Contents

  • Equity 4-7
  • Derivatives 8-9
  • Commodity 10,15-17
  • Insurance 11-14
  • Currency 18
  • IPO 19
  • FD Monitor 20
  • Mutual Fund 21 - 22

From The Desk Of Editor

In the week gone by, global stock market moved higher as investors' cheered faster- I than-expected domestic economic growth and in-line U.S. inflation data. "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs after in-line U.S. inflation data, which kept intact the possibility of a June interest rate cut meaning more liquidity in the market. China's official gauge of manufacturing activity fell in February, indicating a deeper contraction despite a spate of initiatives to jolt vitality. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI nudged up slightly to 50.9 in February from 50.8 in January, surpassing analysts' forecasts of 50.6. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction. Now investors are waiting for gross domestic product growth target, which is to be announced at annual session of China's top legislature next week. Japan's benchmark index has continued to extend its rally amid positive global factors. Japan's unemployment rate dropped to 2.4% in January, from a revised 2.5% recorded in the previous month, but the purchasing managers index for manufacturing activity fell to 47.2 in February, showing depressed demand in domestic and international markets. On the flip side, Japan's February factory activity shrank at the fastest pace in more than three years on the back of weakening demand.

Back at home, domestic benchmarks the Sensex and the Nifty exhibited strong movement after Q3 GDP data showed that the Indian economy grew 8.4 percent, supported by healthy growth in manufacturing and construction sectors, while gross value added or GVA grew inline at 6.5 percent. The positive cues from the global markets also fuelled the rally, pushing Nifty closer to its all-time high. According to Nomura, growth is likely to remain resilient, especially under the environment of a stable global economic outlook. However, there are headwinds, including the impact of the general election code of conduct on public capex support, patchy recovery in private capex, weak state of consumption, and ebbing terms of trade advantage for corporates as input costs rise. Looking ahead, the market will continue to be influenced by both domestic and global factors.

On the commodity market front, the CRB index strengthened as the dollar index fell, supported by robust data, closing near 317. The dollar was mostly lower on weaker Durable Goods Order and GDP numbers. Gold prices saw a modest increase for the second consecutive week. Conversely, silver prices declined for the second week due to weaker base metals data. Natural gas gained much-needed support after four consecutive weeks of decline, while crude oil prices remained in positive territory with limited upside after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles stoked worries about slow demand, while signs that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated for longer also added to pressure.

(Saurabh Jain)

SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.

SMC is a SEBIregistered Research Analyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.

SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.

The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.

SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.

DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions, All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.

EQUITY

NEWS - DOMESTIC

Economy
  • India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth improved strongly to 8.4 percent year-on-year in the December quarter from 7.6 percent in the previous three months. Economists had forecast the growth rate to slow to 6.6 percent.
Media
  • Reliance Industries will merge its media business with the Walt Disney India unit to create a Rs 70,352 crore joint venture. The company holds a 16.34% direct stake and 46.82% through Viacom 18. Disney will own a 36.84% stake.
Capital Goods
  • Larsen & Toubro (L&T) announced that it has achieved a milestone in the clean energy space by commissioning its first indigenously manufactured electrolyser at the Green Hydrogen Plant at A M Naik Heavy Engineering Complex in Hazira, Gujarat.
  • Venus Pipes and Tubes announced its foray into the fittings business and announced capacity expansion for seamless and welded pipes and tubes. The company announced a capex of Rs 175 crore.
  • Shakti Pumps received work order worth Rs 84.3 crore from Haryana Renewable Energy Department for supply, installation and commissioning of 2,443 solar water pumping systems.
Energy
  • Coal India signed a joint venture with BHEL for a coal-to-ammonium nitrate plant. The company will hold a 51% stake in the joint venture, while BHEL will hold a 49% stake in the JV.
Construction
  • Dilip Buildcon's unit received an order worth Rs 1,955 crore from the National Highways Authority of India for the construction of the Four-Lane UrgaPatalgaon section in the State of Chhattisgarh.
Power
  • NTPC's unit signed a joint venture agreement with Maharashtra State Power Generation Company for the development of renewable energy parks in the state of Maharashtra.
Pharmaceuticals
  • Biocon arm signed a licence pact with Janssen Biotech and Johnson & Johnson to commercialise Bmab 1200 in the U.S. The USFDA conducted an inspection at the company's unit between Feb. 20 and 28 and has Form 483s with four observations.
Cement
  • Star Cement received a Letter of Intimation from Coal India on being successful bidders for the procurement of 3.12 lakh metric tonnes of coal per annum for a period of 10 years from the date of entering into fuel supply reements. This is in addition to the existing FSAfor subsidiaries.
Hotel
  • Chalet Hotels, part of K Raheja Corp group, has acquired Courtyard by Marriott Aravali Resort for Rs.315 crore. This 158-room property is spread over eight acres had been on the market for about a year now.
  • Lemon Tree Hotels announced the signing of two new properties: Sankhwas Garh, a Lemon Tree Resort and Keys Lite by Lemon Tree Hotels, Vijayawada.
Information Technology
  • Tanla Platforms has launched its new product, Trubloq.AI, which leverages generative AI to elevate the trusted Trubloq experience. The company aims to make digital commerce easierforIndian SMBs with WhatsApp-based solutions.
Finance
  • HUDCO has signed a MoU with NBCC for effective implementation of consultancy services, asset monetization activities, and corporate social responsibility activities.

