In the past weak, global stock markets experienced marginal gains as the Fed maintained I unchanged interest rates for the second consecutive time. Additional data released indicated a slowdown in inflation, fostering investor confidence that the Federal Reserve might halt further rate increases. Unexpectedly, labor costs decreased in the third quarter, and weekly jobless claims rose to 217,000. European stock markets also made gains despite persistent volatility in the Middle East, with investors closely monitoring economic data from Germany. Sentiment in Europe was uplifted by news that Euro Zone inflation reached its lowest level in over two years in October. However, the German economy contracted by 0.8% on a price-adjusted basis compared to the third quarter of 2022. In other global news, the Bank of England opted to maintain its main interest rate at the 15-year high of 5.25%, foreseeing a further decline in UK inflation over the next few months. Data from China unexpectedly revealed a contraction in manufacturing in October. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 in October from 50.6 in September, marking the first contraction in four months. Economists polled by Reuters had anticipated a reading of 50.8. Japan's stock markets also rose after the Bank of Japan increased flexibility in its yield curve control policy. The Bank of Japan stated that the target level of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield would remain at 0%, with an upper bound of 1% serving as a reference point.
On the home front, domestic stock markets rose in line with positive global cues after the US Fed maintained its stance on interest rates, fueling expectations that the central bank has concluded its rate hikes. Contributing to this optimism were positive auto sales figures, an increase in GST collection, robust factory data, and Q2 earnings surpassing estimates. The Indian commercial vehicles sector displayed steady growth in Q2 FY24, mirroring the upward trend in economic activity. While foreign investors continued as net sellers; domestic investors were active buyers. With the Fed's decision out of the way, attention has reverted to corporate earnings, now in their last leg.
Regarding the commodity market, the CRB index retreated from its recent highs due to a decline in war-related premiums. Both gold and silver prices decreased as investors secured profits in anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In the energy market, natural gas futures witnessed a second consecutive weekly increase, while crude oil prices corrected significantly for two consecutive weeks. Gold and silver may trade within a volatile range of 59,500-62,500 and 70,000-75,000 respectively. Crude oil may find support around 6,600 with resistance near 7,100. Base metals may have limited upside potential. Natural gas prices might increase further, if the Arctic blast persists. This week, significant data such as interest rate decisions by BoA, Germany's inflation rate, China's inflation rate, Mexico's GDP and Unemployment rate, New Yuan Loans of China, Michigan Consumer Sentiments, US Inflation Rate, and Core Inflation Rate are scheduled. Traders must closely monitor these data points while engaging in commodity trading.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
The bank is well capitalized with adequate liquidity buffers for future growth. Improving asset quality and strong position in Payments and Digital Banking indicate future growth visibility. According to the management of the bank, with the upcoming festivities, the bank is already seeing a surge in demand, which augurs well for business. At Axis Bank, its GPS (Growth, Profitability and Sustainability) agenda is on track and looking at steady growth for all the major business verticals of the bank. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.1161 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on 2 years average P/BV of 2.04x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.568.91.
The company is witnessing continuous growth in its urban business and gradual improvement in rural demand. It is expected that as rural demand picks up gradually, hair oil volume growth will improve in the quarters ahead. Management is confident of achieving double-digit earnings growth over the next two years with a good recovery in sales volumes of core and scale-up in NPDs/international business coupled with uptick in OPM. Its June quarter earnings commentary said that the hair oil market has grown in both volume and value terms for the first time after eight quarters growth visibility. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.284 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on current P/BV of 4.29x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.66.30.
The stock closed at Rs.2594.65 on 03rd November, 2023. It made a 52-week low of Rs.1762.05 on 20th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.2684.65 on 02nd November, 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.2274.
In recent past, the stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on weekly charts and manages to surpass above its 200 days exponential moving average on weekly interval. After giving a breakout above the Cup & Handle pattern on weekly charts stock has went into consolidation phase and seen trading in a broader range of 2300-2580. After a series of consolidation, the stock has given a fresh breakout above its key resistance level of 2580 with rise in volumes as well. The prices volume action suggest for next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2575-2595 levels for the upside target of 2975-2995 levels with SL below 2300 levels.
