrival of the new crop has commenced and is expected to increase further in Rajasthan. In the spices market, cumin (jeera) prices experienced a substantial decline for the fourth week, primarily due to diminished export demand. In spices, jeera witnessed a massive fall for the fourth week, going from a high of 62,500 to a low of 53,000 due to lower export demand. Adequate soil moisture and favorable weather conditions for crops will boost overall sowing activities in the coming days. Subdued exports of jeera are still a major concern for exporters and will likely cap major gains in prices. Turmeric and coriander prices received some support from lower-level buying. However, upside potential was limited in turmeric due to improved yield prospects resulting from favorable weather conditions in key growing states. Stockists and millers are avoiding bulk buying in light of improved crop conditions in major producing states. Nonetheless, losses are likely to be limited due to shrinking arrivals in the physical market. Dhaniya exports rose significantly in 2023 due to supply concerns in other producing countries. Mentha oil prices breached the mark of 900.
The terror attacks on Israel by the Islamist group Hamas pose one of the most significant geopolitical risks to oil markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year. The Hamas attacks have thrust the entire region into a highly uncertain new era, both politically and otherwise. Energy market analysts are trying to make sense of what it may mean for global oil prices, which have been on a dramatic trajectory since 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
So far, these attacks have not prompted energy price spikes, as oil flows have not yet been affected. However, the risk of escalation in oil-producing regions means the market is nervous. When the conflict broke out in Israel, crude oil prices jumped by nearly 5% to $89 (€83) a barrel on October 09. The spike was caused by uncertainty around potential supply issues, but prices have since settled. Currently, prices are well below the figure of $97 a barrel that was reached in late September.
1970s oil crises sparked price jumps
The most dramatic oil crises of the 20th century followed conflicts in the Middle East. The Yom Kippur War of 1973 saw several Arab states attack Israel, leading to an oil crisis that saw oil prices jump by more than 300%. The second major oil crisis, in 1979, followed the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the subsequent drop in oil production, which caused global oil supply to fall by around 4%, with prices for a barrel of crude oil more than doubling.
This time, the situation is different from the 1973 oil crisis. On October 4, OPEC confirmed it would maintain production cuts until the end of 2023. Despite this news, prices continued on the downward trend since the end of September. Saudi Arabia and Russia have already announced voluntary supply cuts until the end of 2023, pushing oil prices to 10-month highs in late September before macroeconomic concerns pulled them dramatically lower again last week. However, global crude oil supply remains at more than 101 million b/d, which is almost equal to global demand.
The role of Iran in global oil
If the conflict widens to include Hezbollah or Iran, the U.S. could tighten or step up enforcement of sanctions on Iran, which could further strain an already undersupplied oil market. It is also possible that a deal being brokered by Washington to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which could see the kingdom increase oil output, could be derailed.
So far, U.S. and Israeli officials have avoided blaming Iran for direct involvement in Hamas's unprecedented attacks on Israeli civilians and military installations. But if evidence surfaces that Iran provided material or financial support for Hamas's attacks, the U.S. may enforce sanctions on Iran's oil exports. Although Iranian oil is sanctioned, it has flowed in significant volumes to China and elsewhere
recently, easing oil markets in the wake of restrictions placed on Russian oil. Iran also called for an oil embargo against Israel over its airstrikes on Gaza, causing crude futures to rise. However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is not planning to take any immediate action on Iran's call, easing concerns over potential oil flow disruptions.”
The Dollar Index is currently in a consolidation phase, trading within the range of 105.30 to 107.00 levels. This consolidation is a result of market participants assessing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's concerns regarding inflation and economic growth are influencing market sentiment. There is an expectation of interest rates remaining stable at the November meeting. Recent economic indicators provide a mixed picture. Despite these factors, the Dollar Index's overall trend has remained bullish since reaching 99.20 in July. The current sideways movement within the 105.30 to 107.00 range indicates a bullish bias. This range is acting as both a support and resistance zone. If Dollar Index manages to hold above 107.00, it could potentially reshape its upward trajectory. The 14-period RSI, positioned near 55-57, suggests a comfortable trading setup with potential momentum. In summary, the overall trend remains bullish, with room for potential upside. Even a dip to 105.30 may present opportunities for an upward reversal, with the possibility of further gains beyond 107.USD/INR, on the other hand, has entered a consolidation phase within the range of 83.10 to 83.40 after reaching a record high. However, the pair is currently under pressure as the weekend approaches, nearing a crucial support level. A break below 83.10 may lead to further correction, potentially testing or breaching the 83.00 mark. The 14-period RSI momentum oscillator is around 45-47, indicating a bearish divergence and suggesting the potential for additional downward movement. Additionally, USD/INR has broken below its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling the possibility of further decline. Despite these short-term pressures, it's important to acknowledge the overall bullish trend of both USD/INR and the Dollar Index. The range of 82.90-83.00 levels is a notable support zone.
USDINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.23. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.12 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.8 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.5 levels.