PIVOT SHEET

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

  • US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter was downwardly revised to 3.2 percent from the previously reported 3.3 percent. Economists had expected the surge in GDP to be unrevised.
  • US pending home sales plunged by 4.9 percent to 74.3 in January after surging by 5.7 percent to a revised 78.1 in December. Economists had expected pending home sales to increase by 1.0 percent compared to the 8.3 percent spike originally reported for the previous month.
  • US consumer prices rose by 0.3 percent in January after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in December. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.
  • US initial jobless claims climbed to 215,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level of 202,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 210,000 from the 201,000 originally reported for the previous week.
  • The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent in January. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the December reading.
4

EQUITY

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)

BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

5

EQUITYBeat the street - Fundamental Analysis

WIPRO LIMITED

CMP: 519.15

Target Price: 610

Upside: 17%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 546.10/351.85
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 271255.50
  • EPS (Rs.) 17.10
  • P/E Ratio (times) 30.36
  • P/B Ratio (times) 5.07
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.20
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale

  • Wipro is a leading technology services and consulting company focused on building innovative solutions that address clients' most complex digital transformation needs.
  • It is accelerating adoption of AI across various verticals internally to improve efficiency, utilization and optimization. Every long term large deals has AI component. AI is present in most of the company's solutions and offerings. Moreover, Partnership with Nvidia is a great thing for the company especially in health care.
  • The management of the company expects revenue from its IT Services business segment to be in the range of US $ 2,615 million to US $2,669 million which translates to a sequential guidance of -1.5% to 0.5% in constant currency terms in Q4. The company expects to see improvement in coming quarters. Margins are expected to be range bound around as last few quarters.
  • In Q3FY2024, the company continued to book deals at a healthy pace. Q3 is a shorter quarter on account of holidays. Total bookings TCV stood at US $ 3.8 billion and large deal bookings TCV stood at US $ 0.9 billion. On a year to date basis the growth is 20%. The company booked 14 deals in greater than US$ 30 million size. In Europe the company won 4 large deals. These 4 deals added to US $ 300 million in bookings. Revenue from Europe increased 4.3% sequentially in Q3.
  • The company said that its closing employee count in IT Services stood at 240,234. Voluntary attrition has continued to be moderate QoQ, coming in at a 10- quarter low of 12.3% in Q3 FY24. Voluntary attrition measured in trailing twelve months for the quarter was at 14.2%
  • The company continues to improve its operating efficiencies. EBIT margin for the quarter stood at 16.0% despite seasonal furloughs and annual salary increases are in place. On a year to date basis margins has improved by 60 bps. Margins are maintained due to following reasons: On deliver excellence front to deliver best in class solutions for clients. The company consistently leverage 4 global business line models to create best possible ecosystem.

Risk

  • Economic Slowdown
  • High interest rate

Valuation

The company is building a more resilient, agile, and efficient organization which has helped to sustain its margins at 16%, a 63 basis point improvement on a year-to-date basis despite revenue headwinds and absorbing the impact of the investments. Moreover, under its ai360 strategy, AI is now embedded across most of its existing solutions and client offerings. The management of the company is confident that these investments would allow capitalizing on emerging opportunities, as the macro environment improves. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 610 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on an expected P/Ex of 26 and FY25 EPS of Rs.23.45.