The stock closed at Rs.1020.70 on 03rd November, 2023. It made a 52-week low at Rs.793.85 on 10th November, 2022 and a 52-week high of Rs.1102.05 on 06th July 2023. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.983.
After making its 52 week high of 1102.05 in month of July 2023, the stock had been trading in a downward sloping channel with a formation of lower low & lower high pattern on daily charts as traders are seen booking profits at higher levels. However at current juncture, the stock has once shown a bounce into the prices after testing and taking a support at its 200 days exponential moving average on daily charts. Technically, the stock has formed a W pattern and given a fresh breakout above the falling trend line of long term declining channel seen on daily interval. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1010-1020 levels for the upside target of 1095-1100 levels with SL below 960 levels.
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
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In the past week, the Indian stock market displayed notable resilience with Nifty closing at a 0.96% gain, while Banknifty surged even higher, closing with a 1.25% gain. This positive momentum indicates a bullish sentiment among investors. Among the sectors, auto and metal emerged as the major laggards in relation to Nifty. On the flip side, realty and media sectors demonstrated significant strength, outperforming the broader market. Acloser look at the options market reveals nteresting insights. The highest call open interest for Nifty is concentrated at strikes 19,300 and 19,500. Conversely, the highest put open interest is observed at strike 19,200, suggesting a significant support level. Turning to Banknifty options, the highest call open interest is clustered at strikes 43,500 and 44,000. Conversely, the highest put open interest is concentrated at strikes 43,000 and 43,300, indicating support levels for Banknifty. In terms of Implied Volatility (IV), call options for Nifty settled at 9.77%, while put options concluded at 10.09%. The India VIX, which serves as a gauge of market volatility, closed the week at 11.08%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.17 for the week. In the recent performance of Nifty and Banknifty, along with the dynamics in various sectors, suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for the Indian stock market. Investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, which may provide further insights into the market's direction in the coming weeks. Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 19400 on upside whereas on downside it may test 19000 as support.
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**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
Turmeric prices witnessed sideways trade last week kept bias on positive side on renewed buying in local market. Tighter supplies of quality produce and increased buying interest helped prices to move up further. Arrivals remain slower as about 914 thousand tonnes were arrived at major APMC mandies across India during first week of Nov against the 1647 tonnes of previous year for corresponding period. Export enquires have improved with recent fall in prices that will lead to rise in exports in coming weeks. Export seasonality of turmeric suggests that export will remain higher in coming months. Turmeric export has been higher by 16.2% Y-o-Y during time period of Apr’23-Aug’23. Apart from the exports and domestic buying, prices will track the crop progress with is looking satisfactory as of now. Weather condition has been supportive that will boost the yield. However, overall production is estimated to be down by 8%-10% due to lower area under turmeric in year 2023. Shrinking supplies and bleak production prospects will cap the major downfall in prices. Turmeric prices are likely to trade in range of 11550 -15100 in coming weeks.
Jeera prices witnessed sharp losses in Oct’23 tracking muted domestic demand. Mounting fear of further fall in prices and bleak export enquires sparked profit booking at futures as well as physical counters. Total Jeera exports have slumped 26% Y-o-Y during Apr’23-Aug’23. Warehouses of NCDEX started depleting with surging selling pressure in the market and impact of the same was visible at futures platform. Jeera futures dropped more than 40% 39630 by end of first week of Nov’23 from the record high level of 65900 tracking lukewarm demand at physical market. Going forward, prices are likely to track sowing activities that are expected to pick up in coming weeks. Better return over cost of cultivation and conducive sowing prospects will weigh on the market sentiments. However, new crop of jeera is still away by 5 months and quality stocks levels are lower as compared to last year that will reflect as short covering in prices any time at futures platform. Jeera Prices are expected to trade in range of 38000- 49000 in near term.