One can buy near 83 for the target of 83.5 with the stop loss of 82.75
GBPINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 101.8. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 35.67 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 100 levels, while resistance is expected near 101.8 levels.
One can sell near 101 for the target of 100 with the stop loss of 101.5
EURINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 88.2. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.15 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 87.2 levels, while resistance is expected near 88.8 levels.
One can buy near 87.8 for the target of 88.8 with the stop loss of 87.3
JPYINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 56.05. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 31.32 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55 levels, while resistance is expected near 56.1 levels.
One can sell near 55.8 for the target of 54.8 with the stop loss of 56.3
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The company will not receive any proceeds from the Offer and all the Offer Proceeds will be received by the Selling Shareholders, in proportion to the Offered Shares sold by the respective Selling Shareholders as part of the Offer.
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.346, EPS and P/E of FY2023 are Rs.9.23 and 37.51 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 329, P/E multiple is 35.66. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.346, book value and P/B of FY23 are Rs. 39.29 and 8.81 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 329 P/B multiple is 8.37. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital
Incorporated in 1968, Blue Jet Healthcare is a pharmaceutical and healthcare ingredient and an intermediate company. Blue Jet Healthcare was the first manufacturer of saccharin and its salts (artificial sweeteners) in India. The company later expanded into contrast media intermediates, which are used in CT scans and MRIs. The company mainly deals in three product categories: (i) contrast media intermediates, (ii) high-intensity sweeteners, and (iii) pharma intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients. Blue Jet Healthcare is a global, science-led pharmaceutical company.
Large manufacturer of contrast media intermediates in India: It manufactures contrast media intermediates and supply a critical starting intermediate and several advanced intermediates primarily to three of the largest contrast media manufacturers in the world, including GE Healthcare AS, Guerbet Group, and Bracco Imaging S.p.A, directly. It has supplied over 75% of the value of exports of a selected contrast media intermediate (5-Amino-N,N’-bis (2,3-dihydroxypropyl) isophthalamide) from India over the calendar years 2020 to 2022. The company has three manufacturing facilities, which are situated in Shahad (Unit I), Ambernath (Unit II) and Mahad (Unit III) in the state of Maharashtra, India, with an annual installed capacity of 200.60 KL, 607.30 KL and 213.00 KL, respectively, as of June 30, 2023. As of 30 June 2023, the company has catered to more than 400 customers in 39 countries.
Strong clientele: The company’s global and domestic customers include GE Healthcare AS, Guerbet Group, Bracco Imaging SpA, Colgate-Palmolive (India), Unilever, Prinova US LLC, and MMAG Company. In FY22, 76 percent of the company's income came from Europe, followed by India (17.14 percent), the US (4.18 percent) and some other countries.
Strong product development and process optimization capabilities with a focus on sustainability: Blue Jet business is attributable to its strong product development and process optimization capabilities, underpinned by its in-house R&D capabilities, which has enabled it to forward integrate from manufacturing a key starting intermediate as building block for contrast media in 2000 to 18 additional advanced intermediates with higher realization and profitability per unit.
Manufacturing facilities with regulatory accreditations: The company currently operates three manufacturing facilities, which are located in Shahad (Unit I), Ambernath (Unit II) and Mahad (Unit III) in the state of Maharashtra, India, with an annual installed capacity of 200.60 KL, 607.30 KL and 213.00 KL, respectively, as of June 30, 2023. The layouts and equipment configuration of its manufacturing facilities help it ensure batch-to-batch consistency. As the offtake volume of its customers continued to increase, its production capacity increased rapidly from an aggregate installed capacity of 230 KL as of March 31, 2018 to 1,020.90 KL as of June 30, 2023.
Continue to forward integrate into more advanced intermediates for Contrast Media: It enjoys a competitive advantage in the global contrast media market, which is built on (i) established customer relationships with the top contrast media manufacturers, (ii) deep understanding of its customers’ requirements, (iii) chemistry and process development capabilities, and (iv) proven track record of forward integration. By further improving its technical know-how and chemistry capabilities in close synergy with its customers, it intends to capture a larger wallet share with its existing customers going forward.
Build additional production capacity to keep in step with the envisaged increase in customer demands: The company plans to expand its production capacities in Unit II, from 607.30 KL as of June 30, 2023 to 743 KL by the Financial Year 2025. It plans to expand its production capacity from 213.00 KL as of June 30, 2023 to 499 KL as of the Financial Year 2025 in Unit III. It also acquired a Greenfield manufacturing site (Unit IV) on a leasehold basis in Ambernath in 2021 to build several multi-purpose blocks dedicated to its pharma intermediate and API business, which allowed it to increase its manufacturing capacity and scale its business.
Blue Jet Healthcare, which established a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) business model, operates its business in three product categories, one is contrast media intermediates, second is high-intensity sweeteners, and the last is pharma intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). Its business model focuses on collaboration, development, and manufacturing of complex chemistry categories. However, the company is dependent on Europe and the United States, which are regulated markets, for a significant portion of its revenue from operations. Moreoverthe entire issue isOFS;the fund raised through this issue will not go to the company.
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