JSW ENERGY LIMITED

CMP: 503.85

Target Price: 607

Upside: 21%

VALUE PARAMETERS
  • Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
  • 52 Week High/Low 537.90/220.65
  • M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 82866.98
  • EPS (Rs.) 9.99
  • P/E Ratio (times) 50.44
  • P/B Ratio (times) 4.17
  • Dividend Yield (%) 0.40
  • Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment rationale

  • JSW Energy Ltd and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the business of generation of power from its power assets located at Karnataka, Maharashtra, Nandyal and Salboni. It currently generates 6,677 MW, out of which 3,158 MW is thermal power, 1,391 MW is hydropower, 1,461 MW is wind and 667 MW is solar power. It is present across several Indian states and has stakes in natural resource companies in South Africa.
  • The Company is well placed to achieve 10 GW of generation capacity ahead of stated timeline of 2025 with foray into New Age Businesses. It plans to add 9.8 GW Installed Capacity by CY24, RE 5.9 GW and Thermal 3.9 GW. It has locked in 3.4 GWh capacities in energy storage, 1.0 GWh is Battery Storage and 2.4 GWh is Hydro Pump Storage. It has 1.0 GW of solar module manufacturing units and 3,800 TPA of green hydrogen & derivatives.
  • JSW Neo Energy Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary has secured capacity allocation of 6.5 KTPA for setting up of green hydrogen production facility by Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) under SIGHT scheme.
  • JSW Neo Energy has also received LoA for a Wind capacity of 500 MW from SECI for setting up of 1,350 MW ISTS-connected Wind Power Projects. The Company has set a target to reach 20 GW generation capacities and 40 GWh of energy storage capacity by 2030.
  • In Q3FY2024, overall net generation was up by 43% YoY at 6.1 BUs driven by higher thermal generation, contribution from acquired RE portfolio and Greenfield RE capacity additions. Renewable generation was up by 71% YoY at 1.4 BUs while thermal generation was up by 37% YoY at 4.7 BUs. Net Long Term Generation was up by 25% YoY driven by higher generation at Ratnagiri and RE capacity additions.
  • Revenue during the quarter increased 13% YoY to Rs. 2,661 Cr and EBITDA at Rs. 1,229 Cr was up 69% YoY driven by incremental contribution from renewable portfolio and strong thermal performance, largely driven by a buoyant merchant market. PAT increased by 29% YoY at Rs. 231 Cr.

Risk

  • Economic Slowdown
  • High Commodity Prices

Valuation

The Company plans to add 10 GW of generation capacity by CY 2025 and by 2030, it plans to add 20 GW generation capacities and 40 GWh of energy storage capacity indicating robust growth visibility. It is focusing on new age businesses to drive future growth. It has well diversified portfolio with pan India presence focusing on maximizing cash returns. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 607 in 8 to 10 months' time frame on target P/BVx of 4.45x and FY25 BVPS of Rs.136.47.

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.

6

EQUITY Beat the street - Technical Analysis

PIDILITE INDUSTRIES LIMITED (PIDILITIND)

The stock closed at Rs.2757.50 on 01st March, 2024. It made a 52-week low of Rs.2275 on 10th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.2805 on 16th January, 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.2575.

After hitting 52 week high of 2805 in January 2024, stock witnessed a series of profit booking as once again prices seen retraced back towards its 200 DEMA on daily charts to retest its previous breakout level, which was observed on weekly interval, above the long term channel. At current juncture stock has once again shown sign of recovery and has formed an Inverted head & shoulder pattern on weekly interval. The fresh breakout can also be seen above the pattern formation with the rise in volume activity. The positive divergences on secondary oscillators suggest for next upswing into the prices. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 2750-2760 levels for the upside target of 3000-3030 levels with SL below 2600 levels.

HAVELLS INDIA LIMITED (HAVELLS)

The stock closed at Rs.1515.60 on 01st March, 2024. It made a 52-week low at Rs.1131.80 on 28th March, 2023 and a 52-week high of Rs.1550 on 28th February 2024. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs.1335.

This stock has been consolidating in a broader range since 2021and fluctuating in a defined range. Additionally prices have also been holding up well above its 200 DEMA on weekly as well as on daily charts interval. Last week stock marked its 52 week high of 1550 as fresh momentum picked up above the key resistance level of 1500. The stock has given a fresh breakout after a series of prolong consolidation phase. The sudden spike in volumes along with fresh long build into the stock points towards next up swing for upcoming sessions as follow up buying is expected in a stock after a breakout. Therefore, one can buy the stock in the range of 1500-1520 levels for the upside target of 1730-1750 levels with SL below 1350 levels.


Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.

The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.