Dhaniya prices are likely to trade on mixed to lower as some profit booking is likely to be seen in prices. Stocks are adequate and physical buying has been slower after recent gains in prices. Major focus is on ongoing sowing activities, which is likely to pick up in coming weeks. Weather conditions are looking supportive for sowing progress that will reflect as rise in area under dhaniya in year 2023. However, losses in dhaniya are likely to be capped by sustained export. Exports demand has been active and exports are expected to improve further due to tighter global supplies. India exported about 6.2 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in Aug’23 against the 2.6 thousand tonnes of last year whereas overall export was reported at 81.3 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Aug’23 higher by 268% Y-o-Y. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7100-7800 levels.
Gold prices saw selling pressure over the week as investors exercised caution, refraining from making significant moves while awaiting the release of the U.S. October non-farm payrolls report, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. Gold had declined by almost 1% for the week, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's upcoming decisions. Investors are eager to receive more critical data before making substantial bets on gold, especially with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. In line with market expectations, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged during its Wednesday meeting. This led to increased speculation that the central bank might have concluded its rate hikes, resulting in a decline in the dollar and Treasury yields. Currently, there is an approximately 80% probability, according to the CME FedWatch tool, that the Fed will maintain rates in December. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it less attractive. On Thursday, data revealed a moderate increase in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits. From a technical perspective, gold prices faced challenges in gaining momentum, encountering resistance near the $2,000 mark. Sustaining above this level could drive prices to $2,045, while a failure to do so might lead to a reversal of the trend, potentially pushing prices down to $1,950. Silver, on the flip side, remained within a broader range of $20.60 to $24.20. Looking ahead to the coming week, gold prices on MCX are anticipated to trade with a mixed bias, featuring movements in both directions. The potential trading range is expected to be between 59,600 and 61,400. For silver, a trading range of 68,500 to 74,200 is expected in the upcoming week.
Crude oil prices have seen a second consecutive week of decline due to eased Middle East concerns, reducing worries about supply disruptions in a key oilproducing region. However, the demand outlook in China, the world's largest crude oil importer, remains uncertain, impacting oil market dynamics. While oil prices have benefited from an improved risk environment, with growing optimism that the Federal Reserve has completed its interest rate hikes, they have continued to ride on these positive sentiments. China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in October, with the official purchasing managers' index (PMI) falling from 50.2 to 49.5, dropping below the crucial 50- point threshold indicating expansion or contraction. This data came from the National Bureau of Statistics. A private sector survey in China also revealed slightly faster services activity expansion in October, though sales grew at their slowest rate in ten months, and employment remained stagnant, reflecting dwindling business confidence. Geopolitical concerns have persisted, notably with Israeli forces encircling Gaza City in their ongoing offensive against Hamas, which has responded with hit-and-run attacks from underground tunnels. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia, a top oil exporter, is expected to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day oil-output cut through December, according to analysts. In the near future, oil prices are likely to remain volatile, with an estimated trading range of 6,680 to 7,150. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have shown a sideways trend, influenced by warming weather forecasts that have diminished demand. Recent demand dips are partly due to a cold front from Canada failing to advance aggressively into the United States. Natural gas prices in the coming week are projected to trade within a range of 285 to 335.
Base metals may trade sideways in the range as downbeat economic data of top consumer China dented the demand outlook while expectations of a weakening of the U.S. dollar, dragged by bets of no further rate hikes, in the coming weeks may support the counter. China's factory activity unexpectedly contracted in October, two surveys showed recently, renewing concerns over the state of the country's sprawling manufacturing sector. China last week approved a one trillion yuan ($137 billion) sovereign bond issue to support investment and economic growth. But monetary stimulus isn’t working and traditional fiscal tools have reached their limits. Copper may trade in the range of 695-730. Falling stocks of copper in LME approved warehouses, Shanghai Futures Exchange and in CME registered warehouses are helping sentiment. But copper output in Chile, the world's largest producer of the red metal, rose 4.1% year-on-year in September to 457,393 metric tons, the country's INE statistics agency said. October saw less demand for refined copper in China compared with September, moving the market to slight surplus, CITIC Futures said in a report. And the situation is likely to persist as consumption in November is expected to slide further. Zinc can trade in the range of 210-232 levels. Zinc may continue gains after Netherlands-based Nyrstar said it plans to temporarily close two U.S. zinc mines. Lead can move in the range of 180-192 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 198-215 levels. Aluminium smelters in China's south-western Yunnan province started production cuts last week as the hydropower-dependent region entered dry season. Steel long (Nov) is likely to trade in the range of 43000-45500 and sell on rise should be strategy.