Charts by Reliable software

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

7

DERIVATIVES

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

The March series kicked off on a robust note, witnessing a notable surge in Nifty by over 1.6% during Friday's session, while Bank Nifty recorded a gain exceeding 2.5%. The preceding week saw a significant downturn in midcap and small-cap shares following SEBI's directive to AMC managers, urging them to provide investors with more comprehensive information regarding the risks associated with their small and mid-cap funds. Sectors that experienced declines in last week include Media and Healthcare, whereas Metal, Consumer Durables, and Auto emerged as the major gainers. Analysing Nifty's derivative data highest call writing seen at the 22,800 and 22,500 strikes. Conversely, put writers displayed activity, particularly at the 22,200 and 22,000 strikes. In Banknifty, the highest call open interest was observed at the 48,000 and 47,500 strikes, while on the put side, it was concentrated at the 46,500 and 47,000 strikes. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty's call options settled at 14.25%, while put options concluded at 15.02%. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 15.57%. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 1.36 for the week. The Bank Nifty's rollover rate for the March series has declined as compared to the previous one, registering at 74.24%, down from the 77.05% in the prior month. The current month's rollover for Bank Nifty is under the three-month average. Meanwhile, the Nifty's rollover is slightly lower than the preceding month, standing at 79.31%, but surpassing the three-month average for the current month. Analyzing the rollover data suggests sluggish movement in Banknifty, while Nifty is anticipated to exhibit a pattern similar to the last series. In upcoming week, Nifty may test upside resistance at 22500 whereas on downside support is placed at 22000.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)

8

DERIVATIVES

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)

SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)

FII'S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE

FI's ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT

Top 10 Long Buildup

Top 10 Short Buildup

Note: All equity derivative data as on 29th February, 2024

***The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.

# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup

# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering

9

COMMODITYOUTLOOK

SPICES

Turmeric prices witnessed sharp gains following firm cues from lingering concerns over weaker supply outlook for upcoming season. Impact of lower production is being seen on arrival pace as about 12.5 thousand tonnes of arrivals touched the major APMC market so far in Feb'24 against the 35.16 thousand tonnes of turmeric of previous year. Prevailing supply tightness is likely to lure stockists to buy turmeric at every dips in prices. Prices seasonality of turmeric suggests prices remains higher during Feb-Mar mainly due to festive buying. In wake of series of festivals ahead in coming months and commencement of wedding season demand is likely to keep buyers engage in active buying. Production is likely to be dropped by about 20% due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield. However, reports of bleak exports in recent months is likely to cap the excessive gains as turmeric export from India dropped 13% Y-o-Y in Dec'23 reported at 10.4 thousand tonnes due to lower buying from Bangladesh. India exported about 121.17 thousand tonnes of turmeric during Apr'23-Dec'23 down by 2.27% Y-o-Y. Turmeric prices are expected to face resistance near 18300 in the near term wherein support is anticipated near 16600.

Dhaniya prices extended their gains tracking improved demand in physical market as well as in overseas market. Fear of yield losses sparked with recent rainfall in northern and central part of India supported buying activities in physical market. Production is likely to be down about 10-15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield. India exported about 78.47 thousand tonnes of coriander during Apr-Dec in year 2023 compared to 24.8 tonnes of previous year up by 215% Y-o-Y. Firmness in dhaniya is likely to remain intact due to bleak supply outlook supported by lower production estimates. However, new arrivals are likely to commence in coming weeks that will cap the excessive gains. Dhaniya prices are likely to trade in range of 7320-8450.

Jeera futures traded sideways to down on bumper crop expectation ahead. Jeera prices have turned competitive at prevailing rates that attracted international buyers. Exports seasonality of jeera suggest that export demand remains higher during Feb-Mar due to strong demand prospects ahead in wake of series of festivals in Mar-Apr. Jeera export from India rose in Dec'23 with increased demand as India exported about 12.23 thousand tonnes in Dec'23 as compared to 11.79 thousand tonnes of previous year. However, overall export during Apr'24- Dec'24 remained down by 30% Y-o-Y reported at 96.7 thousand tonnes. Gains are likely to be limited in expectations of a bumper crop. Production for the year 2024-25 is likely to be increased by around 30% year-onyear, with a substantial rise in cultivation area. Jeera prices are likely to trade in range of 21000-32500.

BULLIONS

Gold held steady above $2,040 an ounce, securing its second consecutive weekly gain as the latest US inflation figures brought no surprises, thus maintaining expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. According to Thursday's data, US core PCE prices, a closely monitored inflation indicator by the Fed, increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January, accelerating from a 0.1% rise in December as widely anticipated. Additionally, New York Fed President John Williams remarked that he anticipates the central bank to lower interest rates later in the year, citing easing inflation and a robust economy. He emphasized that current economic conditions do not warrant a rate hike. With receding inflationary pressures, the Fed is primed for potential rate cuts in the coming months. Reduced rates enhance the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold. Money market indicators suggest traders are factoring in three quarter-point US rate cuts for 2024. Despite negative ETF flows, which have led to a 3.3% decline in holdings for the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust's, and a 6.4% decrease so far this year, gold prices remain supported partly due to China's central bank being the second-largest purchaser of gold reserves in the fourth quarter. On COMEX, gold prices are finding support near $2,000 and encountering resistance near $2,060. Abreak above $2,060 could propel prices towards $2,100. Silver is anticipated to trade within the range of $21.800 to $23.500. Looking ahead, Gold prices on MCX may find support near 60800 and face resistance around 62500. Meanwhile, Silver may trade in the range of 69000-72900.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Crude oil surged nearly 3% this week on the back of speculation surrounding a potential extension of supply cuts by OPEC+ and ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The upcoming OPEC+ meeting in March is eagerly awaited, with expectations that producers will maintain voluntary production limits until at least the June Ministerial Meeting to stabilize the market. Adding to market jitters, uncertainty looms over ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, along with continued Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, which have contributed to a risk premium on oil prices. Despite these bullish factors, the latest EIA report revealed a larger-than-anticipated increase in US crude stocks, climbing by 4.199 million barrels last week due to a slowdown in refinery processing. Additionally, a Reuters survey indicated that OPEC pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up 90,000 bpd from January, with Libyan output rising by 150,000 bpd month-on-month. A decision on extending the cuts is anticipated in the first week of March, with individual countries expected to announce their positions. However, mixed February purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from China, the world's leading oil consumer, tempered price gains. China's manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month, according to an official factory survey, placing pressure on Beijing policymakers to introduce further stimulus measures amidst struggles for orders. Looking ahead, oil prices may find support around 6280 and resistance near 6790 levels. Meanwhile, natural gas futures witnessed a surge of over 12% after previous losses, driven by concerns over high inventories and weak demand juxtaposed with supply anxieties. In the upcoming week, prices may continue experiencing buying interest, potentially finding support around 145 and facing resistance near 165 levels.

BASE METALS

Base metals may trade with bearish bias as demand has not picked up from China after Lunar New Year's holiday. Weakening demand and an uncertain outlook for China's property sector will likely continue to put downward pressure on the market. China's manufacturing activity in February contracted for a fifth straight month, an official factory survey showed recently, raising pressure on Beijing policymakers to roll out further stimulus measures as factory owners struggle for orders. Expectations of more economic aid have also been fuelled by weak borrowing by local governments, stirring speculation Beijing may pick up their slack and take on more debt. Copper may trade in the range of 715-740 levels. Copper inventories in SHFE warehouses more than doubled in a little more than two weeks to 181,323 tons, data showed. That is the highest level since last March. Copper treatment charges in China fell to the lowest in over a decade as domestic producers failed to implement the required voluntary production cuts. China's refined copper output surged to a record high in December after the country's expansion of its smelting and refining capacity. Zinc can trade in range of 206-222 levels. Lead can move in the range of 174-182 levels. Aluminium can trade in the range of 195-207 levels. Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $145-$155 per metric ton for April-June primary metal shipments, up 61%-72% from the current quarter. Steel long (Mar) is likely to trade in the range of 41700-43400 levels with positive bias. According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production declined by 1.6 per cent in January 2024 to 148.1 million tonnes against 150.6 mt in the corresponding period a year ago.

10

COMMODITY

TREND SHEET

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

COPPER MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: : 742.55
M*.Low: 706.05

It closed at Rs.727.15 on 29th Feb 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.726.18. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43.879. Based on both indicators, it is giving a sell signal.

One can sell near Rs.730.00 for a target of Rs.715.00 with the stop loss of 738.

CRUDE OIL MCX
Contract: MAR
M*.High: : 6598.00
M*.Low: : 5848.00

It closed at Rs.6513.00 on 29th Feb 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 6434.49. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61.933. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.6500 for a target of Rs. 6800 with the stop loss of 6350.

DHANIYA NCDEX
Contract: APR
M*.High: 9500.00
M*.Low: 7460.00

It closed at Rs.8000.00 on 29th Feb 2024. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs.7829.83. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.504. Based on both indicators, it is giving a buy signal.

One can buy near Rs.8000 for a target of Rs.8600 with the stop loss of 7700.

NOTE: *M.High / M.Low stands for Monthly High / Monthly Low

15

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

  • India's economy expanded 8.4% in the December quarter from a year earlier, compared with 7.6% growth in the previous quarter, government data showed.
  • The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, climbed to 56.9 in February, up from January's 56.5.
  • Global crude steel production declined by 1.6 per cent in January 2024 to 148.1 million tonnes (mt) against 150.6 mt in the corresponding period a year ago. According to the World Steel Association, top producer China's output plunged to 77.2 mt in November, down by 6.9 per cent from the year-ago period. India reported a 7.3 per cent rise in production at 12.5 mt.
  • The government estimated the country's production of food grains to be about 154.19 million tonnes during the kharif season and 155.12 million tonnes in the rabi season in 2023-24.
  • The Union Cabinet approved subsidy rates for phosphatic and potassic fertilizers for the upcoming Kharif season, which runs from April 1 to September 30, 2024.
  • India raised the base import prices of gold and silver as prices in the world market strengthened, while largely keeping the base price of vegetable oils steady, the government said in a statement.
  • Global aluminium producers have offered Japanese buyers premiums of $145-$155 per metric ton for AprilJune primary metal shipments, up 61%-72% from the current quarter.
  • A Reuters survey showed the OPEC pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up 90,000 bpd from January, the survey found. Libyan output rose month-on-month by 150,000 bpd