Cotton prices traded down on surging arrival pressure in the market. Fresh arrivals has increased in northern part of India and is likely to pick up in central region with advancement of harvesting activities. Weather condition is favorable for harvesting that will boost supplies of new crop in the market. However, bleak production estimates for 2023-24 will cap the excessive losses in prices. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its first estimate of crop production for the 2023-24 (October-September) season, pegging it at 29.5 million bales (1 bale=170 kg), the lowest in 15 years. The estimates are down from 31.8 million bales last year, and the government's first advance estimate of 31.6 million bales for the current season. Export demand and winter season demand is likely to increase in coming months that will reflect as fresh buying for cotton. Cotton MCX Nov prices are likely to trade in range of 57000-61500. Similarly, Kapas Apr’24 futures are likely to trade in range of 1580-1670 level. Similarly, cotton seed oil cake (Cocud) will trade down with increased availability of alternative meals in the market. Improved supply prospects will weigh on prices. Cocud prices are expected to trade in range of 2800-3050.
Guar seed futures slipped further on lukewarm demand against the surging arrival pressure of fresh crop. Tumbling crush margin of millers with falling prices of gum and meal resulted into hand to mouth buying of guar seed at prevailing levels. Demand for guar meal has been muted with increased supplies of other meal alternative in the market. Moreover, reports of falling export of guar gum also weighed on market sentiments. Guar gum export dropped by 16% M-o-M in Aug’23 to near 17 thousand tonnes due to limited buying by USA. Losses in guar are likely to be limited due to weaker production estimations. Expectation of rise in export demand of gum is likely to cap losses in guar. Guar seed prices are likely to find support near 5450 whereas resistance is seen at 6080. Similarly, Guar gum prices are likely to honor support of 10800 whereas resistance is seen at 12700 levels.
Mentha oil prices are likely to trade on positive bias with improved buying interest against limited availability in the market. Supplies have dropped with fall in production in year 2023 and that will support firmness in prices ahead. However, sluggish export of mentha oil is still major concerns for exporters that will cap the gains. India exported about 692 tonnes of mentha oil during Apr23-Aug’23 as compared to 886 tonnes of previous year down by 21% Y-o-Y. Mentha oil Nov prices are likely to find support near 885 and resistance can be seen at 970 levels.
Castor seed prices are likely to trade sideways to higher with shrinking supplies in the market. Reports ofrise in export of castor meal are likely to supportfirmness in prices. Castor seed prices are likely to trade in range of 5660-6200 levels.
It closed at Rs. 60911.00 on 02nd Nov 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.60281.94. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67.930. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.60500 for a target of Rs. 61800 with the stop loss of 59900.
It closed at Rs. 205.80 on 02nd Nov 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.205.50. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.381. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs.203 for a target of Rs. 218 with the stop loss of 196.
It closed at Rs. 5758.00 on 02nd Oct 2023. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 5879.93. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39.692. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.
One can buy near Rs. 5700 for a target of Rs. 6100 with the stop loss of 5500.
NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low
The CRB index declined from its recent highs due to a decrease in war-related premiums. Gold and silver prices dropped as investors sought to secure profits in anticipation of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. In the energy market, natural gas futures saw their second consecutive weekly increase, while crude oil prices corrected significantly for two consecutive weeks. U.S. inventory data for the week ending October 27 showed a build in oil inventories slightly smaller than expected. Distillate inventories experienced a smaller-than-expected decline, while gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, though to a limited extent. The dollar index closed in negative territory as the Fed chose to maintain unchanged interest rates, leading to continued decline in bond yields. Copper prices rebounded after a six-week decline, and other base metals also moved upward due to the Fed's decision and positive economic indicators. However, two surveys showed that China's factory activity unexpectedly contracted in October, renewing concerns about the country's sprawling manufacturing sector. This led to aluminium smelters in China's southwestern Yunnan province initiating production cuts as the hydropower-dependent region entered the dry season.