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

In the week gone by, the CRB index strengthened as the dollar index fell, supported by robust data, closing near 317. The dollar was mostly lower on weaker Durable Goods Order and GDP numbers. Gold prices saw a modest increase for the second consecutive week. Conversely, silver prices declined for the second week due to weaker base metals data. Natural gas gained much-needed support after four consecutive weeks of decline, while crude oil prices remained in positive territory with limited upside after a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles stoked worries about slow demand, while signs that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated for longer also added to pressure. Crude inventories rose for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by 4.2 million barrels to 447.2 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 23. Copper prices extended their gains for the third week, reaching 735 from 7000. Lead prices declined for the second week but saw renewed buying interest. Zinc prices continued their upward trend for the third consecutive week. Base metals showed some buying momentum on hopes that next week's annual parliamentary meeting in top consumer China could provide clues on further economic stimulus.

Castor seed prices fell for the second week, while cotton experienced a surprising rally, starting at 55000 and reaching 63500 levels following supply tightness in physical market. Arrivals pace has been down due to lower production in the domestic market. Aggressive buying by Cotton Corporation of India at MSP also helped prices to stay firm. During the cotton season 2023-24, CCI has procured 3265971 bales under MSP operation as on 21st Feb'24. Cotton oil seed cake prices rose for the third week, while the Guar market saw a retreat from higher levels due to subdued export of guar derivative products. Guar meal export dropped 43% Y-o-Y to 7.61 thousand tonnes in Dec'23 with reduced buying from Norway and Netherland. Jeera traded at multi-month lows, while turmeric continued its upward trajectory for the third consecutive week. Turmeric prices extended its gains on prevailing concerns over supply tightness in major producing states. Prices seasonality of turmeric suggests prices remains higher during Feb-Mar mainly due to festive buying. Production is likely to be dropped by about 14% due to lower area under turmeric amid tumbling yield. Exports seasonality of jeera suggest that export demand remains higher during Feb-Mar due to strong demand prospects ahead in wake of series of festivals in Mar-Apr. Dhaniya prices increased for the second week. Growing worries over quality of crop due to emerging weather risk in major producing states supported fresh buying in dhaniya. Production is likely to be down about 10- 15% Y-o-Y due to fall in area and yield.

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

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COMMODITY

Spot Prices (% Change)

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Lead…..Rising utilization within electric vehicles

Lead is widely used in batteries, cable sheaths, machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding, light industry, lead oxide, radiation protection and other industries. Car batteries account for around 80% of global lead demand. A higher electric vehicle adoption is expected to increase the foot print of the global lead market in coming years.

The Key Trends and driving force affecting the lead market

  • Automotive Industry: Lead-acid batteries are still widely used for starting, lighting, and ignition in traditional vehicles. While EV adoption is rising, the vast number of conventional vehicles ensures steady demand for lead.
  • Renewable Energy: Demand for lead in renewable energy storage solutions is growing, especially as the need for grid reliability and energy storage for solar and wind power systems rises.
  • Technological Innovations: Research and development in lead recycling and battery technologies are increasing the efficiency and sustainability of lead use.
  • The supply of lead is limited: “From the perspective of raw material supply, the supply of lead concentrates and scrap materials is limited. The price reduction of battery scrap dragged down the recycling volume,” said Shanghai Metal Market News. High energy costs (for European smelters) and stricter environmental regulations will also constrain refined lead production growth.

Global demand-supply of lead metal

  • In October 2023, the World Bank's Commodity Outlook forecast that lead prices will remain relatively stable in 2024 and 2025 amid a steady increase in supply. Mine production growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 and grow moderately in the medium-term.
  • ILZSG said global output of refined lead metal rose by 2.8 per cent in 2023, mainly as a consequence of increases in Australia, China, Germany, India and the United Arab Emirates, where new capacity has recently been commissioned. That was offset by reductions in Bulgaria, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the UK.
  • Output of refined lead metal from secondary raw material was on a par with that recorded in 2022, accounting for 66%.
  • According to preliminary data compiled by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, global supply of refined lead metal in 2023 exceeded demand by 92,000 tonnes. Inventories reported by the London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, producers, merchants and consumers rose by 123,000 tonnes and totalled 447,000 tonnes atthe year end.
  • Global demand for refined lead metal rose by 1%, with increases in Europe, China, India, Mexico and Taiwan (China) being largely offset by falls in the Republic of Korea, Turkiye and the United States.
  • Though the global lead market was oversupplied in 2023, but steady demand growth, notably in China and India, will start to outpace supply growth, which will be constrained by tighter environmental restrictions on new lead smelters
  • The trend will likely continue in 2025 as production growth will be slow, in part due to limited reopening of smelters in Europe following closures in 2022.
  • Chinese net imports of lead contained in lead concentrates rose 15% to 666,000 tonnes in 2023. Its net exports of refined lead metal increased 61% to 183,000 tonnes.
  • World lead mine production rose 1.1%. It was up in Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Peru and Australia, and down in Europe, Mexico and the US.
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    CURRENCY

    Currency Table

    Economic Gauge for the Next Week

    Major Macroeconomic Indicators

    Market Stance

    Indian Rupee traded in its narrowest monthly range to close the month of February at 82.91 diverging from global trends. This resilience suggests strong performance in rupee despite the dollar against a basket of currencies remaining weak on hope that Fed rate cut may get a delay. Going forward the Rupee is expected to continue trading in a narrow range until a decisive breakthrough occurs. However, ahead of the RBI's $5 billion USD/INR sell-buy swap maturity on March 11, the USDINR may inch above 83.00-83.10 band as well. Meanwhile the dollar index remained firm after U.S. inflation data showed gradual easing, fueling hopes of a Fed rate cut in June. The index, measuring the dollar against six rivals, was at 104.12. Strong U.S. economic data and recent reports indicating persistent price pressures led traders to revise expectations, with June now seen as the likely starting point for the Fed's easing cycle. Markets are pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut in June, compared to earlier expectations for March with 82 basis points of cuts this year, closer to the Fed's own projection of 75 bps, a significant shift from the 150 bps anticipated at the beginning of the year. Focus now turns to next week's payroll data to assess the U.S. labor market. Key to watch euro's move as disinflation trend continues across the Eurozone which may prompt ECB to look for rate cut in June. We think the dollar against euro and pound has more room to advance further while yen may trade with high volatility on hope that BoJ may twist its ultra-loose monetary policy.

    USDINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 83. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 43 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 82.6 levels, while resistance is expected near 83.35 levels.

    One can buy near 82.85 for the target of 83.35 with the stop loss of 82.6

    GBPINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Mild Bullish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 104.97. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 47 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 104 levels, while resistance is expected near 105.5 levels.

    One can sell near 105 for the target of 104 with the stop loss of 105.5

    EURINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Sideways trend as trading between its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 89.9. However, the pair is in Neutral territory with a Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 89 levels, while resistance is expected near 90.6 levels.

    One can buy near 89.6 for the target of 90.6 with the stop loss of 89.1

    JPYINR (FEB) pair is currently in an Bearish trend as trading below its major Exponential Moving Average where, the 21-day Exponential Moving Average is around 55.73. However, the pair is in Borderline territory with a Relative Strength Index (14- day) value of 40 on the daily chart. Major support is seen around 54.8 levels, while resistance is expected near 56.2 levels.

    One can sell near 55.8 for the target of 54.8 with the stop loss of 56.3

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    IPO

    IPO TRACKER

    IPO TRACKER IPO TRACKER IPO TRACKER
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    FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR

    FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES

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    MUTUAL FUND

    INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE

    Bajaj Allianz Life launches Small Cap Quality Index Fund

    Bajaj Allianz Life has launched Bajaj Allianz Life Small Cap Quality Index Fund. The fund aims to leverage the growth opportunities in small cap equities. The objective of the fund is to provide investors capital appreciation by investing in companies listed in the Nifty Small Cap 250 Quality 50 Index. The new fund offer or NFO is open for subscription and will close on March 15. The Nifty Small Cap 250 Quality 50 index has shown superior performance than the broader market indices over the medium to long term. The fund focuses solely on the top 50 small cap companies based on quality scores, considering factors such as Return on Equity (ROE), financial leverage (Debt/Equity Ratio), and Earnings (EPS) growth. This approach has the potential to lower risk compared to a pure small-cap strategy