The past week was bearish for agricultural commodities, witnessing castor prices plummet for the sixth consecutive week. Cotton candy futures continued within a bearish trend. Prices of cotton oil seeds cake rose from their lows due to improved buying activity, while guar seed and guar gum prices declined due to increased supplies in the market. The surging arrival pressure of the fresh crop, coupled with reports of sluggish guar gum exports, weighed on market sentiments. Jeera prices experienced a sharp drop, falling from 64,000 to 42,000 in just nine weeks. The expected increase in the area under jeera cultivation for the year 2023 is due to better price realization over the cost of cultivation. Favorable weather conditions and adequate soil moisture facilitate sowing activities, while sluggish export demand added pressure to prices. However, dhaniya and turmeric futures provided some buying opportunities for traders. Dhaniya prices saw an uptick due to shrinking supplies and sustained exports. India exported about 6.2 thousand tonnes of dhaniya in Aug’23, up from 2.6 thousand tonnes the previous year, with overall exports reaching 81.3 thousand tonnes during Apr’23-Aug’23, marking a 268% year-on-year increase. Prices are expected to track upcoming sowing activities likely to intensify in the coming weeks. Supplies remain low at major trading centers, and the crop outlook appears bleak for the upcoming season due to a decline in turmeric cultivation in major producing states like Maharashtra and Telangana. India's turmeric production is anticipated to decrease to 10.26 lakh tonnes during the 2023-24 season, down from 11.6 lakh tonnes the previous year.
Yellow metal is always the prominent choice among the investors to park their money and diversifying their portfolio in troubled times of geopolitical uncertainty, pandemic related environment and global economic slowdown concerns. In times of current global crisis and uncertainty, gold has become the most reliable reserve for global central banks as well. Geopolitical crises, supply chain difficulties and surging inflation weighed heavily on the global economy and reinvigorated investor interest, pushing the potential surge in gold prices.
Gold Demand in India
Despite a temporary decline in gold demand in the third quarter, considering the current market conditions, the World Gold Council's outlook remains bullish, fuelled by the persistent allure of gold for both central banks and investors seeking stability in a volatile world. Investment demand is also expected to remain strong as the combination of high inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions will likely to push demand for gold amongst investors. Gold demand in India usually strengthens towards the end of the year, which coincides with the traditional wedding season and major festivals including Diwali and Dusherra, when bullion buying is considered auspicious.
Indian Rupee faced another week of narrow weakness dropping briefly below its lifetime low of 83.29 but later retreated a bit. At the moment, rupee is completely diverged from its underlying fundamentals as central bank intervention is quite high to defend rupee and most importantly whenever any small retreats seen in the dollar globally was not captured in the rupee against dollar as importers dollar bids are quite strong for hedging and outward remittances. Importers hedging are quite aggressive at a time when forward premiums are holding at multi year lows. In the wake of light economic data next week from the global markets, we can expect rupee to breach its narrow level as US yields May likely head higher despite a small pullback after the Fed's meeting. We can expect the rupee to trade in a new range between 83.00 to 83.55 to a dollar in the upcoming week. Globally the U.S. dollar saw a weekly decline against a basket of currencies as the market believed the Federal Reserve unlikely to raise rates further. This marks its third weekly loss in 16- weeks. Accordingly, the dollar index hit a one-week low of 105.80 immediately after the November FOMC statement. However, the forward guidance is highly data dependency which may create a quick shift in the rate expectations. Going forward NFP reactions followed by rate expectations between US and EZ and the UK will guide the dollar move. For the time being market sentiment shifted with a reduced probability of a December rate increase, dropping from 39% to less than 20% following the Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady which we think may change the sentiment in coming days. The US dollar is likely to get supported over euro and pound once the rate sentiment changes. Key focus on intervention in yen, if it slides below 152 to a dollar.
USDINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83.26. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.75 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.8 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.6 levels.
One can buy near 83 for the target of 83.6 with the stop loss of 82.75
GBPINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 101.5. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 49.35 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 100.5 levels, while resistance is expected near 102.5 levels.
One can sell near 102 for the target of 101 with the stop loss of 102.5
EURINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Bullish trend as trading above its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 88.27. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.42 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 87.65 levels, while resistance is expected near 89 levels.
One can buy near 88.4 for the target of 89.4 with the stop loss of 87.9
JPYINR (OCT) pair is currently in an Mild Bearish trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 55.81. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.27 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 55.2 levels, while resistance is expected near 56.4 levels.
One can sell near 56 for the target of 55 with the stop loss of 56.5
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The company will not receive any proceeds from the Offer and all the Offer Proceeds will be received by the Selling Shareholders, in proportion to the Offered Shares sold by the respective Selling Shareholders as part of the Offer.
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.792, EPS and P/E based on TTM are Rs.29.17 and 27.15 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 752, P/E multiple is 25.78. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.792, book value and P/B are Rs. 219.57 and 3.61 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 752 P/B multiple is 3.42. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital.
Incorporated in December 1995, Protean eGov Technologies Limited was previously known as NSDL e-Governance Infrastructure Limited. The company is engaged in the business of developing citizen-centric and population-scale e-governance solutions for more than 2 decades. Protean eGov Technologies has played a vital role in developing national infrastructure for capital market development in India. The company has developed & implemented some of the most crucial technological infrastructure in India. Since December 2022, the company has implemented and managed 19 projects spread across several ministries.
Pioneer and market leader in universal, citizen centric and population scale e-governance solutions: The company is among India’s top IT-enabled e-governance service providers in terms of profitability and operating income in Fiscal 2023. The company continues to be a market leader in provision of e-governance services such as management of the TIN, PAN processing, NPS and Atal Pension Yojana. The company is demonstrable experience in implementing and managing population scale critical solutions, and since inception and as of June 30, 2023, it has developed and implemented 19 projects across seven ministries across India.
Large physical infrastructure with pan-India network and scale resulting in inclusion: It has expanded its service network across India, growing from 33,041 centers in March 2021 to 79,374 centers in June 2023. By June 2023, its PAN and TIN facilitation centers reached more than 12,000 PIN codes across 700 Indian districts. By June 30, 2023, it had 7,121 TIN facilitation centers spanning 1,652 locations, where taxpayers could submit various statements. Protean eGov Technologies has expanded from 5,956 TIN centers as of March 2021 to 6,988 by March 2023. To reach more areas, it partnered with distribution networks like Nearby Technologies Private Limited, Fino Payments Bank Limited, Vakrangee Limited, and Payworld Digital Services Private Limited.
Diversified, granular and annuity based service offerings: Its digital services encompass e-Sign, e-KYC, Aadhaar Authentication, and e-PAN services. It diversified service offerings are spread across sectors such as tax administration, pension record keeping solutions, national identity and identity authentication solutions, education and skill financing solutions. In the fiscal year 2023, it managed more than 10.11 crore e-sign transactions, reaching a cumulative total of 27.63 crore e-sign transactions.
Track record of healthy financial performance: On the financial front, net profit for the year ended March FY23 reported at Rs 107.04 crore, which was lower compared to Rs 143.9 crore in previous year, but revenue from operations during the same period jumped to Rs 742.2 crore, from Rs 690.9 crore. For the June FY24 quarter, net profit increased to Rs 32.2 crore compared to Rs 21.3 crore in corresponding period last fiscal. Revenue from operations during the same period rose to Rs 220.4 crore, from Rs 156.75 crore.
Diversify offerings with a focus on new sectors: Protean eGov Technologies intends to extend its experience in implementing large scale time critical and data intensive project like Aadhaar to diverse sectors with the specific focus on health, education and agriculture. It intends to leverage its capabilities as an ecosystem creator to conceptualize, design and implement large-scale e-governance projects.