    Mahindra Mutual Fund launches Mahindra Manulife Multi Asset Allocation Fund

    Mahindra Mutual Fund has announced the launch of Mahindra Manulife Multi Asset Allocation Fund, an open-ended scheme investing in equity, debt, gold/silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and exchange-traded commodity derivatives. The NFO of the scheme will open for subscription on February 20 and close on March 5. It will subsequently reopen for continuous sale and repurchase from March 15. The scheme aims to balance risk and reward by apportioning investments across specified asset classes and offers LTCG taxation with the benefit of indexation to investors. The scheme will be benchmarked against 45% NIFTY 500 TRI + 40% CRISIL Composite Bond Index + 10% Domestic Price of Physical Gold + 5% Domestic Price of Silver. It will be managed by Renjith Sivaram Radhakrishnan (equity), Rahul Pal (debt) and Pranav Nishith Patel (dedicated fund manager for overseas investment). The asset allocation pattern comprises equity and equity-related instruments (35-80%), debt and money market securities (10-55%), units of gold and silver ETFs and other gold and silver related instruments (10-30%) and units issued by REITs and InvITs (0-10%) with a balanced combination of asset classes that helps mitigate volatility.

    ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund launches Nifty LargeMidcap 250 Index Fund

    ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund announced the launch of ICICI Prudential Nifty LargeMidcap 250 Index Fund, an open-ended index scheme replicating the Nifty LargeMidcap 250 Index. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and will close on March 7. The scheme will re-open for continuous sale and repurchase within five business days from the date of allotment. The investment objective of the scheme is to invest in companies whose securities are included in the Nifty LargeMidcap 250 Index in the same weightage that they represent in the Nifty LargeMidcap 250 Index to achieve the returns of the above index, subject to tracking errors. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty LargeMidcap 250 TRI. It will be managed by Nishit Patel, Priya Sridhar and Kewal Shah. The exit load will be nil. The maximum total expense ratio (TER) permissible under Regulation 52 (6) (c) (i) and (6) (a) is up to 1% and additional expenses for gross new inflows from specified cities is up to 0.30%.The scheme will offer regular and direct plans with both growth and IDCW options. The minimum application amount is Rs 100 (plus in multiples of Re 1). The minimum application amount for switch-ins is Rs 100 and any amount thereafter. The minimum application amount for daily, weekly, fortnightly and monthly SIP is Rs 100 (plus in multiples of Re 1) with a minimum of six installments. The minimum application amount for quarterly SIP is Rs 100 (plus in multiples of Re 1) with a minimum of four installments.

    Kotak Mutual Fund launches long duration fund

    Kotak Mutual Fund has launched Kotak Long Duration Fund. Kotak Long Duration Fund is an open-ended debt scheme investing in instruments such that the Macaulay Duration of the portfolio is greater than 7 years with a relatively high interest rate risk and a relatively low credit risk. The new fund offer or NFO of the scheme is open for subscription and it will close on March 6. The scheme will re-open for continuous sale and repurchase on March 13. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income / capital appreciation through investments in debt and money market instruments. The scheme is benchmarked against NIFTY Long Duration Debt Index-A-III. The scheme will be managed by Abhishek Bisen and Palha Khanna (for overseas investments). No exit load will be chargeable in case of switches made between different plans/options of the scheme. The maximum total expense ratio (TER) permissible under Regulation 52 (6) (c) (i) and (6) (a) is up to 2%.

    Mirae Asset Mutual Fund file draft document for Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 ETF

    Mirae Asset Mutual Fund has filed a draft document with Sebi for the Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 ETF. Mirae Asset Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 ETF will be an open-ended scheme replicating/tracking Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 Total Return Index. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns, before expenses, that are commensurate with the performance of the Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 Total Return Index, subject to tracking error. The scheme will be benchmarked against Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 TRI (Total Return Index) and managed by Ekta Gala and Vishal Singh. The creation unit size for the scheme shall be 2,10,000 units. The minimum application amount will be Rs 5,000 per application and in multiples of Re 1 thereafter. Units will be allotted in whole figures and the balance amount will be refunded. There will be no exit load for investors transacting directly with the AMC as the exit load will be levied on redemptions made by Market Makers/ Large Investors directly with the AMC. Exit load is not applicable for investors transacting on the exchange. The scheme will invest 95-100% in securities included in the Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100 Index and 0-5% in money market instruments/debt securities, instruments and/or units of debt/liquid schemes of domestic mutual funds. The investment strategy of the scheme will be to invest in a basket of securities forming part of the Nifty MidSmallcap 400 Momentum Quality 100 Index in a similar weight proportion. The investment strategy would revolve around reducing the tracking error to the least possible through regular rebalancing of the portfolio, considering the change in weights of stocks in the index as well as the incremental collections/redemptions in the scheme. Apart of the funds may be invested in debt and money market instruments, to meet the liquidity requirements.

    NEW FUND OFFER

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    MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

    NEW FUND OFFER





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