Expanding into newer geographies: Given its expertise in handling a range of IT/ ITES projects and its ability to provide diversified services and solutions, it intends to offer its services selectively in jurisdictions outside India. It will look to leverage its expertise of working and developing projects for the Indian government to similar projects in countries where it is currently evaluating projects. Considering this expertise, the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India has enlisted its Company under its “Development Partnership Frameworks” to promote India’s capabilities globally
Protean eGOV Technologies is a leading IT-enabled solutions company engaged in conceptualizing, developing and executing nationally critical and population scale Greenfield technology solutions. The company collaborates with the government and has extensive experience in creating digital public infrastructure and developing innovative citizen-centric e-governance solutions. The company is expanding its reach in neighboring countries for eGovernance plans. A long term investor may opt the issue.
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DSP Mutual Fund announced the launch of DSP Gold ETF Fund of Fund (the scheme) an open-ended Fund of Fund scheme investing in DSP Gold Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). The scheme offers investors a convenient way to invest in gold like a normal mutual fund scheme, compared to the physical version, with the freedom to trade easily. The New Fund Offer for the DSP Gold ETF Fund of Fund opens for subscription today, November 3rd, 2023, and closes on November 10, 2023. “Gold is a great addition to a typical equity – debt-heavy portfolio due to the low correlation to these asset classes. The scheme structure presents a convenient way to diversify your portfolio and systematically accumulate gold, automatically adding depth and multi-dimensionality to your investments," says Anil Ghelani, CFA, Head – Passive Investments & Products, DSP Mutual Fund. Gold is in focus due to global liquidity drying up, and increased demand from Central banks, combined with supply of the metal remaining stagnant. Investments in gold have typically done well at a time when there is a weakness in the dollar. Gold also has a historical negative or low correlation with equity which also makes it a good option to diversify away from equity. DSP Gold ETF Fund of Fund offers the advantage of owning Gold in a convenient digital form without the requirement for a demat account to transact. It also presents a systematic way to invest in Gold via SIPs along with the flexibility of redeeming the units without any lock-in period.
Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund announced the launch of the Kotak Consumption Fund. The scheme opened for public subscription on October 25, 2023, and will close on November 08, 2023. The scheme re-opens for continuous sale and repurchase within five business days from the date of allotment. This is an open-ended equity scheme following the consumption theme.
Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, KMAMC said, “With the launch of Kotak Consumption Fund, we are offering a window for our investors to be a part of the country’s fast-evolving consumption story. It’s about tapping into the shift from basic to smart - from analog to digital, from feature phones to smartphones, and from single-brand to multi-brand retail choices. This change reflects not just a change in buying capacity, but also a shift in aspirations. We offer this fund for our investors who want to be a part of the country’s growing consumption story and are looking for resilient sectors." The investment objective of the scheme is to generate long-term capital appreciation from a portfolio that is invested predominantly in equity and equity-related securities of companies engaged in consumption and consumption-related activities. However, there is no assurance that the objective of the scheme will be achieved.
Bajaj Finserv Mutual Fund announced the launch of the Bajaj Finserv Banking and PSU Fund. The scheme opened for public subscription on October 25, 2023, and will close on November 06, 2023. The scheme re-opens for continuous sale and repurchase within five days from the date of allotment. This is an open-ended debt scheme predominantly investing in debt instruments of banks, public sector undertakings, public financial institutions, and municipal bonds with relatively high-interest rate risk and moderate credit risk. The investment opportunity has been designed to offer investors an avenue for income generation. This fund intends to give investors the opportunity to invest in fixed income while ensuring that their investment portfolios have a high level of credit quality. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by predominantly investing in debt and money market securities issued by banks, public sector undertakings (PSUs), public financial institutions (PFIs), municipal bonds and reverse repos in such securities, sovereign securities issued by the Central Government and State Governments, and/or any security unconditionally guaranteed by the Government of India. There is no assurance or guarantee that the investment objective of the scheme will be achieved.
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